ScoreProb
FA Cup England 1/128-finals 2026

Oxford United vs Stevenage

Oxford United Home · Elo 1,495
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Stevenage Away · Elo 1,527
Kassam Stadium, Oxford Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Stevenage win
Oxford United win
32.5%
Draw
27.1%
Stevenage winPick
40.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes50.6%
No49.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.547.9%
Under 2.552.1%

How much we know

Oxford United history79 matches
Stevenage history86 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (40.3%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Stevenage are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Stevenage are rated 32 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,527 against 1,495. On rating alone Stevenage would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.08 goals a game over 79 matches for Oxford United, against 1.08 over 86 for Stevenage.

  • Defences are close

    Oxford United concede 1.27 a game, Stevenage 1.19.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    44% of Oxford United matches, against 41% for Stevenage. The model puts this match at 48% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 26 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Oxford United
Stevenage
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1494.7
ELO
1527.1
79
ELO · Matches
86
1494.7
Current Team ELO
1527.1
1527.1
Current Opponent ELO
1494.7
-32.37
Current ELO Difference
32.37
0.45
Expected score
0.55
79
History Matches
86
0.00
Residual Mean
0.02
50.20
Overperformance
51.48
0.23
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.11
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
1.40
1.80
Goals for per game
1.00
1.20
Goals against per game
1.40
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.90
PPG
1.10
1.80
Goals for per game
0.60
1.20
Goals against per game
1.50
60.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.60
1.33
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.66
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.50
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.69
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.87
Overall performance9 signals
90
79
Matches
86
1.15
PPG
1.41
29.1%
Win rate
39.5%
27.8%
Draw rate
22.1%
43.0%
Loss rate
38.4%
68.4%
Over 1.5 rate
58.1%
44.3%
Over 2.5 rate
40.7%
21.5%
Over 3.5 rate
20.9%
1.53
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.51
Venue performance10 signals
100
41
Matches
42
1.29
PPG
1.14
34.1%
Win rate
31.0%
26.8%
Draw rate
21.4%
39.0%
Loss rate
47.6%
63.4%
Over 1.5 rate
59.5%
41.5%
Over 2.5 rate
42.9%
22.0%
Over 3.5 rate
26.2%
1.69
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.51
41
History Matches
42
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.08
Goals for per game
1.08
63.3%
Scoring rate
70.9%
49.4%
BTTS rate
48.8%
1.07
Goals for per game
0.98
63.4%
Scoring rate
64.3%
41.5%
BTTS rate
50.0%
79
History Matches
86
1.08
Goals Mean
1.08
1.05
Goals Std
1.06
63.3%
Scored 1+ rate
70.9%
31.6%
Scored 2+ rate
22.1%
10.1%
Scored 3+ rate
9.3%
1.07
Venue Goals Mean
0.98
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.27
Goals against per game
1.19
77.2%
Conceding rate
70.9%
1.22
Goals against per game
1.38
70.7%
Conceding rate
76.2%
79
History Matches
86
1.27
Conceded Mean
1.19
1.04
Conceded Std
1.11
35.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
30.2%
10.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
12.8%
1.22
Venue Conceded Mean
1.38
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
22.8%
Clean-sheet rate
29.1%
36.7%
Failed-to-score rate
29.1%
29.3%
Clean-sheet rate
23.8%
36.6%
Failed-to-score rate
35.7%
22.8%
Clean-sheet rate
29.1%
36.7%
Failed-to-score rate
29.1%
29.3%
Clean-sheet rate
23.8%
36.6%
Failed-to-score rate
35.7%
22.8%
Clean-sheet rate
29.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
79
History Matches
86
0.98
Result entropy
0.97
1.53
Goal Difference Std
1.51
1.87
Stability score
2.79
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
79
Eligible Matches
86
20
Lead Matches
22
80.0%
Lead Win Rate
86.4%
0.85
Lead Points Retention
0.91
27
Trailing Matches
19
18.5%
Non-loss rate
15.8%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
5.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
79
Halftime Coverage Matches
86
0.56
First Half Goals For Mean
0.47
0.66
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.45
0.52
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.62
0.61
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.73
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
73.84
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
12
Short Rest History Matches
5
1.42
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.20
47
Normal Rest History Matches
63
1.11
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.43
19
Long Rest History Matches
17
1.11
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
9
Competition Season Count
10
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.83
Portability PPG Std
0.41
2.00
Portability PPG Range
1.15
37.73
Portability Score
54.72
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
79
Clean History Matches
86
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-32.37
PPG-0.26
GF-0.01
GA0.08
PPG0.15
PPG0.60
PPG0.80
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-7
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Failed-to-score rate7.6%
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate5.5%
Failed-to-score rate0.9%
History Matches-7
Goals Mean-0.01
Goals Std-0.01
Scored 1+ rate-0.08
Scored 2+ rate9.6%
Scored 3+ rate0.8%
Venue Goals Mean0.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.20
Recent 10 Goals Std0.66
History Matches-7
Conceded Mean0.08
Conceded Std-0.07
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Conceded 2+ rate5.2%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Conceded Mean-0.16
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.90
History Matches-7
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std0.02
Stability score-0.92
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.12
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.18
Eligible Matches-7
Lead Matches-2
Lead Win Rate-0.06
Lead Points Retention-0.06
Trailing Matches8
Non-loss rate2.7%
Trailing Win Rate-0.05
Halftime Coverage Matches-7
First Half Goals For Mean0.09
First Half Goals Against Mean0.20
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.10
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.12
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.41
Portability PPG Range0.85
Portability Score-17.00
Rest days3.20
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches7
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.78
Normal Rest History Matches-16
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.32
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.11
Current Team ELO-32.37
Current Opponent ELO32.37
Current ELO Difference-64.75
Expected score-0.09
History Matches-7
Residual Mean-0.02
Overperformance-1.28
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.34

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Oxford United

D
Barnsley1–1Oxford United31 Oct · away
Pick: Barnsley 45% · missed
W
Oxford United1–0Stockport County27 Oct · home
Pick: Oxford United 37% · hit
D
Oxford United0–0Bradford24 Oct · home
Pick: Bradford 45% · missed
W
Oxford United2–1Wigan20 Oct · home
Pick: Oxford United 51% · hit
D
Mansfield Town1–1Oxford United15 Oct · away
Pick: Mansfield Town 43% · missed

Stevenage

D
Leicester2–2Stevenage31 Oct · away
Pick: Leicester 40% · missed
L
Stevenage0–1Milton Keynes Dons24 Oct · home
Pick: Milton Keynes Dons 37% · hit
W
Stevenage3–0Plymouth20 Oct · home
Pick: Stevenage 45% · hit
L
Bradford2–0Stevenage17 Oct · away
Pick: Bradford 56% · hit
W
Stevenage2–1Leicester6 Oct · home
Pick: Stevenage 51% · hit

About this match

Oxford United and Stevenage meet in FA Cup on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. The match is played at Kassam Stadium, Oxford. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Oxford United win 32.5%, draw 27.1%, Stevenage win 40.3%. The pick is Stevenage win. Over 2.5 goals: 47.9%. Both teams to score: 50.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.