Pardubice II vs Varnsdorf
Match result probability Model pick: Pardubice II win
Pardubice II winPick
51.0%
Draw
22.9%
Varnsdorf win
26.1%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes61.2%
No38.8%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.567.6%
Under 2.532.4%
How much we know
Pardubice II history67 matches
Varnsdorf history60 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Pardubice II
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 0 h ahead8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 08:15 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre14 Nov · 09:15 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (51.0%). Picks in that band won 55.6% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 4,146 matches.
Why Pardubice II are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
The Elo ratings are level
Elo 1,534 against 1,536. On rating alone the teams are close to even.
-
Pardubice II score more
1.82 goals a game over 67 matches for Pardubice II, against 1.62 over 60 for Varnsdorf.
-
Pardubice II concede fewer
Pardubice II concede 1.58 a game, Varnsdorf 1.80.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
67% of Pardubice II matches, against 67% for Varnsdorf. The model puts this match at 68% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 26 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Varnsdorf@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1533.5
ELO
1536.0
67
ELO · Matches
60
1533.5
Current Team ELO
1536.0
1536.0
Current Opponent ELO
1533.5
-2.48
Current ELO Difference
2.48
0.50
Expected score
0.50
67
History Matches
60
0.03
Residual Mean
0.03
51.96
Overperformance
52.53
0.13
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.15
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
2.40
PPG
1.60
2.40
Goals for per game
1.80
1.00
Goals against per game
0.80
80.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.80
PPG
1.70
2.60
Goals for per game
2.10
2.00
Goals against per game
1.50
60.0%
Win rate
50.0%
2.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.10
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.92
2.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
1.55
Recent 10 Conceded Std
2.01
0.61
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
2.15
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
3.32
Overall performance9 signals 90
67
Matches
60
1.34
PPG
1.40
38.8%
Win rate
40.0%
17.9%
Draw rate
20.0%
43.3%
Loss rate
40.0%
79.1%
Over 1.5 rate
88.3%
67.2%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
44.8%
Over 3.5 rate
40.0%
2.12
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.47
Venue performance10 signals 100
33
Matches
29
1.52
PPG
1.17
45.5%
Win rate
31.0%
15.2%
Draw rate
24.1%
39.4%
Loss rate
44.8%
78.8%
Over 1.5 rate
89.7%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
58.6%
42.4%
Over 3.5 rate
44.8%
2.20
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.47
33
History Matches
29
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
1.82
Goals for per game
1.62
80.6%
Scoring rate
76.7%
61.2%
BTTS rate
53.3%
1.94
Goals for per game
1.52
81.8%
Scoring rate
72.4%
54.5%
BTTS rate
51.7%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
67
History Matches
60
1.82
Goals Mean
1.62
1.58
Goals Std
1.39
80.6%
Scored 1+ rate
76.7%
47.8%
Scored 2+ rate
45.0%
26.9%
Scored 3+ rate
25.0%
1.94
Venue Goals Mean
1.52
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
1.58
Goals against per game
1.80
74.6%
Conceding rate
73.3%
1.42
Goals against per game
1.97
66.7%
Conceding rate
75.9%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.50
50.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
67
History Matches
60
1.58
Conceded Mean
1.80
1.32
Conceded Std
1.65
47.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
50.0%
23.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
28.3%
1.42
Venue Conceded Mean
1.97
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
25.4%
Clean-sheet rate
26.7%
19.4%
Failed-to-score rate
23.3%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
24.1%
18.2%
Failed-to-score rate
27.6%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
25.4%
Clean-sheet rate
26.7%
19.4%
Failed-to-score rate
23.3%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
24.1%
18.2%
Failed-to-score rate
27.6%
25.4%
Clean-sheet rate
26.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
67
History Matches
60
0.94
Result entropy
0.96
2.12
Goal Difference Std
2.47
5.53
Stability score
3.98
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
65
Eligible Matches
59
23
Lead Matches
18
69.6%
Lead Win Rate
83.3%
0.75
Lead Points Retention
0.85
21
Trailing Matches
22
19.0%
Non-loss rate
18.2%
9.5%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
65
Halftime Coverage Matches
59
0.75
First Half Goals For Mean
0.85
0.66
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.92
1.03
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.75
0.92
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.90
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
90.04
Rest days
80.76
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
5
Short Rest History Matches
5
1.40
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.40
34
Normal Rest History Matches
25
1.26
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.32
27
Long Rest History Matches
29
1.48
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.59
Competition & season17 signals 170
2
Matches
2
1.50
PPG
1.50
50.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
1.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.50
2
Current Competition Matches
2
1.50
Current Competition PPG
1.50
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.50
5
Competition Season Count
7
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.43
Portability PPG Std
0.43
1.11
Portability PPG Range
1.24
53.68
Portability Score
54.00
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
67
Clean History Matches
60
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-2.48
PPG-0.06
GF0.20
GA-0.22
PPG0.00
PPG0.34
PPG0.80
PPG0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches7
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Failed-to-score rate-0.04
History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate9.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.09
History Matches7
Goals Mean0.20
Goals Std0.19
Scored 1+ rate3.9%
Scored 2+ rate2.8%
Scored 3+ rate1.9%
Venue Goals Mean0.42
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.72
History Matches7
Conceded Mean-0.22
Conceded Std-0.33
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Conceded 2+ rate-0.02
Conceded 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Conceded Mean-0.54
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.46
History Matches7
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std-0.34
Stability score1.56
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.32
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.17
Eligible Matches6
Lead Matches5
Lead Win Rate-0.14
Lead Points Retention-0.10
Trailing Matches-1
Non-loss rate0.9%
Trailing Win Rate9.5%
Halftime Coverage Matches6
First Half Goals For Mean-0.09
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.25
Second Half Goals For Mean0.29
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.02
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.50
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std0.01
Portability PPG Range-0.13
Portability Score-0.32
Rest days9.28
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match1.00
Normal Rest History Matches9
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.06
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.10
Current Team ELO-2.48
Current Opponent ELO2.48
Current ELO Difference-4.95
Expected score-0.01
History Matches7
Residual Mean-0.01
Overperformance-0.57
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.02
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Pardubice II
D
Mladá Boleslav II2–2Pardubice II7 Nov · away
Pick: Mladá Boleslav II 51% · missed L
Pardubice II1–2Jablonec II1 Nov · home
Pick: Jablonec II 42% · hit W
Sokol Zápy0–4Pardubice II25 Oct · away
Pick: Sokol Zápy 61% · missed W
Pardubice II6–0Velké Hamry18 Oct · home
Pick: Pardubice II 68% · hit W
Pardubice II7–0Čáslav30 Aug · home
Pick: Pardubice II 58% · hit Varnsdorf
D
Čáslav2–2Varnsdorf1 Nov · away
Pick: Varnsdorf 42% · missed L
Varnsdorf1–3Horní Ředice28 Oct · home
Pick: Varnsdorf 58% · missed W
Varnsdorf3–2Sokol Brozany25 Oct · home
Pick: Varnsdorf 49% · hit L
Baník Souš1–0Varnsdorf17 Oct · away
Pick: Baník Souš 59% · hit D
Mladá Boleslav II1–1Varnsdorf7 Oct · away
Pick: Mladá Boleslav II 52% · missed About this match
Pardubice II and Varnsdorf meet in 3. liga - CFL B on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 09:15 UTC. The match is played at Stadion Pod Vinici, Pardubice. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Pardubice II win 51.0%, draw 22.9%, Varnsdorf win 26.1%. The pick is Pardubice II win. Over 2.5 goals: 67.6%. Both teams to score: 61.2%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.