ScoreProb
Liga 1 Indonesia Round 9 2026

Persija vs Persebaya Surabaya

Persija Home · Elo 1,588
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Persebaya Surabaya Away · Elo 1,597
Bung Karno Stadium, Jakarta Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Persebaya Surabaya win
Persija win
33.7%
Draw
28.8%
Persebaya Surabaya winPick
37.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes55.4%
No44.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.555.1%
Under 2.544.9%

How much we know

Persija history52 matches
Persebaya Surabaya history54 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (37.5%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Persebaya Surabaya are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,588 against 1,597. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.65 goals a game over 52 matches for Persija, against 1.61 over 54 for Persebaya Surabaya.

  • Defences are close

    Persija concede 1.08 a game, Persebaya Surabaya 1.04.

  • Persija games more often go over 2.5 goals

    54% of Persija matches, against 44% for Persebaya Surabaya. The model puts this match at 55% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 7 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Persija
Persebaya Surabaya
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1587.8
ELO
1596.9
52
ELO · Matches
54
1587.8
Current Team ELO
1596.9
1596.9
Current Opponent ELO
1587.8
-9.11
Current ELO Difference
9.11
0.49
Expected score
0.51
52
History Matches
54
0.08
Residual Mean
0.10
55.84
Overperformance
56.94
0.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.28
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
2.60
2.00
Goals for per game
1.20
1.40
Goals against per game
0.40
40.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
1.70
PPG
2.40
2.00
Goals for per game
2.40
1.10
Goals against per game
0.40
50.0%
Win rate
70.0%
2.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.40
1.18
Recent 10 Goals Std
2.11
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.40
0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.66
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.56
1.58
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.32
Overall performance9 signals
90
52
Matches
54
1.65
PPG
1.69
48.1%
Win rate
44.4%
21.2%
Draw rate
35.2%
30.8%
Loss rate
20.4%
78.8%
Over 1.5 rate
72.2%
53.8%
Over 2.5 rate
44.4%
32.7%
Over 3.5 rate
29.6%
1.61
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.92
Venue performance10 signals
100
25
Matches
25
1.88
PPG
1.40
52.0%
Win rate
32.0%
32.0%
Draw rate
44.0%
16.0%
Loss rate
24.0%
96.0%
Over 1.5 rate
76.0%
60.0%
Over 2.5 rate
36.0%
36.0%
Over 3.5 rate
24.0%
1.72
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.17
25
History Matches
25
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.65
Goals for per game
1.61
80.8%
Scoring rate
88.9%
51.9%
BTTS rate
55.6%
1.96
Goals for per game
1.44
88.0%
Scoring rate
80.0%
56.0%
BTTS rate
52.0%
52
History Matches
54
1.65
Goals Mean
1.61
1.16
Goals Std
1.42
80.8%
Scored 1+ rate
88.9%
51.9%
Scored 2+ rate
31.5%
28.8%
Scored 3+ rate
18.5%
1.96
Venue Goals Mean
1.44
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.08
Goals against per game
1.04
69.2%
Conceding rate
63.0%
0.96
Goals against per game
1.12
64.0%
Conceding rate
64.0%
52
History Matches
54
1.08
Conceded Mean
1.04
0.92
Conceded Std
1.09
30.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
25.9%
7.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
11.1%
0.96
Venue Conceded Mean
1.12
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
30.8%
Clean-sheet rate
37.0%
19.2%
Failed-to-score rate
11.1%
36.0%
Clean-sheet rate
36.0%
12.0%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
30.8%
Clean-sheet rate
37.0%
19.2%
Failed-to-score rate
11.1%
36.0%
Clean-sheet rate
36.0%
12.0%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
30.8%
Clean-sheet rate
37.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
52
History Matches
54
0.95
Result entropy
0.96
1.61
Goal Difference Std
1.92
5.03
Stability score
4.24
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
52
Eligible Matches
54
18
Lead Matches
15
88.9%
Lead Win Rate
73.3%
0.93
Lead Points Retention
0.82
11
Trailing Matches
10
36.4%
Non-loss rate
20.0%
18.2%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
52
Halftime Coverage Matches
54
0.62
First Half Goals For Mean
0.50
0.46
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.41
1.04
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.11
0.62
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.63
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
93.15
Rest days
92.96
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
3
1.75
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.33
27
Normal Rest History Matches
26
1.85
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.50
20
Long Rest History Matches
24
1.40
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.83
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
4
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.52
Portability PPG Std
0.52
1.27
Portability PPG Range
1.24
48.99
Portability Score
48.86
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
52
Clean History Matches
54
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-9.11
PPG-0.03
GF0.04
GA0.04
PPG0.48
PPG-1.20
PPG-0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Failed-to-score rate8.1%
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate0.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.08
History Matches-2
Goals Mean0.04
Goals Std-0.26
Scored 1+ rate-0.08
Scored 2+ rate20.4%
Scored 3+ rate10.3%
Venue Goals Mean0.52
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.92
History Matches-2
Conceded Mean0.04
Conceded Std-0.17
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Conceded 2+ rate4.8%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Conceded Mean-0.16
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.04
History Matches-2
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.31
Stability score0.79
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.38
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.75
Eligible Matches-2
Lead Matches3
Lead Win Rate15.6%
Lead Points Retention0.10
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate16.4%
Trailing Win Rate18.2%
Halftime Coverage Matches-2
First Half Goals For Mean0.12
First Half Goals Against Mean0.05
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.07
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.01
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.00
Portability PPG Range0.03
Portability Score0.14
Rest days0.19
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.58
Normal Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.35
Long Rest History Matches-4
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.43
Current Team ELO-9.11
Current Opponent ELO9.11
Current ELO Difference-18.23
Expected score-0.03
History Matches-2
Residual Mean-0.01
Overperformance-1.11
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.22

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Persija

L
Dewa United2–1Persija31 Oct · away
Pick: Dewa United 47% · hit
W
Persija2–1Persik Kediri26 Oct · home
Pick: Persija 68% · hit
W
Persija5–1Arema FC21 Oct · home
Pick: Persija 42% · hit
L
Persita3–2Persija17 Oct · away
Pick: Persija 44% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Persebaya Surabaya

D
Persebaya Surabaya1–1Persijap30 Oct · home
Pick: Persebaya Surabaya 58% · missed
W
Persebaya Surabaya3–1Persepam Madura Utd26 Oct · home
Pick: Persebaya Surabaya 51% · hit
L
PSM Makassar1–0Persebaya Surabaya22 Oct · away
Pick: Persebaya Surabaya 44% · missed
D
Persebaya Surabaya2–2PSS Sleman18 Oct · home
Pick: Persebaya Surabaya 54% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Persija and Persebaya Surabaya meet in Liga 1 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. The match is played at Bung Karno Stadium, Jakarta. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Persija win 33.7%, draw 28.8%, Persebaya Surabaya win 37.5%. The pick is Persebaya Surabaya win. Over 2.5 goals: 55.1%. Both teams to score: 55.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.