Podlasie Biała Podlaska vs Wisła Kraków II
Match result probability Model pick: Podlasie Biała Podlaska win
Podlasie Biała Podlaska winPick
50.0%
Draw
23.4%
Wisła Kraków II win
26.6%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes60.0%
No40.0%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.562.4%
Under 2.537.6%
How much we know
Podlasie Biała Podlaska history57 matches
Wisła Kraków II history49 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Podlasie Biała Podlaska
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 14:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre14 Nov · 15:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (50.0%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.
Why Podlasie Biała Podlaska are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
The Elo ratings are level
Elo 1,547 against 1,523. On rating alone the teams are close to even.
-
Scoring rates are level
1.95 goals a game over 57 matches for Podlasie Biała Podlaska, against 1.80 over 49 for Wisła Kraków II.
-
Podlasie Biała Podlaska concede fewer
Podlasie Biała Podlaska concede 1.35 a game, Wisła Kraków II 1.73.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
67% of Podlasie Biała Podlaska matches, against 65% for Wisła Kraków II. The model puts this match at 62% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Wisła Kraków II@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1547.4
ELO
1522.6
57
ELO · Matches
49
1547.4
Current Team ELO
1522.6
1522.6
Current Opponent ELO
1547.4
24.81
Current ELO Difference
-24.81
0.54
Expected score
0.46
57
History Matches
49
0.04
Residual Mean
0.02
53.32
Overperformance
51.32
-0.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.17
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
2.00
1.00
Goals for per game
1.80
1.00
Goals against per game
1.20
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
1.90
1.90
Goals for per game
1.90
1.50
Goals against per game
1.50
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.90
1.45
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.14
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
1.12
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.12
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.74
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.50
Overall performance9 signals 90
57
Matches
49
1.65
PPG
1.39
45.6%
Win rate
42.9%
28.1%
Draw rate
10.2%
26.3%
Loss rate
46.9%
91.2%
Over 1.5 rate
81.6%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
65.3%
35.1%
Over 3.5 rate
40.8%
1.78
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.15
Venue performance10 signals 100
30
Matches
26
1.63
PPG
1.15
43.3%
Win rate
34.6%
33.3%
Draw rate
11.5%
23.3%
Loss rate
53.8%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
84.6%
70.0%
Over 2.5 rate
65.4%
36.7%
Over 3.5 rate
38.5%
1.78
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.97
30
History Matches
26
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
1.95
Goals for per game
1.80
86.0%
Scoring rate
83.7%
70.2%
BTTS rate
59.2%
2.03
Goals for per game
1.54
93.3%
Scoring rate
76.9%
80.0%
BTTS rate
61.5%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.80
60.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
40.0%
BTTS rate
80.0%
57
History Matches
49
1.95
Goals Mean
1.80
1.42
Goals Std
1.46
86.0%
Scored 1+ rate
83.7%
61.4%
Scored 2+ rate
55.1%
26.3%
Scored 3+ rate
22.4%
2.03
Venue Goals Mean
1.54
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
1.35
Goals against per game
1.73
82.5%
Conceding rate
73.5%
1.43
Goals against per game
2.08
86.7%
Conceding rate
84.6%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.20
80.0%
Conceding rate
80.0%
57
History Matches
49
1.35
Conceded Mean
1.73
1.00
Conceded Std
1.50
35.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
51.0%
14.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
28.6%
1.43
Venue Conceded Mean
2.08
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
17.5%
Clean-sheet rate
26.5%
14.0%
Failed-to-score rate
16.3%
13.3%
Clean-sheet rate
15.4%
6.7%
Failed-to-score rate
23.1%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
40.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
17.5%
Clean-sheet rate
26.5%
14.0%
Failed-to-score rate
16.3%
13.3%
Clean-sheet rate
15.4%
6.7%
Failed-to-score rate
23.1%
17.5%
Clean-sheet rate
26.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
57
History Matches
49
0.97
Result entropy
0.87
1.78
Goal Difference Std
2.15
2.97
Stability score
13.43
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
57
Eligible Matches
47
26
Lead Matches
15
57.7%
Lead Win Rate
66.7%
0.67
Lead Points Retention
0.71
11
Trailing Matches
14
45.5%
Non-loss rate
21.4%
9.1%
Trailing Win Rate
21.4%
Goal timing5 signals 50
57
Halftime Coverage Matches
47
0.88
First Half Goals For Mean
0.85
0.54
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.74
1.07
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.98
0.81
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.00
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
84.00
Rest days
84.21
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
4
0.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
31
Normal Rest History Matches
25
1.74
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.36
23
Long Rest History Matches
19
1.65
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.16
Competition & season17 signals 170
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
2.00
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
20.0%
Draw rate
20.0%
40.0%
Loss rate
20.0%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
20.0%
Over 2.5 rate
60.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
20.0%
1.41
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.02
5
Current Competition Matches
5
1.40
Current Competition PPG
2.00
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.60
5
Competition Season Count
4
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.24
Portability PPG Std
0.50
0.60
Portability PPG Range
1.40
67.18
Portability Score
49.88
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
57
Clean History Matches
49
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO24.81
PPG0.26
GF0.15
GA-0.38
PPG-0.60
PPG0.48
PPG-0.60
PPG-0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches8
Clean-sheet rate-0.09
Failed-to-score rate-0.02
History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Failed-to-score rate-0.16
History Matches8
Goals Mean0.15
Goals Std-0.04
Scored 1+ rate2.3%
Scored 2+ rate6.3%
Scored 3+ rate3.9%
Venue Goals Mean0.49
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Std0.31
History Matches8
Conceded Mean-0.38
Conceded Std-0.50
Clean-sheet rate-0.09
Conceded 2+ rate-0.16
Conceded 3+ rate-0.15
Venue Conceded Mean-0.64
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.00
History Matches8
Result entropy0.10
Goal Difference Std-0.38
Stability score-10.46
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.14
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.25
Eligible Matches10
Lead Matches11
Lead Win Rate-0.09
Lead Points Retention-0.04
Trailing Matches-3
Non-loss rate24.0%
Trailing Win Rate-0.12
Halftime Coverage Matches10
First Half Goals For Mean0.03
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.20
Second Half Goals For Mean0.09
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.19
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.60
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.60
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std-0.26
Portability PPG Range-0.80
Portability Score17.30
Rest days-0.21
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Short Rest Points Per Match-2.50
Normal Rest History Matches6
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.38
Long Rest History Matches4
Long Rest Points Per Match0.49
Current Team ELO24.81
Current Opponent ELO-24.81
Current ELO Difference49.62
Expected score0.07
History Matches8
Residual Mean0.03
Overperformance2.00
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.21
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Podlasie Biała Podlaska
L
Podlasie Biała Podlaska0–4Moravia Morawica30 Oct · home
Pick: Podlasie Biała Podlaska 75% · missed L
Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów2–0Podlasie Biała Podlaska25 Oct · away
Pick: Podlasie Biała Podlaska 44% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
Wisła Kraków II
W
KS Wieczysta Krakow II1–2Wisła Kraków II30 Oct · away
Pick: Wisła Kraków II 40% · hit W
Wisła Kraków II3–1Wisłoka Dębica24 Oct · home
Pick: Wisła Kraków II 49% · hit L
Sokół Kolb.1–0Wisła Kraków II17 Oct · away
Pick: Wisła Kraków II 44% · missed L
Busko-Zdroj3–0Wisła Kraków II4 Oct · away
Pick: Wisła Kraków II 42% · missed D
Naprzód0–0Wisła Kraków II30 Aug · away
Pick: Wisła Kraków II 50% · missed About this match
Podlasie Biała Podlaska and Wisła Kraków II meet in III Liga - Group 4 on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Podlasie Biała Podlaska win 50.0%, draw 23.4%, Wisła Kraków II win 26.6%. The pick is Podlasie Biała Podlaska win. Over 2.5 goals: 62.4%. Both teams to score: 60.0%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.