ScoreProb
Log in
III Liga - Group 4 Poland Group IV - 17 2026

Sokół Kolb. vs Busko-Zdroj

Sokół Kolb. Home · Elo 1,472
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Busko-Zdroj Away · Elo 1,484
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Sokół Kolb. win
Sokół Kolb. winPick
55.0%
Draw
20.4%
Busko-Zdroj win
24.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes55.3%
No44.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.561.8%
Under 2.538.2%

How much we know

Sokół Kolb. history44 matches
Busko-Zdroj history8 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (55.0%). Picks in that band won 55.6% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 4,146 matches.

Why Sokół Kolb. are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,472 against 1,484. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Busko-Zdroj score more

    1.07 goals a game over 44 matches for Sokół Kolb., against 1.63 over 8 for Busko-Zdroj.

  • Sokół Kolb. concede fewer

    Sokół Kolb. concede 1.68 a game, Busko-Zdroj 2.13.

  • Busko-Zdroj games more often go over 2.5 goals

    55% of Sokół Kolb. matches, against 75% for Busko-Zdroj. The model puts this match at 62% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Sokół Kolb.
Busko-Zdroj@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1472.3
ELO
1483.9
44
ELO · Matches
8
1472.3
Current Team ELO
1483.9
1483.9
Current Opponent ELO
1472.3
-11.63
Current ELO Difference
11.63
0.48
Expected score
0.52
44
History Matches
8
-0.03
Residual Mean
-0.08
47.99
Overperformance
47.76
0.20
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.08
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
1.00
1.20
Goals for per game
1.40
1.40
Goals against per game
1.80
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
8
1.80
PPG
1.00
1.40
Goals for per game
1.63
1.00
Goals against per game
2.13
50.0%
Win rate
25.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.63
0.66
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.87
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.13
0.77
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.27
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.95
1.20
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.78
Overall performance9 signals
90
44
Matches
8
1.05
PPG
1.00
29.5%
Win rate
25.0%
15.9%
Draw rate
25.0%
54.5%
Loss rate
50.0%
84.1%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
54.5%
Over 2.5 rate
75.0%
22.7%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
1.85
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.78
Venue performance10 signals
100
22
Matches
3
1.23
PPG
1.33
36.4%
Win rate
33.3%
13.6%
Draw rate
33.3%
50.0%
Loss rate
33.3%
81.8%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
59.1%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
22.7%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
1.91
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.25
22
History Matches
3
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.07
Goals for per game
1.63
68.2%
Scoring rate
75.0%
52.3%
BTTS rate
75.0%
1.32
Goals for per game
1.67
77.3%
Scoring rate
100.0%
59.1%
BTTS rate
100.0%
1.20
Goals for per game
1.40
80.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
60.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
44
History Matches
8
1.07
Goals Mean
1.63
0.96
Goals Std
1.87
68.2%
Scored 1+ rate
75.0%
29.5%
Scored 2+ rate
25.0%
6.8%
Scored 3+ rate
25.0%
1.32
Venue Goals Mean
1.67
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.68
Goals against per game
2.13
81.8%
Conceding rate
100.0%
1.55
Goals against per game
1.33
77.3%
Conceding rate
100.0%
1.40
Goals against per game
1.80
80.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
44
History Matches
8
1.68
Conceded Mean
2.13
1.29
Conceded Std
1.27
52.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
50.0%
18.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
37.5%
1.55
Venue Conceded Mean
1.33
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
18.2%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
31.8%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
22.7%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
22.7%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
18.2%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
31.8%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
22.7%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
22.7%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
18.2%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
44
History Matches
8
0.90
Result entropy
0.95
1.85
Goal Difference Std
2.78
10.50
Stability score
5.36
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
44
Eligible Matches
8
13
Lead Matches
3
76.9%
Lead Win Rate
66.7%
0.79
Lead Points Retention
0.78
16
Trailing Matches
3
0.0%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
44
Halftime Coverage Matches
8
0.57
First Half Goals For Mean
1.00
0.70
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.75
0.50
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.63
0.98
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.38
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
82.85
Rest days
83.83
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
0
0.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
22
Normal Rest History Matches
5
1.09
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.40
19
Long Rest History Matches
2
0.95
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.50
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
1.00
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
40.0%
Draw rate
40.0%
40.0%
Loss rate
40.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
40.0%
Over 2.5 rate
60.0%
20.0%
Over 3.5 rate
40.0%
1.33
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.62
5
Current Competition Matches
5
1.00
Current Competition PPG
1.00
-0.20
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.40
3
Competition Season Count
2
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.07
Portability PPG Std
0.00
0.17
Portability PPG Range
0.00
87.34
Portability Score
100.0
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
44
Clean History Matches
8
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-11.63
PPG0.05
GF-0.56
GA-0.44
PPG0.00
PPG-0.11
PPG0.00
PPG0.80
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches36
Clean-sheet rate18.2%
Failed-to-score rate6.8%
History Matches19
Clean-sheet rate22.7%
Failed-to-score rate22.7%
History Matches36
Goals Mean-0.56
Goals Std-0.90
Scored 1+ rate-0.07
Scored 2+ rate4.5%
Scored 3+ rate-0.18
Venue Goals Mean-0.35
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.23
Recent 10 Goals Std-1.20
History Matches36
Conceded Mean-0.44
Conceded Std0.02
Clean-sheet rate18.2%
Conceded 2+ rate2.3%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.19
Venue Conceded Mean0.21
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.13
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.49
History Matches36
Result entropy-0.05
Goal Difference Std-0.93
Stability score5.14
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.01
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.58
Eligible Matches36
Lead Matches10
Lead Win Rate10.3%
Lead Points Retention0.02
Trailing Matches13
Non-loss rate0.0%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches36
First Half Goals For Mean-0.43
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.05
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.13
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.40
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.20
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.07
Portability PPG Range0.17
Portability Score-12.66
Rest days-0.98
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest History Matches17
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.31
Long Rest History Matches17
Long Rest Points Per Match0.45
Current Team ELO-11.63
Current Opponent ELO11.63
Current ELO Difference-23.26
Expected score-0.03
History Matches36
Residual Mean0.05
Overperformance0.23
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.28

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Sokół Kolb.

L
Sokół Kolb.0–2Hetman Zamosc31 Oct · home
Pick: Sokół Kolb. 42% · missed
L
KSZO 19292–1Sokół Kolb.24 Oct · away
Pick: KSZO 1929 66% · hit
W
Sokół Kolb.1–0Wisła Kraków II17 Oct · home
Pick: Wisła Kraków II 44% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Busko-Zdroj

L
Busko-Zdroj0–3Chełmianka Chełm31 Oct · home
Pick: Chełmianka Chełm 63% · hit
L
Czarni Połaniec2–1Busko-Zdroj24 Oct · away
Pick: Czarni Połaniec 61% · hit
L
Busko-Zdroj2–4Hetman Zamosc18 Oct · home
Pick: Hetman Zamosc 38% · hit
W
Busko-Zdroj3–0Wisła Kraków II4 Oct · home
Pick: Wisła Kraków II 42% · missed
L
Korona Kielce II4–1Busko-Zdroj29 Aug · away
Pick: Korona Kielce II 55% · hit

About this match

Sokół Kolb. and Busko-Zdroj meet in III Liga - Group 4 on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Sokół Kolb. win 55.0%, draw 20.4%, Busko-Zdroj win 24.6%. The pick is Sokół Kolb. win. Over 2.5 goals: 61.8%. Both teams to score: 55.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.