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III Liga - Group 4 Poland Group IV - 17 2026

Siarka Tarnobrzeg vs KSZO 1929

Siarka Tarnobrzeg Home · Elo 1,448
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
KSZO 1929 Away · Elo 1,624
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: KSZO 1929 win
Siarka Tarnobrzeg win
31.1%
Draw
20.7%
KSZO 1929 winPick
48.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes62.0%
No38.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.565.6%
Under 2.534.4%

How much we know

Siarka Tarnobrzeg history63 matches
KSZO 1929 history68 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (48.2%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.

Why KSZO 1929 are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • KSZO 1929 are rated 176 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,624 against 1,448. On rating alone KSZO 1929 would be expected to take 73% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    2.10 goals a game over 63 matches for Siarka Tarnobrzeg, against 1.90 over 68 for KSZO 1929.

  • KSZO 1929 concede fewer

    Siarka Tarnobrzeg concede 1.57 a game, KSZO 1929 1.03.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    67% of Siarka Tarnobrzeg matches, against 62% for KSZO 1929. The model puts this match at 66% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Siarka Tarnobrzeg
KSZO 1929@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1447.8
ELO
1623.8
63
ELO · Matches
68
1447.8
Current Team ELO
1623.8
1623.8
Current Opponent ELO
1447.8
-176.0
Current ELO Difference
176.0
0.27
Expected score
0.73
63
History Matches
68
-0.03
Residual Mean
0.09
48.08
Overperformance
57.16
-0.30
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.03
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
2.20
1.20
Goals for per game
1.40
1.60
Goals against per game
0.80
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
0.50
PPG
1.80
1.60
Goals for per game
1.70
2.30
Goals against per game
1.10
10.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.70
1.69
Recent 10 Goals Std
2.00
2.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
1.68
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.94
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.42
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.15
Overall performance9 signals
90
63
Matches
68
1.30
PPG
1.99
33.3%
Win rate
58.8%
30.2%
Draw rate
22.1%
36.5%
Loss rate
19.1%
85.7%
Over 1.5 rate
76.5%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
61.8%
52.4%
Over 3.5 rate
29.4%
2.49
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.69
Venue performance10 signals
100
37
Matches
32
1.38
PPG
1.91
37.8%
Win rate
56.3%
24.3%
Draw rate
21.9%
37.8%
Loss rate
21.9%
89.2%
Over 1.5 rate
78.1%
75.7%
Over 2.5 rate
62.5%
64.9%
Over 3.5 rate
28.1%
2.77
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.58
37
History Matches
32
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.10
Goals for per game
1.90
77.8%
Scoring rate
83.8%
65.1%
BTTS rate
58.8%
2.51
Goals for per game
1.78
86.5%
Scoring rate
81.3%
67.6%
BTTS rate
59.4%
1.20
Goals for per game
1.40
60.0%
Scoring rate
80.0%
60.0%
BTTS rate
40.0%
63
History Matches
68
2.10
Goals Mean
1.90
2.04
Goals Std
1.48
77.8%
Scored 1+ rate
83.8%
52.4%
Scored 2+ rate
57.4%
30.2%
Scored 3+ rate
23.5%
2.51
Venue Goals Mean
1.78
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.57
Goals against per game
1.03
79.4%
Conceding rate
66.2%
1.62
Goals against per game
1.16
78.4%
Conceding rate
68.8%
1.60
Goals against per game
0.80
100.0%
Conceding rate
40.0%
63
History Matches
68
1.57
Conceded Mean
1.03
1.26
Conceded Std
0.97
49.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
26.5%
17.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
8.8%
1.62
Venue Conceded Mean
1.16
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
20.6%
Clean-sheet rate
33.8%
22.2%
Failed-to-score rate
16.2%
21.6%
Clean-sheet rate
31.3%
13.5%
Failed-to-score rate
18.8%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
60.0%
40.0%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
20.6%
Clean-sheet rate
33.8%
22.2%
Failed-to-score rate
16.2%
21.6%
Clean-sheet rate
31.3%
13.5%
Failed-to-score rate
18.8%
20.6%
Clean-sheet rate
33.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
63
History Matches
68
1.00
Result entropy
0.88
2.49
Goal Difference Std
1.69
0.28
Stability score
12.45
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
62
Eligible Matches
67
26
Lead Matches
24
73.1%
Lead Win Rate
87.5%
0.77
Lead Points Retention
0.90
18
Trailing Matches
14
44.4%
Non-loss rate
42.9%
5.6%
Trailing Win Rate
21.4%
Goal timing5 signals
50
62
Halftime Coverage Matches
67
1.13
First Half Goals For Mean
0.75
0.66
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.45
0.98
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.07
0.92
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.58
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
82.85
Rest days
82.83
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
4
1.33
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.75
36
Normal Rest History Matches
34
1.36
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.12
23
Long Rest History Matches
29
1.22
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.03
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
2.20
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
20.0%
Draw rate
40.0%
60.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
40.0%
40.0%
Over 2.5 rate
40.0%
40.0%
Over 3.5 rate
40.0%
1.85
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.49
5
Current Competition Matches
5
0.80
Current Competition PPG
2.20
-0.40
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.60
6
Competition Season Count
6
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.35
Portability PPG Std
0.44
1.00
Portability PPG Range
1.20
59.06
Portability Score
53.42
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
63
Clean History Matches
68
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-176.0
PPG-0.68
GF0.20
GA0.54
PPG-1.40
PPG-0.53
PPG-1.40
PPG-1.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-5
Clean-sheet rate-0.13
Failed-to-score rate6.0%
History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate-0.10
Failed-to-score rate-0.05
History Matches-5
Goals Mean0.20
Goals Std0.57
Scored 1+ rate-0.06
Scored 2+ rate-0.05
Scored 3+ rate6.6%
Venue Goals Mean0.73
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.32
History Matches-5
Conceded Mean0.54
Conceded Std0.29
Clean-sheet rate-0.13
Conceded 2+ rate22.7%
Conceded 3+ rate8.6%
Venue Conceded Mean0.47
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.73
History Matches-5
Result entropy0.12
Goal Difference Std0.80
Stability score-12.17
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.21
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.74
Eligible Matches-5
Lead Matches2
Lead Win Rate-0.14
Lead Points Retention-0.13
Trailing Matches4
Non-loss rate1.6%
Trailing Win Rate-0.16
Halftime Coverage Matches-5
First Half Goals For Mean0.38
First Half Goals Against Mean0.21
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.09
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.34
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.40
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.00
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.09
Portability PPG Range-0.20
Portability Score5.65
Rest days0.02
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match0.58
Normal Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.76
Long Rest History Matches-6
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.82
Current Team ELO-176.0
Current Opponent ELO176.0
Current ELO Difference-352.0
Expected score-0.47
History Matches-5
Residual Mean-0.12
Overperformance-9.08
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.33

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Siarka Tarnobrzeg

D
Siarka Tarnobrzeg1–1Naprzód31 Oct · home
Pick: Siarka Tarnobrzeg 57% · missed
W
Siarka Tarnobrzeg1–0Lech Poznan28 Oct · home
Pick: Lech Poznan 54% · missed
W
Moravia Morawica2–3Siarka Tarnobrzeg24 Oct · away
Pick: Siarka Tarnobrzeg 41% · hit
W
Siarka Tarnobrzeg4–0Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów17 Oct · home
Pick: Siarka Tarnobrzeg 52% · hit
W
Siarka Tarnobrzeg3–2Zaglebie Lubin1 Sep · home
Pick: Zaglebie Lubin 44% · missed

KSZO 1929

L
Wisłoka Dębica2–1KSZO 192931 Oct · away
Pick: KSZO 1929 47% · missed
W
KSZO 19292–1Sokół Kolb.24 Oct · home
Pick: KSZO 1929 66% · hit
W
Jarosław1–3KSZO 192917 Oct · away
Pick: KSZO 1929 38% · hit
W
Moravia Morawica0–4KSZO 192930 Aug · away
Pick: KSZO 1929 61% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Siarka Tarnobrzeg and KSZO 1929 meet in III Liga - Group 4 on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Siarka Tarnobrzeg win 31.1%, draw 20.7%, KSZO 1929 win 48.2%. The pick is KSZO 1929 win. Over 2.5 goals: 65.6%. Both teams to score: 62.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.