ScoreProb
Championship England Round 15 2026

Preston vs Southampton

Preston Home · Elo 1,417
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Southampton Away · Elo 1,608
Deepdale, Preston Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Southampton win
Preston win
27.9%
Draw
22.1%
Southampton winPick
50.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes55.2%
No44.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.551.6%
Under 2.548.4%

How much we know

Preston history80 matches
Southampton history82 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (50.0%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Southampton are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Southampton are rated 191 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,608 against 1,417. On rating alone Southampton would be expected to take 75% of the points on offer.

  • Southampton score more

    1.10 goals a game over 80 matches for Preston, against 1.50 over 82 for Southampton.

  • Defences are close

    Preston concede 1.40 a game, Southampton 1.38.

  • Southampton games more often go over 2.5 goals

    50% of Preston matches, against 62% for Southampton. The model puts this match at 52% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 26 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Preston
Southampton
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1416.8
ELO
1607.5
80
ELO · Matches
82
1416.8
Current Team ELO
1607.5
1607.5
Current Opponent ELO
1416.8
-190.8
Current ELO Difference
190.8
0.25
Expected score
0.75
80
History Matches
82
-0.05
Residual Mean
0.06
45.99
Overperformance
54.99
-0.25
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.03
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.20
PPG
1.80
1.00
Goals for per game
1.80
2.00
Goals against per game
1.60
0.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
0.40
PPG
2.00
1.20
Goals for per game
1.70
2.10
Goals against per game
1.10
10.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.70
1.17
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.00
2.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
0.94
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.14
0.58
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.51
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.56
Overall performance9 signals
90
80
Matches
82
1.06
PPG
1.48
25.0%
Win rate
40.2%
31.3%
Draw rate
26.8%
43.8%
Loss rate
32.9%
76.3%
Over 1.5 rate
85.4%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
62.2%
22.5%
Over 3.5 rate
31.7%
1.39
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.74
Venue performance10 signals
100
40
Matches
43
1.18
PPG
1.51
27.5%
Win rate
44.2%
35.0%
Draw rate
18.6%
37.5%
Loss rate
37.2%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
90.7%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
67.4%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
34.9%
1.47
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.78
40
History Matches
43
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.10
Goals for per game
1.50
70.0%
Scoring rate
84.1%
57.5%
BTTS rate
68.3%
1.18
Goals for per game
1.60
70.0%
Scoring rate
88.4%
57.5%
BTTS rate
74.4%
1.00
Goals for per game
2.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
80
History Matches
82
1.10
Goals Mean
1.50
0.96
Goals Std
1.16
70.0%
Scored 1+ rate
84.1%
30.0%
Scored 2+ rate
39.0%
8.8%
Scored 3+ rate
18.3%
1.18
Venue Goals Mean
1.60
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.40
Goals against per game
1.38
80.0%
Conceding rate
78.0%
1.30
Goals against per game
1.51
77.5%
Conceding rate
83.7%
2.50
Goals against per game
1.50
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
80
History Matches
82
1.40
Conceded Mean
1.38
0.98
Conceded Std
1.08
45.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
40.2%
13.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
14.6%
1.30
Venue Conceded Mean
1.51
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
22.0%
30.0%
Failed-to-score rate
15.9%
22.5%
Clean-sheet rate
16.3%
30.0%
Failed-to-score rate
11.6%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
22.0%
30.0%
Failed-to-score rate
15.9%
22.5%
Clean-sheet rate
16.3%
30.0%
Failed-to-score rate
11.6%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
22.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
80
History Matches
82
0.98
Result entropy
0.99
1.39
Goal Difference Std
1.74
2.45
Stability score
1.23
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
80
Eligible Matches
82
23
Lead Matches
25
52.2%
Lead Win Rate
76.0%
0.64
Lead Points Retention
0.80
28
Trailing Matches
22
21.4%
Non-loss rate
40.9%
7.1%
Trailing Win Rate
22.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
80
Halftime Coverage Matches
82
0.49
First Half Goals For Mean
0.65
0.61
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.56
0.61
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.85
0.79
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.82
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
73.84
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
10
Short Rest History Matches
6
1.20
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.17
53
Normal Rest History Matches
57
1.04
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.39
16
Long Rest History Matches
18
1.13
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.44
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
0.00
PPG
1.50
0.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
0.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.50
2
Current Competition Matches
2
0.00
Current Competition PPG
1.50
-1.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.50
9
Competition Season Count
9
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.36
Portability PPG Std
0.88
0.83
Portability PPG Range
2.60
58.42
Portability Score
36.35
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
80
Clean History Matches
82
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-190.8
PPG-0.41
GF-0.40
GA0.02
PPG-1.50
PPG-0.34
PPG-1.60
PPG-1.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Failed-to-score rate14.1%
History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate6.2%
Failed-to-score rate18.4%
History Matches-2
Goals Mean-0.40
Goals Std-0.20
Scored 1+ rate-0.14
Scored 2+ rate-0.09
Scored 3+ rate-0.10
Venue Goals Mean-0.43
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std0.16
History Matches-2
Conceded Mean0.02
Conceded Std-0.10
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Conceded 2+ rate4.8%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Conceded Mean-0.21
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.19
History Matches-2
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.35
Stability score1.21
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.28
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.05
Eligible Matches-2
Lead Matches-2
Lead Win Rate-0.24
Lead Points Retention-0.16
Trailing Matches6
Non-loss rate-0.19
Trailing Win Rate-0.16
Halftime Coverage Matches-2
First Half Goals For Mean-0.16
First Half Goals Against Mean0.05
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.24
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.03
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-2.00
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Portability PPG Std-0.52
Portability PPG Range-1.77
Portability Score22.06
Rest days3.20
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches4
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.97
Normal Rest History Matches-4
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.35
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.32
Current Team ELO-190.8
Current Opponent ELO190.8
Current ELO Difference-381.6
Expected score-0.50
History Matches-2
Residual Mean-0.11
Overperformance-9.00
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.27

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Preston

L
Preston2–3Sheffield Utd3 Nov · home
Pick: Sheffield Utd 52% · hit
L
Stoke City2–0Preston31 Oct · away
Pick: Stoke City 43% · hit
D
Preston1–1West Brom24 Oct · home
Pick: West Brom 44% · missed
L
Wrexham4–1Preston17 Oct · away
Pick: Wrexham 64% · hit
L
Birmingham4–0Preston13 Oct · away
Pick: Birmingham 63% · hit

Southampton

D
West Brom1–1Southampton3 Nov · away
Pick: West Brom 45% · missed
W
Southampton4–1QPR31 Oct · home
Pick: Southampton 49% · hit
W
West Ham2–3Southampton24 Oct · away
Pick: Southampton 39% · hit
D
Southampton0–0Bolton17 Oct · home
Pick: Southampton 43% · missed
W
Norwich0–1Southampton14 Oct · away
Pick: Southampton 43% · hit

About this match

Preston and Southampton meet in Championship on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. The match is played at Deepdale, Preston. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Preston win 27.9%, draw 22.1%, Southampton win 50.0%. The pick is Southampton win. Over 2.5 goals: 51.6%. Both teams to score: 55.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.