ScoreProb
I Liga Poland Round 14 2026

Puszcza Niepołomice vs Miedz Legnica

Puszcza Niepołomice Home · Elo 1,486
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Miedz Legnica Away · Elo 1,532
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Miedz Legnica win
Puszcza Niepołomice win
28.8%
Draw
21.5%
Miedz Legnica winPick
49.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes54.8%
No45.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.556.3%
Under 2.543.7%

How much we know

Puszcza Niepołomice history75 matches
Miedz Legnica history75 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 8 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 17:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (49.8%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Miedz Legnica are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Miedz Legnica are rated 46 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,532 against 1,486. On rating alone Miedz Legnica would be expected to take 57% of the points on offer.

  • Miedz Legnica score more

    1.27 goals a game over 75 matches for Puszcza Niepołomice, against 1.53 over 75 for Miedz Legnica.

  • Defences are close

    Puszcza Niepołomice concede 1.60 a game, Miedz Legnica 1.55.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    57% of Puszcza Niepołomice matches, against 64% for Miedz Legnica. The model puts this match at 56% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Puszcza Niepołomice
Miedz Legnica
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1485.6
ELO
1532.1
75
ELO · Matches
75
1485.6
Current Team ELO
1532.1
1532.1
Current Opponent ELO
1485.6
-46.44
Current ELO Difference
46.44
0.43
Expected score
0.57
75
History Matches
75
0.00
Residual Mean
0.02
49.65
Overperformance
51.96
-0.18
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.15
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
2.00
0.60
Goals for per game
1.60
1.40
Goals against per game
0.40
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
0.90
PPG
1.70
0.90
Goals for per game
1.60
1.60
Goals against per game
1.10
30.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
1.45
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.02
1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.94
0.56
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.95
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.50
Overall performance9 signals
90
75
Matches
75
1.20
PPG
1.51
30.7%
Win rate
44.0%
28.0%
Draw rate
18.7%
41.3%
Loss rate
37.3%
85.3%
Over 1.5 rate
88.0%
57.3%
Over 2.5 rate
64.0%
26.7%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
1.91
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.80
Venue performance10 signals
100
39
Matches
36
1.38
PPG
1.17
35.9%
Win rate
33.3%
30.8%
Draw rate
16.7%
33.3%
Loss rate
50.0%
79.5%
Over 1.5 rate
86.1%
56.4%
Over 2.5 rate
63.9%
23.1%
Over 3.5 rate
30.6%
1.75
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.99
39
History Matches
36
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.27
Goals for per game
1.53
72.0%
Scoring rate
78.7%
60.0%
BTTS rate
62.7%
1.38
Goals for per game
1.17
76.9%
Scoring rate
66.7%
61.5%
BTTS rate
47.2%
0.60
Goals for per game
1.60
20.0%
Scoring rate
80.0%
20.0%
BTTS rate
20.0%
75
History Matches
75
1.27
Goals Mean
1.53
1.11
Goals Std
1.15
72.0%
Scored 1+ rate
78.7%
36.0%
Scored 2+ rate
52.0%
13.3%
Scored 3+ rate
17.3%
1.38
Venue Goals Mean
1.17
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.60
Goals against per game
1.55
85.3%
Conceding rate
81.3%
1.38
Goals against per game
1.72
82.1%
Conceding rate
75.0%
1.40
Goals against per game
0.40
100.0%
Conceding rate
40.0%
75
History Matches
75
1.60
Conceded Mean
1.55
1.34
Conceded Std
1.17
41.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
45.3%
20.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
20.0%
1.38
Venue Conceded Mean
1.72
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
14.7%
Clean-sheet rate
18.7%
28.0%
Failed-to-score rate
21.3%
17.9%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
23.1%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
60.0%
80.0%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
14.7%
Clean-sheet rate
18.7%
28.0%
Failed-to-score rate
21.3%
17.9%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
23.1%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
14.7%
Clean-sheet rate
18.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
75
History Matches
75
0.99
Result entropy
0.95
1.91
Goal Difference Std
1.80
1.32
Stability score
5.12
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
74
Eligible Matches
73
20
Lead Matches
22
70.0%
Lead Win Rate
77.3%
0.75
Lead Points Retention
0.82
26
Trailing Matches
22
26.9%
Non-loss rate
27.3%
7.7%
Trailing Win Rate
4.5%
Goal timing5 signals
50
74
Halftime Coverage Matches
73
0.55
First Half Goals For Mean
0.66
0.81
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.73
0.73
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.88
0.77
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.79
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
75.08
Rest days
75.19
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
7
Short Rest History Matches
8
1.71
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.88
41
Normal Rest History Matches
37
1.17
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.59
26
Long Rest History Matches
29
1.04
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.52
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
2.00
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
20.0%
80.0%
Loss rate
20.0%
40.0%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
40.0%
Over 2.5 rate
20.0%
20.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.60
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.47
5
Current Competition Matches
5
0.60
Current Competition PPG
2.00
-0.80
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.20
7
Competition Season Count
6
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.53
Portability PPG Std
0.46
1.40
Portability PPG Range
1.25
48.58
Portability Score
52.11
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
75
Clean History Matches
75
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-46.44
PPG-0.31
GF-0.27
GA0.05
PPG-1.40
PPG0.22
PPG-1.40
PPG-0.80
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Failed-to-score rate6.7%
History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate-0.07
Failed-to-score rate-0.10
History Matches0
Goals Mean-0.27
Goals Std-0.04
Scored 1+ rate-0.07
Scored 2+ rate-0.16
Scored 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Goals Mean0.22
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std0.43
History Matches0
Conceded Mean0.05
Conceded Std0.17
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Conceded 2+ rate-0.04
Conceded 3+ rate0.0%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.34
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.14
History Matches0
Result entropy0.04
Goal Difference Std0.11
Stability score-3.80
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.38
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.45
Eligible Matches1
Lead Matches-2
Lead Win Rate-0.07
Lead Points Retention-0.07
Trailing Matches4
Non-loss rate0.00
Trailing Win Rate3.1%
Halftime Coverage Matches1
First Half Goals For Mean-0.10
First Half Goals Against Mean0.08
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.15
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.02
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.40
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-2.00
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.07
Portability PPG Range0.15
Portability Score-3.53
Rest days-0.10
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match0.84
Normal Rest History Matches4
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.42
Long Rest History Matches-3
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.48
Current Team ELO-46.44
Current Opponent ELO46.44
Current ELO Difference-92.87
Expected score-0.13
History Matches0
Residual Mean-0.03
Overperformance-2.31
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.34

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Puszcza Niepołomice

D
Stal Rzeszów2–2Puszcza Niepołomice2 Nov · away
Pick: Puszcza Niepołomice 44% · missed
W
Puszcza Niepołomice2–1Lechia Gdansk24 Oct · home
Pick: Puszcza Niepołomice 50% · hit
L
Nieciecza2–0Puszcza Niepołomice19 Oct · away
Pick: Nieciecza 48% · hit
W
Pogoń Siedlce1–3Puszcza Niepołomice15 Oct · away
Pick: Pogoń Siedlce 50% · missed
W
Wisła Płock II0–2Puszcza Niepołomice1 Sep · away
Pick: Puszcza Niepołomice 49% · hit

Miedz Legnica

D
Miedz Legnica1–1Nieciecza31 Oct · home
Pick: Miedz Legnica 54% · missed
D
Polonia Warszawa1–1Miedz Legnica23 Oct · away
Pick: Polonia Warszawa 40% · missed
W
Miedz Legnica3–0Stal Mielec17 Oct · home
Pick: Miedz Legnica 60% · hit
W
Miedz Legnica2–1Warta Poznań30 Aug · home
Pick: Miedz Legnica 51% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Puszcza Niepołomice and Miedz Legnica meet in I Liga on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 17:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Puszcza Niepołomice win 28.8%, draw 21.5%, Miedz Legnica win 49.8%. The pick is Miedz Legnica win. Over 2.5 goals: 56.3%. Both teams to score: 54.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.