ScoreProb
Championship England Round 15 2026

QPR vs Lincoln

QPR Home · Elo 1,529
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Lincoln Away · Elo 1,646
Loftus Road, London Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: QPR win
QPR winPick
39.4%
Draw
22.2%
Lincoln win
38.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes53.2%
No46.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.560.1%
Under 2.539.9%

How much we know

QPR history78 matches
Lincoln history86 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (39.4%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why QPR are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Lincoln are rated 117 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,646 against 1,529. On rating alone Lincoln would be expected to take 66% of the points on offer.

  • Lincoln score more

    1.44 goals a game over 78 matches for QPR, against 1.78 over 86 for Lincoln.

  • Lincoln concede fewer

    QPR concede 1.49 a game, Lincoln 1.15.

  • QPR games more often go over 2.5 goals

    64% of QPR matches, against 55% for Lincoln. The model puts this match at 60% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 26 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
QPR
Lincoln
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1529.2
ELO
1645.8
78
ELO · Matches
86
1529.2
Current Team ELO
1645.8
1645.8
Current Opponent ELO
1529.2
-116.6
Current ELO Difference
116.6
0.34
Expected score
0.66
78
History Matches
86
0.02
Residual Mean
0.08
51.37
Overperformance
56.25
0.34
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.29
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.20
PPG
1.20
2.80
Goals for per game
1.60
0.80
Goals against per game
2.00
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
2.10
PPG
1.20
2.10
Goals for per game
1.20
1.00
Goals against per game
1.90
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
2.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
2.07
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.08
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.90
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.45
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.61
2.39
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.05
Overall performance9 signals
90
78
Matches
86
1.32
PPG
1.83
35.9%
Win rate
54.7%
24.4%
Draw rate
18.6%
39.7%
Loss rate
26.7%
75.6%
Over 1.5 rate
77.9%
64.1%
Over 2.5 rate
54.7%
38.5%
Over 3.5 rate
32.6%
2.02
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.73
Venue performance10 signals
100
38
Matches
46
1.37
PPG
1.63
36.8%
Win rate
47.8%
26.3%
Draw rate
19.6%
36.8%
Loss rate
32.6%
81.6%
Over 1.5 rate
73.9%
71.1%
Over 2.5 rate
52.2%
42.1%
Over 3.5 rate
30.4%
1.93
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.61
38
History Matches
46
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.44
Goals for per game
1.78
74.4%
Scoring rate
83.7%
64.1%
BTTS rate
51.2%
1.58
Goals for per game
1.57
78.9%
Scoring rate
84.8%
68.4%
BTTS rate
50.0%
1.50
Goals for per game
1.00
50.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
78
History Matches
86
1.44
Goals Mean
1.78
1.36
Goals Std
1.28
74.4%
Scored 1+ rate
83.7%
37.2%
Scored 2+ rate
53.5%
20.5%
Scored 3+ rate
26.7%
1.58
Venue Goals Mean
1.57
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.49
Goals against per game
1.15
78.2%
Conceding rate
65.1%
1.53
Goals against per game
1.26
78.9%
Conceding rate
63.0%
0.50
Goals against per game
2.50
50.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
78
History Matches
86
1.49
Conceded Mean
1.15
1.32
Conceded Std
1.13
41.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
33.7%
16.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
11.6%
1.53
Venue Conceded Mean
1.26
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
21.8%
Clean-sheet rate
34.9%
25.6%
Failed-to-score rate
16.3%
21.1%
Clean-sheet rate
37.0%
21.1%
Failed-to-score rate
15.2%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
21.8%
Clean-sheet rate
34.9%
25.6%
Failed-to-score rate
16.3%
21.1%
Clean-sheet rate
37.0%
21.1%
Failed-to-score rate
15.2%
21.8%
Clean-sheet rate
34.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
78
History Matches
86
0.98
Result entropy
0.91
2.02
Goal Difference Std
1.73
1.83
Stability score
9.36
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
78
Eligible Matches
86
24
Lead Matches
46
79.2%
Lead Win Rate
78.3%
0.83
Lead Points Retention
0.83
28
Trailing Matches
15
21.4%
Non-loss rate
20.0%
7.1%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
78
Halftime Coverage Matches
86
0.68
First Half Goals For Mean
0.85
0.76
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.48
0.76
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.93
0.73
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.67
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
73.84
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
11
Short Rest History Matches
6
1.36
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.17
52
Normal Rest History Matches
69
1.35
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.88
14
Long Rest History Matches
10
1.29
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.40
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
2.00
PPG
0.00
50.0%
Win rate
0.0%
50.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
1.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.50
2
Current Competition Matches
2
2.00
Current Competition PPG
0.00
1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.50
8
Competition Season Count
9
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.64
Portability PPG Std
0.56
1.61
Portability PPG Range
1.25
43.69
Portability Score
47.31
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
78
Clean History Matches
86
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-116.6
PPG-0.51
GF-0.34
GA0.34
PPG2.00
PPG-0.26
PPG1.00
PPG0.90
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-8
Clean-sheet rate-0.13
Failed-to-score rate9.4%
History Matches-8
Clean-sheet rate-0.16
Failed-to-score rate5.8%
History Matches-8
Goals Mean-0.34
Goals Std0.08
Scored 1+ rate-0.09
Scored 2+ rate-0.16
Scored 3+ rate-0.06
Venue Goals Mean0.01
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std0.99
History Matches-8
Conceded Mean0.34
Conceded Std0.19
Clean-sheet rate-0.13
Conceded 2+ rate7.3%
Conceded 3+ rate5.0%
Venue Conceded Mean0.27
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.45
History Matches-8
Result entropy0.08
Goal Difference Std0.29
Stability score-7.53
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.20
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.33
Eligible Matches-8
Lead Matches-22
Lead Win Rate0.9%
Lead Points Retention0.00
Trailing Matches13
Non-loss rate1.4%
Trailing Win Rate7.1%
Halftime Coverage Matches-8
First Half Goals For Mean-0.17
First Half Goals Against Mean0.28
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.17
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.06
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean2.50
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Portability PPG Std0.09
Portability PPG Range0.36
Portability Score-3.62
Rest days3.20
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches5
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.80
Normal Rest History Matches-17
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.54
Long Rest History Matches4
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.11
Current Team ELO-116.6
Current Opponent ELO116.6
Current ELO Difference-233.3
Expected score-0.32
History Matches-8
Residual Mean-0.06
Overperformance-4.88
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.63

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

QPR

D
QPR1–1Burnley3 Nov · home
Pick: QPR 58% · missed
L
Southampton4–1QPR31 Oct · away
Pick: Southampton 49% · hit
W
QPR5–0Swansea24 Oct · home
Pick: QPR 47% · hit
L
Birmingham3–0QPR17 Oct · away
Pick: Birmingham 46% · hit
W
QPR4–1Derby14 Oct · home
Pick: QPR 50% · hit

Lincoln

L
Watford1–0Lincoln3 Nov · away
Pick: Watford 42% · hit
L
Lincoln1–3Birmingham31 Oct · home
Pick: Birmingham 37% · hit
W
Lincoln4–1Burnley24 Oct · home
Pick: Lincoln 43% · hit
D
Millwall2–2Lincoln17 Oct · away
Pick: Millwall 47% · missed
L
Lincoln0–6West Ham14 Oct · home
Pick: Lincoln 46% · missed

About this match

QPR and Lincoln meet in Championship on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. The match is played at Loftus Road, London. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: QPR win 39.4%, draw 22.2%, Lincoln win 38.4%. The pick is QPR win. Over 2.5 goals: 60.1%. Both teams to score: 53.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.