Radcliffe vs Marine
Match result probability Model pick: Marine win
Radcliffe win
31.0%
Draw
24.9%
Marine winPick
44.1%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes56.5%
No43.5%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.555.8%
Under 2.544.2%
How much we know
Radcliffe history85 matches
Marine history87 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Marine
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 14:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre14 Nov · 15:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (44.1%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.
Why Marine are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Marine are rated 72 Elo points higher
Elo 1,525 against 1,453. On rating alone Marine would be expected to take 60% of the points on offer.
-
Scoring rates are level
1.45 goals a game over 85 matches for Radcliffe, against 1.32 over 87 for Marine.
-
Marine concede fewer
Radcliffe concede 1.71 a game, Marine 1.22.
-
Radcliffe games more often go over 2.5 goals
65% of Radcliffe matches, against 46% for Marine. The model puts this match at 56% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Marine@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1453.1
ELO
1525.3
85
ELO · Matches
87
1453.1
Current Team ELO
1525.3
1525.3
Current Opponent ELO
1453.1
-72.23
Current ELO Difference
72.23
0.40
Expected score
0.60
85
History Matches
87
-0.03
Residual Mean
0.02
47.74
Overperformance
51.32
0.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.12
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
1.20
0.80
Goals for per game
1.20
2.20
Goals against per game
1.00
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
1.90
1.00
Goals for per game
1.50
1.40
Goals against per game
0.70
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
1.18
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.28
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.70
1.11
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.64
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.56
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.66
Overall performance9 signals 90
85
Matches
87
1.24
PPG
1.54
35.3%
Win rate
44.8%
17.6%
Draw rate
19.5%
47.1%
Loss rate
35.6%
81.2%
Over 1.5 rate
70.1%
64.7%
Over 2.5 rate
46.0%
37.6%
Over 3.5 rate
26.4%
1.97
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.74
Venue performance10 signals 100
42
Matches
42
1.36
PPG
1.40
38.1%
Win rate
40.5%
21.4%
Draw rate
19.0%
40.5%
Loss rate
40.5%
81.0%
Over 1.5 rate
61.9%
69.0%
Over 2.5 rate
38.1%
47.6%
Over 3.5 rate
21.4%
1.82
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.68
42
History Matches
42
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.45
Goals for per game
1.32
75.3%
Scoring rate
73.6%
61.2%
BTTS rate
49.4%
1.57
Goals for per game
1.02
83.3%
Scoring rate
69.0%
71.4%
BTTS rate
42.9%
85
History Matches
87
1.45
Goals Mean
1.32
1.31
Goals Std
1.14
75.3%
Scored 1+ rate
73.6%
36.5%
Scored 2+ rate
39.1%
21.2%
Scored 3+ rate
12.6%
1.57
Venue Goals Mean
1.02
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.71
Goals against per game
1.22
82.4%
Conceding rate
69.0%
1.79
Goals against per game
1.21
83.3%
Conceding rate
64.3%
85
History Matches
87
1.71
Conceded Mean
1.22
1.28
Conceded Std
1.20
50.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
29.9%
25.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
13.8%
1.79
Venue Conceded Mean
1.21
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
17.6%
Clean-sheet rate
31.0%
24.7%
Failed-to-score rate
26.4%
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
35.7%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
31.0%
17.6%
Clean-sheet rate
31.0%
24.7%
Failed-to-score rate
26.4%
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
35.7%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
31.0%
17.6%
Clean-sheet rate
31.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
85
History Matches
87
0.94
Result entropy
0.95
1.97
Goal Difference Std
1.74
6.39
Stability score
4.75
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
84
Eligible Matches
87
19
Lead Matches
24
78.9%
Lead Win Rate
75.0%
0.86
Lead Points Retention
0.82
24
Trailing Matches
25
12.5%
Non-loss rate
32.0%
4.2%
Trailing Win Rate
8.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
84
Halftime Coverage Matches
87
0.61
First Half Goals For Mean
0.53
0.67
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.52
0.81
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.79
1.04
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.70
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
84.04
Rest days
84.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
7
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.29
72
Normal Rest History Matches
72
1.22
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.64
9
Long Rest History Matches
7
1.22
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.86
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
7
Competition Season Count
7
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.26
Portability PPG Std
0.77
0.75
Portability PPG Range
2.25
65.72
Portability Score
39.28
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
85
Clean History Matches
87
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-72.23
PPG-0.30
GF0.13
GA0.49
PPG-0.05
PPG-0.60
PPG-0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate-0.13
Failed-to-score rate-0.02
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate-0.19
Failed-to-score rate-0.14
History Matches-2
Goals Mean0.13
Goals Std0.17
Scored 1+ rate1.7%
Scored 2+ rate-0.03
Scored 3+ rate8.5%
Venue Goals Mean0.55
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.10
History Matches-2
Conceded Mean0.49
Conceded Std0.08
Clean-sheet rate-0.13
Conceded 2+ rate20.7%
Conceded 3+ rate12.1%
Venue Conceded Mean0.57
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.47
History Matches-2
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std0.24
Stability score1.64
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.04
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.10
Eligible Matches-3
Lead Matches-5
Lead Win Rate3.9%
Lead Points Retention0.04
Trailing Matches-1
Non-loss rate-0.20
Trailing Win Rate-0.04
Halftime Coverage Matches-3
First Half Goals For Mean0.08
First Half Goals Against Mean0.15
Second Half Goals For Mean0.02
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.33
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.51
Portability PPG Range-1.50
Portability Score26.44
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-4
Short Rest Points Per Match0.71
Normal Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.42
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.37
Current Team ELO-72.23
Current Opponent ELO72.23
Current ELO Difference-144.5
Expected score-0.20
History Matches-2
Residual Mean-0.04
Overperformance-3.58
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.08
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Radcliffe
D
Radcliffe3–3Merthyr Town31 Oct · home
Pick: Merthyr Town 49% · missed L
Radcliffe0–3Chorley27 Oct · home
Pick: Chorley 43% · hit W
Brackley Town0–1Radcliffe24 Oct · away
Pick: Brackley Town 49% · missed W
Southport0–2Radcliffe17 Oct · away
Pick: Southport 56% · missed L
Radcliffe0–1Darlington 188331 Aug · home
Pick: Darlington 1883 39% · hit Marine
L
Bradford7–0Marine7 Nov · away
Pick: Bradford 43% · hit L
Buxton4–2Marine31 Oct · away
Pick: Buxton 48% · hit L
Chester2–1Marine27 Oct · away
Pick: Chester 58% · hit D
Marine1–1Oxford City24 Oct · home
Pick: Oxford City 37% · missed W
Hartlepool0–2Marine17 Oct · away
Pick: Marine 39% · hit About this match
Radcliffe and Marine meet in FA Trophy on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Radcliffe win 31.0%, draw 24.9%, Marine win 44.1%. The pick is Marine win. Over 2.5 goals: 55.8%. Both teams to score: 56.5%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.