ScoreProb
UEFA Europa Conference League World Round 3 2026

Riga vs FK Jablonec

Riga Home · Elo 1,757
Thu 5 Nov
UTC
Not started
FK Jablonec Away · Elo 1,637
Skonto stadions, Riga Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 30 Oct, 08:38 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Riga win
Riga winPick
46.3%
Draw
27.8%
FK Jablonec win
25.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes52.5%
No47.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.560.6%
Under 2.539.4%

How much we know

Riga history94 matches
FK Jablonec history76 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 11 h ahead
    30 Oct · 08:38 UTC
  2. Re-published 13 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 19:23 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    5 Nov · 20:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (46.3%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Riga are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Riga are rated 119 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,757 against 1,637. On rating alone Riga would be expected to take 67% of the points on offer.

  • Riga score far more

    2.54 goals a game over 94 matches for Riga, against 1.63 over 76 for FK Jablonec.

  • Riga concede fewer

    Riga concede 0.94 a game, FK Jablonec 1.14.

  • Riga games more often go over 2.5 goals

    69% of Riga matches, against 49% for FK Jablonec. The model puts this match at 61% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Riga
FK Jablonec@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1756.6
ELO
1637.3
94
ELO · Matches
76
1756.6
Current Team ELO
1637.3
1637.3
Current Opponent ELO
1756.6
119.3
Current ELO Difference
-119.3
0.67
Expected score
0.33
94
History Matches
76
0.13
Residual Mean
0.10
60.52
Overperformance
57.91
0.11
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.27
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.20
PPG
3.00
2.60
Goals for per game
1.80
1.20
Goals against per game
0.20
60.0%
Win rate
100.0%
10
Matches
10
2.30
PPG
2.20
2.70
Goals for per game
1.50
1.30
Goals against per game
0.80
70.0%
Win rate
70.0%
2.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
1.19
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.67
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.80
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.17
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
1.50
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.27
Overall performance9 signals
90
94
Matches
76
2.36
PPG
1.88
73.4%
Win rate
56.6%
16.0%
Draw rate
18.4%
10.6%
Loss rate
25.0%
87.2%
Over 1.5 rate
73.7%
69.1%
Over 2.5 rate
48.7%
44.7%
Over 3.5 rate
28.9%
1.93
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.91
Venue performance10 signals
100
46
Matches
33
2.43
PPG
1.70
76.1%
Win rate
54.5%
15.2%
Draw rate
6.1%
8.7%
Loss rate
39.4%
89.1%
Over 1.5 rate
84.8%
69.6%
Over 2.5 rate
51.5%
43.5%
Over 3.5 rate
27.3%
1.98
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.10
46
History Matches
33
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.54
Goals for per game
1.63
94.7%
Scoring rate
80.3%
55.3%
BTTS rate
44.7%
2.70
Goals for per game
1.39
97.8%
Scoring rate
78.8%
47.8%
BTTS rate
42.4%
1.50
Goals for per game
2.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
75.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
94
History Matches
76
2.54
Goals Mean
1.63
1.61
Goals Std
1.36
94.7%
Scored 1+ rate
80.3%
71.3%
Scored 2+ rate
46.1%
52.1%
Scored 3+ rate
21.1%
2.70
Venue Goals Mean
1.39
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.94
Goals against per game
1.14
57.4%
Conceding rate
56.6%
0.78
Goals against per game
1.52
47.8%
Conceding rate
63.6%
1.25
Goals against per game
1.00
75.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
94
History Matches
76
0.94
Conceded Mean
1.14
0.99
Conceded Std
1.30
27.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
32.9%
7.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
17.1%
0.78
Venue Conceded Mean
1.52
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
42.6%
Clean-sheet rate
43.4%
5.3%
Failed-to-score rate
19.7%
52.2%
Clean-sheet rate
36.4%
2.2%
Failed-to-score rate
21.2%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
42.6%
Clean-sheet rate
43.4%
5.3%
Failed-to-score rate
19.7%
52.2%
Clean-sheet rate
36.4%
2.2%
Failed-to-score rate
21.2%
42.6%
Clean-sheet rate
43.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
94
History Matches
76
0.69
Result entropy
0.89
1.93
Goal Difference Std
1.91
30.99
Stability score
10.76
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
94
Eligible Matches
76
55
Lead Matches
38
90.9%
Lead Win Rate
92.1%
0.93
Lead Points Retention
0.95
11
Trailing Matches
17
45.5%
Non-loss rate
35.3%
9.1%
Trailing Win Rate
17.6%
Goal timing5 signals
50
94
Halftime Coverage Matches
76
1.12
First Half Goals For Mean
0.83
0.33
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.55
1.43
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.80
0.61
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.59
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
74.17
Rest days
84.15
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
9
Short Rest History Matches
9
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.44
69
Normal Rest History Matches
45
2.33
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.67
15
Long Rest History Matches
21
2.07
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.19
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
1.75
PPG
2.25
50.0%
Win rate
75.0%
25.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
25.0%
Loss rate
25.0%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
0.83
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.22
4
Current Competition Matches
4
1.75
Current Competition PPG
2.25
0.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.00
11
Competition Season Count
7
7
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.42
Portability PPG Std
0.42
1.33
Portability PPG Range
1.43
54.10
Portability Score
54.24
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
94
Clean History Matches
76
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO119.3
PPG0.48
GF0.91
GA-0.21
PPG-0.50
PPG0.74
PPG-0.80
PPG0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches18
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Failed-to-score rate-0.14
History Matches13
Clean-sheet rate15.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.19
History Matches18
Goals Mean0.91
Goals Std0.25
Scored 1+ rate14.4%
Scored 2+ rate25.2%
Scored 3+ rate31.1%
Venue Goals Mean1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.20
Recent 10 Goals Std0.52
History Matches18
Conceded Mean-0.21
Conceded Std-0.32
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Conceded 2+ rate-0.05
Conceded 3+ rate-0.10
Venue Conceded Mean-0.73
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.27
History Matches18
Result entropy-0.20
Goal Difference Std0.02
Stability score20.23
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.23
Eligible Matches18
Lead Matches17
Lead Win Rate-0.01
Lead Points Retention-0.01
Trailing Matches-6
Non-loss rate10.2%
Trailing Win Rate-0.09
Halftime Coverage Matches18
First Half Goals For Mean0.29
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.22
Second Half Goals For Mean0.62
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.01
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.75
Competition Season Count4
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.00
Portability PPG Range-0.10
Portability Score-0.15
Rest days-9.98
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match0.56
Normal Rest History Matches24
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.67
Long Rest History Matches-6
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.12
Current Team ELO119.3
Current Opponent ELO-119.3
Current ELO Difference238.5
Expected score0.33
History Matches18
Residual Mean0.03
Overperformance2.62
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.17

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Riga

D
Ogre United0–0Riga1 Nov · away
Pick: Riga 76% · missed
W
Grobiņa2–5Riga26 Oct · away
Pick: Riga 75% · hit
D
Pafos1–1Riga22 Oct · away
Pick: Riga 44% · missed
W
Riga2–1Super Nova18 Oct · home
Pick: Riga 72% · hit
D
Riga1–1Kairat Almaty15 Oct · home
Pick: Riga 52% · missed

FK Jablonec

L
FK Jablonec0–5Slavia Praha31 Oct · home
Pick: Slavia Praha 43% · hit
W
Hradec Králové1–2FK Jablonec25 Oct · away
Pick: FK Jablonec 36% · hit
D
FK Jablonec0–0Brighton22 Oct · home
Pick: FK Jablonec 51% · missed
L
FK Jablonec2–3Plzen18 Oct · home
Pick: FK Jablonec 48% · missed
L
SC Freiburg3–2FK Jablonec15 Oct · away
Pick: FK Jablonec 42% · missed

About this match

Riga and FK Jablonec meet in UEFA Europa Conference League on Thursday 5 November 2026, kickoff 20:00 UTC. The match is played at Skonto stadions, Riga. ScoreProb published its prediction on 30 Oct, 08:38 UTC: Riga win 46.3%, draw 27.8%, FK Jablonec win 25.9%. The pick is Riga win. Over 2.5 goals: 60.6%. Both teams to score: 52.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.