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Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 Spain Group 6 - 11 2026

Roda vs Hércules II

Roda Home · Elo 1,469
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Hércules II Away · Elo 1,487
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Roda win
Roda winPick
47.5%
Draw
27.8%
Hércules II win
24.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes48.1%
No51.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.544.9%
Under 2.555.1%

How much we know

Roda history52 matches
Hércules II history33 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 7 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 16:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (47.5%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.

Why Roda are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,469 against 1,487. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    0.96 goals a game over 52 matches for Roda, against 0.94 over 33 for Hércules II.

  • Defences are close

    Roda concede 1.21 a game, Hércules II 1.30.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    40% of Roda matches, against 39% for Hércules II. The model puts this match at 45% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 10 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Roda
Hércules II@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1469.5
ELO
1486.5
52
ELO · Matches
33
1469.5
Current Team ELO
1486.5
1486.5
Current Opponent ELO
1469.5
-17.04
Current ELO Difference
17.04
0.48
Expected score
0.52
52
History Matches
33
-0.03
Residual Mean
-0.02
47.92
Overperformance
48.55
-0.01
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.00
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
1.20
0.80
Goals for per game
0.80
1.00
Goals against per game
2.40
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
1.30
0.90
Goals for per game
1.00
0.90
Goals against per game
1.70
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
0.94
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.00
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.70
0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.35
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.18
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.95
Overall performance9 signals
90
52
Matches
33
1.23
PPG
1.24
32.7%
Win rate
30.3%
25.0%
Draw rate
33.3%
42.3%
Loss rate
36.4%
57.7%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
40.4%
Over 2.5 rate
39.4%
17.3%
Over 3.5 rate
21.2%
1.52
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.47
Venue performance10 signals
100
26
Matches
17
1.08
PPG
1.41
26.9%
Win rate
35.3%
26.9%
Draw rate
35.3%
46.2%
Loss rate
29.4%
53.8%
Over 1.5 rate
64.7%
46.2%
Over 2.5 rate
35.3%
15.4%
Over 3.5 rate
5.9%
1.51
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.25
26
History Matches
17
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
0.96
Goals for per game
0.94
57.7%
Scoring rate
69.7%
40.4%
BTTS rate
48.5%
0.88
Goals for per game
0.94
50.0%
Scoring rate
76.5%
38.5%
BTTS rate
52.9%
52
History Matches
33
0.96
Goals Mean
0.94
1.00
Goals Std
0.78
57.7%
Scored 1+ rate
69.7%
28.8%
Scored 2+ rate
21.2%
9.6%
Scored 3+ rate
3.0%
0.88
Venue Goals Mean
0.94
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.21
Goals against per game
1.30
63.5%
Conceding rate
72.7%
1.19
Goals against per game
1.12
61.5%
Conceding rate
76.5%
52
History Matches
33
1.21
Conceded Mean
1.30
1.31
Conceded Std
1.14
32.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
36.4%
13.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
15.2%
1.19
Venue Conceded Mean
1.12
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
36.5%
Clean-sheet rate
27.3%
42.3%
Failed-to-score rate
30.3%
38.5%
Clean-sheet rate
23.5%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
23.5%
36.5%
Clean-sheet rate
27.3%
42.3%
Failed-to-score rate
30.3%
38.5%
Clean-sheet rate
23.5%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
23.5%
36.5%
Clean-sheet rate
27.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
52
History Matches
33
0.98
Result entropy
1.00
1.52
Goal Difference Std
1.47
2.06
Stability score
0.25
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
52
Eligible Matches
33
8
Lead Matches
9
75.0%
Lead Win Rate
33.3%
0.83
Lead Points Retention
0.48
12
Trailing Matches
7
33.3%
Non-loss rate
14.3%
25.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
52
Halftime Coverage Matches
33
0.44
First Half Goals For Mean
0.39
0.56
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.42
0.52
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.55
0.65
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.88
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
189.0
Rest days
189.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
2
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.50
29
Normal Rest History Matches
14
1.24
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.14
22
Long Rest History Matches
16
1.27
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.31
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
4
Competition Season Count
1
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.16
Portability PPG Std
—
0.32
Portability PPG Range
—
75.86
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
52
Clean History Matches
33
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-17.04
PPG-0.01
GF0.02
GA-0.09
PPG-0.33
PPG0.00
PPG0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches19
Clean-sheet rate9.3%
Failed-to-score rate12.0%
History Matches9
Clean-sheet rate14.9%
Failed-to-score rate26.5%
History Matches19
Goals Mean0.02
Goals Std0.22
Scored 1+ rate-0.12
Scored 2+ rate7.6%
Scored 3+ rate6.6%
Venue Goals Mean-0.06
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.06
History Matches19
Conceded Mean-0.09
Conceded Std0.16
Clean-sheet rate9.3%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.04
Conceded 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Conceded Mean0.07
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.65
History Matches19
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std0.04
Stability score1.81
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.77
Eligible Matches19
Lead Matches-1
Lead Win Rate41.7%
Lead Points Retention0.35
Trailing Matches5
Non-loss rate19.0%
Trailing Win Rate25.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches19
First Half Goals For Mean0.05
First Half Goals Against Mean0.13
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.03
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.22
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count3
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest History Matches15
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.10
Long Rest History Matches6
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.04
Current Team ELO-17.04
Current Opponent ELO17.04
Current ELO Difference-34.08
Expected score-0.05
History Matches19
Residual Mean-0.01
Overperformance-0.63
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.01

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Roda

W
Roda1–0Eldense B31 Oct · home
Pick: Roda 58% · hit
L
Atzeneta2–1Roda24 Oct · away
Pick: Roda 39% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Hércules II

D
Acero0–0Hércules II1 Nov · away
Pick: Acero 37% · missed
L
Hércules II0–1Vall de Uxó24 Oct · home
Pick: Vall de Uxó 44% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Roda and Hércules II meet in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 16:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Roda win 47.5%, draw 27.8%, Hércules II win 24.7%. The pick is Roda win. Over 2.5 goals: 44.9%. Both teams to score: 48.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.