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Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 Spain Group 6 - 11 2026

Villarreal III vs Torrellano

Villarreal III Home · Elo 1,580
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Torrellano Away · Elo 1,467
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Villarreal III win
Villarreal III winPick
50.2%
Draw
25.8%
Torrellano win
24.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes51.6%
No48.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.551.9%
Under 2.548.1%

How much we know

Villarreal III history50 matches
Torrellano history48 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 7 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 16:30 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (50.2%). Picks in that band won 55.6% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 4,146 matches.

Why Villarreal III are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Villarreal III are rated 113 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,580 against 1,467. On rating alone Villarreal III would be expected to take 66% of the points on offer.

  • Villarreal III score more

    1.64 goals a game over 50 matches for Villarreal III, against 1.15 over 48 for Torrellano.

  • Defences are close

    Villarreal III concede 1.06 a game, Torrellano 1.17.

  • Villarreal III games more often go over 2.5 goals

    52% of Villarreal III matches, against 40% for Torrellano. The model puts this match at 52% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Villarreal III
Torrellano@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1580.3
ELO
1467.2
50
ELO · Matches
48
1580.3
Current Team ELO
1467.2
1467.2
Current Opponent ELO
1580.3
113.0
Current ELO Difference
-113.0
0.66
Expected score
0.34
50
History Matches
48
0.08
Residual Mean
-0.03
55.40
Overperformance
47.90
0.24
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.13
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.40
PPG
0.80
1.60
Goals for per game
0.80
0.80
Goals against per game
1.60
80.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
2.20
PPG
1.00
1.90
Goals for per game
0.80
0.70
Goals against per game
1.20
70.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.80
0.94
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.40
0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.98
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.72
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.80
Overall performance9 signals
90
50
Matches
48
1.66
PPG
1.25
46.0%
Win rate
33.3%
28.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
26.0%
Loss rate
41.7%
78.0%
Over 1.5 rate
68.8%
52.0%
Over 2.5 rate
39.6%
36.0%
Over 3.5 rate
18.8%
1.67
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.51
Venue performance10 signals
100
24
Matches
23
1.75
PPG
0.91
50.0%
Win rate
21.7%
25.0%
Draw rate
26.1%
25.0%
Loss rate
52.2%
87.5%
Over 1.5 rate
65.2%
54.2%
Over 2.5 rate
39.1%
37.5%
Over 3.5 rate
21.7%
1.84
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.25
24
History Matches
23
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.64
Goals for per game
1.15
80.0%
Scoring rate
62.5%
50.0%
BTTS rate
45.8%
1.88
Goals for per game
0.96
87.5%
Scoring rate
56.5%
50.0%
BTTS rate
52.2%
50
History Matches
48
1.64
Goals Mean
1.15
1.16
Goals Std
1.15
80.0%
Scored 1+ rate
62.5%
56.0%
Scored 2+ rate
33.3%
20.0%
Scored 3+ rate
14.6%
1.88
Venue Goals Mean
0.96
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.06
Goals against per game
1.17
60.0%
Conceding rate
72.9%
1.04
Goals against per game
1.39
62.5%
Conceding rate
87.0%
50
History Matches
48
1.06
Conceded Mean
1.17
1.10
Conceded Std
0.96
30.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
33.3%
14.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
8.3%
1.04
Venue Conceded Mean
1.39
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
27.1%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
37.5%
37.5%
Clean-sheet rate
13.0%
12.5%
Failed-to-score rate
43.5%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
27.1%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
37.5%
37.5%
Clean-sheet rate
13.0%
12.5%
Failed-to-score rate
43.5%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
27.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
50
History Matches
48
0.97
Result entropy
0.98
1.67
Goal Difference Std
1.51
3.16
Stability score
1.92
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
50
Eligible Matches
48
22
Lead Matches
12
81.8%
Lead Win Rate
83.3%
0.86
Lead Points Retention
0.83
9
Trailing Matches
12
33.3%
Non-loss rate
25.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
50
Halftime Coverage Matches
48
0.84
First Half Goals For Mean
0.52
0.46
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.58
0.80
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.63
0.60
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.58
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
174.0
Rest days
189.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
25
Normal Rest History Matches
25
1.60
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.20
24
Long Rest History Matches
22
1.67
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.32
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.23
Portability PPG Std
0.13
0.47
Portability PPG Range
0.27
68.18
Portability Score
78.95
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
50
Clean History Matches
48
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO113.0
PPG0.41
GF0.49
GA-0.11
PPG0.84
PPG1.60
PPG1.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate12.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.18
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate24.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.31
History Matches2
Goals Mean0.49
Goals Std0.01
Scored 1+ rate17.5%
Scored 2+ rate22.7%
Scored 3+ rate5.4%
Venue Goals Mean0.92
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.46
History Matches2
Conceded Mean-0.11
Conceded Std0.14
Clean-sheet rate12.9%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.03
Conceded 3+ rate5.7%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.35
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.03
History Matches2
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std0.17
Stability score1.25
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.09
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.08
Eligible Matches2
Lead Matches10
Lead Win Rate-0.02
Lead Points Retention0.03
Trailing Matches-3
Non-loss rate8.3%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches2
First Half Goals For Mean0.32
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.12
Second Half Goals For Mean0.18
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.02
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.10
Portability PPG Range0.20
Portability Score-10.77
Rest days-14.98
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.40
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.35
Current Team ELO113.0
Current Opponent ELO-113.0
Current ELO Difference226.1
Expected score0.31
History Matches2
Residual Mean0.11
Overperformance7.50
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.37

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Villarreal III

W
Utiel0–1Villarreal III25 Oct · away
Pick: Villarreal III 38% · hit
W
Villarreal III1–0Crevillente17 Oct · home
Pick: Villarreal III 52% · hit
W
Ontinyent 19311–2Villarreal III4 Oct · away
Pick: Villarreal III 42% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Torrellano

D
Levante II1–1Torrellano1 Nov · away
Pick: Levante II 56% · missed
W
Torrellano2–1Saguntino25 Oct · home
Pick: Saguntino 42% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Villarreal III and Torrellano meet in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 16:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Villarreal III win 50.2%, draw 25.8%, Torrellano win 24.1%. The pick is Villarreal III win. Over 2.5 goals: 51.9%. Both teams to score: 51.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.