Soneja vs Vall de Uxó
Match result probability Model pick: Draw
Soneja win
33.6%
DrawPick
37.8%
Vall de Uxó win
28.7%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes46.8%
No53.2%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.537.3%
Under 2.562.7%
How much we know
Soneja history48 matches
Vall de Uxó history49 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Draw
Over / under 2.5: ours Under
Both teams to score: ours No
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 7 h ahead8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 15:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre14 Nov · 16:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (37.8%). Picks in that band won 39.9% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,949 matches.
Why a draw is the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
The Elo ratings are level
Elo 1,505 against 1,509. On rating alone the teams are close to even.
-
Scoring rates are level
1.00 goals a game over 48 matches for Soneja, against 1.02 over 49 for Vall de Uxó.
-
Defences are close
Soneja concede 1.08 a game, Vall de Uxó 1.00.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
35% of Soneja matches, against 29% for Vall de Uxó. The model puts this match at 37% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 10 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Vall de Uxó@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1505.1
ELO
1508.9
48
ELO · Matches
49
1505.1
Current Team ELO
1508.9
1508.9
Current Opponent ELO
1505.1
-3.79
Current ELO Difference
3.79
0.49
Expected score
0.51
48
History Matches
49
0.01
Residual Mean
0.01
50.40
Overperformance
51.02
0.11
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.03
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
1.40
2.00
Goals for per game
0.60
1.40
Goals against per game
1.20
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.70
PPG
1.70
1.60
Goals for per game
0.80
1.30
Goals against per game
0.90
50.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.80
1.28
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.60
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.90
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.22
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.35
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.51
Overall performance9 signals 90
48
Matches
49
1.33
PPG
1.47
35.4%
Win rate
40.8%
27.1%
Draw rate
24.5%
37.5%
Loss rate
34.7%
60.4%
Over 1.5 rate
59.2%
35.4%
Over 2.5 rate
28.6%
12.5%
Over 3.5 rate
14.3%
1.44
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.39
Venue performance10 signals 100
24
Matches
23
1.29
PPG
1.09
33.3%
Win rate
30.4%
29.2%
Draw rate
17.4%
37.5%
Loss rate
52.2%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
56.5%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
30.4%
12.5%
Over 3.5 rate
13.0%
1.21
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.34
24
History Matches
23
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.00
Goals for per game
1.02
64.6%
Scoring rate
69.4%
41.7%
BTTS rate
40.8%
1.08
Goals for per game
0.87
62.5%
Scoring rate
60.9%
41.7%
BTTS rate
39.1%
48
History Matches
49
1.00
Goals Mean
1.02
1.00
Goals Std
0.84
64.6%
Scored 1+ rate
69.4%
27.1%
Scored 2+ rate
28.6%
4.2%
Scored 3+ rate
4.1%
1.08
Venue Goals Mean
0.87
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.08
Goals against per game
1.00
68.8%
Conceding rate
67.3%
0.92
Goals against per game
1.22
66.7%
Conceding rate
78.3%
48
History Matches
49
1.08
Conceded Mean
1.00
1.00
Conceded Std
0.99
27.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
20.4%
10.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
8.2%
0.92
Venue Conceded Mean
1.22
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
31.3%
Clean-sheet rate
32.7%
35.4%
Failed-to-score rate
30.6%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
21.7%
37.5%
Failed-to-score rate
39.1%
31.3%
Clean-sheet rate
32.7%
35.4%
Failed-to-score rate
30.6%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
21.7%
37.5%
Failed-to-score rate
39.1%
31.3%
Clean-sheet rate
32.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
48
History Matches
49
0.99
Result entropy
0.98
1.44
Goal Difference Std
1.39
0.86
Stability score
1.92
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
48
Eligible Matches
49
14
Lead Matches
16
71.4%
Lead Win Rate
62.5%
0.79
Lead Points Retention
0.69
11
Trailing Matches
8
18.2%
Non-loss rate
37.5%
9.1%
Trailing Win Rate
12.5%
Goal timing5 signals 50
48
Halftime Coverage Matches
49
0.48
First Half Goals For Mean
0.41
0.42
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.27
0.52
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.61
0.67
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.73
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
189.1
Rest days
189.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
27
Normal Rest History Matches
28
1.52
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.50
20
Long Rest History Matches
20
1.10
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.50
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.05
Portability PPG Std
0.02
0.10
Portability PPG Range
0.05
91.16
Portability Score
95.65
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
48
Clean History Matches
49
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-3.79
PPG-0.14
GF-0.02
GA0.08
PPG0.20
PPG0.40
PPG0.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Failed-to-score rate4.8%
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate11.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.02
History Matches-1
Goals Mean-0.02
Goals Std0.16
Scored 1+ rate-0.05
Scored 2+ rate-0.01
Scored 3+ rate0.1%
Venue Goals Mean0.21
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std0.68
History Matches-1
Conceded Mean0.08
Conceded Std0.01
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Conceded 2+ rate6.7%
Conceded 3+ rate2.3%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.22
History Matches-1
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std0.05
Stability score-1.06
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.17
Eligible Matches-1
Lead Matches-2
Lead Win Rate8.9%
Lead Points Retention0.10
Trailing Matches3
Non-loss rate-0.19
Trailing Win Rate-0.03
Halftime Coverage Matches-1
First Half Goals For Mean0.07
First Half Goals Against Mean0.15
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.09
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.07
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.03
Portability PPG Range0.05
Portability Score-4.49
Rest days0.08
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.02
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.40
Current Team ELO-3.79
Current Opponent ELO3.79
Current ELO Difference-7.59
Expected score-0.01
History Matches-1
Residual Mean-0.01
Overperformance-0.62
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.08
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Soneja
L
Soneja0–2Torrent1 Nov · home
Pick: Torrent 36% · hit W
Eldense B2–3Soneja24 Oct · away
Pick: Eldense B 38% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
Vall de Uxó
L
Buñol2–0Vall de Uxó31 Oct · away
Pick: Draw 38% · missed W
Hércules II0–1Vall de Uxó24 Oct · away
Pick: Vall de Uxó 44% · hit D
Vall de Uxó1–1Atzeneta4 Oct · home
Pick: Vall de Uxó 43% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Soneja and Vall de Uxó meet in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 16:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Soneja win 33.6%, draw 37.8%, Vall de Uxó win 28.7%. The pick is a draw. Over 2.5 goals: 37.3%. Both teams to score: 46.8%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.