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Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 Spain Group 6 - 11 2026

Saguntino vs Torrent

Saguntino Home · Elo 1,564
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Torrent Away · Elo 1,475
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Saguntino win
Saguntino winPick
39.3%
Draw
28.4%
Torrent win
32.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes50.2%
No49.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.550.7%
Under 2.549.3%

How much we know

Saguntino history52 matches
Torrent history54 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 7 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 16:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (39.3%). Picks in that band won 39.9% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,949 matches.

Why Saguntino are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Saguntino are rated 89 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,564 against 1,475. On rating alone Saguntino would be expected to take 63% of the points on offer.

  • Saguntino score more

    1.35 goals a game over 52 matches for Saguntino, against 1.20 over 54 for Torrent.

  • Saguntino concede fewer

    Saguntino concede 1.02 a game, Torrent 1.33.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    46% of Saguntino matches, against 48% for Torrent. The model puts this match at 51% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 15 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Saguntino
Torrent@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1564.0
ELO
1475.0
52
ELO · Matches
54
1564.0
Current Team ELO
1475.0
1475.0
Current Opponent ELO
1564.0
88.95
Current ELO Difference
-88.95
0.63
Expected score
0.37
52
History Matches
54
0.06
Residual Mean
-0.02
54.14
Overperformance
48.88
0.23
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.03
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
0.80
2.00
Goals for per game
1.40
1.00
Goals against per game
1.60
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
2.20
PPG
1.30
1.70
Goals for per game
1.20
0.80
Goals against per game
1.40
70.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.87
0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
0.98
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.11
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.64
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.40
Overall performance9 signals
90
52
Matches
54
1.56
PPG
1.26
42.3%
Win rate
33.3%
28.8%
Draw rate
25.9%
28.8%
Loss rate
40.7%
67.3%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
46.2%
Over 2.5 rate
48.1%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
27.8%
1.44
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.37
Venue performance10 signals
100
25
Matches
25
1.88
PPG
0.96
52.0%
Win rate
28.0%
32.0%
Draw rate
12.0%
16.0%
Loss rate
60.0%
56.0%
Over 1.5 rate
72.0%
36.0%
Over 2.5 rate
56.0%
20.0%
Over 3.5 rate
32.0%
1.28
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.53
25
History Matches
25
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.35
Goals for per game
1.20
75.0%
Scoring rate
77.8%
51.9%
BTTS rate
61.1%
1.40
Goals for per game
1.20
72.0%
Scoring rate
76.0%
40.0%
BTTS rate
64.0%
52
History Matches
54
1.35
Goals Mean
1.20
1.16
Goals Std
0.89
75.0%
Scored 1+ rate
77.8%
36.5%
Scored 2+ rate
33.3%
15.4%
Scored 3+ rate
9.3%
1.40
Venue Goals Mean
1.20
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.02
Goals against per game
1.33
63.5%
Conceding rate
75.9%
0.68
Goals against per game
1.72
52.0%
Conceding rate
84.0%
52
History Matches
54
1.02
Conceded Mean
1.33
0.95
Conceded Std
1.20
30.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
33.3%
7.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
13.0%
0.68
Venue Conceded Mean
1.72
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
36.5%
Clean-sheet rate
24.1%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
22.2%
48.0%
Clean-sheet rate
16.0%
28.0%
Failed-to-score rate
24.0%
36.5%
Clean-sheet rate
24.1%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
22.2%
48.0%
Clean-sheet rate
16.0%
28.0%
Failed-to-score rate
24.0%
36.5%
Clean-sheet rate
24.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
52
History Matches
54
0.98
Result entropy
0.98
1.44
Goal Difference Std
1.37
1.59
Stability score
1.51
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
52
Eligible Matches
54
13
Lead Matches
13
76.9%
Lead Win Rate
69.2%
0.85
Lead Points Retention
0.74
15
Trailing Matches
14
26.7%
Non-loss rate
21.4%
20.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
52
Halftime Coverage Matches
54
0.50
First Half Goals For Mean
0.50
0.52
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.54
0.85
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.70
0.50
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.80
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
91.94
Rest days
195.3
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
0
1.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
24
Normal Rest History Matches
41
1.67
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.34
25
Long Rest History Matches
12
1.48
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.83
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
4
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.47
Portability PPG Std
0.50
0.95
Portability PPG Range
1.12
51.33
Portability Score
50.00
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
52
Clean History Matches
54
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO88.95
PPG0.30
GF0.14
GA-0.31
PPG0.92
PPG1.00
PPG0.90
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate12.5%
Failed-to-score rate2.8%
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate32.0%
Failed-to-score rate4.0%
History Matches-2
Goals Mean0.14
Goals Std0.27
Scored 1+ rate-0.03
Scored 2+ rate3.2%
Scored 3+ rate6.1%
Venue Goals Mean0.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std0.13
History Matches-2
Conceded Mean-0.31
Conceded Std-0.25
Clean-sheet rate12.5%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.03
Conceded 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Conceded Mean-1.04
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.13
History Matches-2
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std0.06
Stability score0.08
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.24
Eligible Matches-2
Lead Matches0
Lead Win Rate7.7%
Lead Points Retention0.10
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate5.2%
Trailing Win Rate20.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-2
First Half Goals For Mean0.00
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.02
Second Half Goals For Mean0.14
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.30
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.03
Portability PPG Range-0.17
Portability Score1.33
Rest days-103.3
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest History Matches-17
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.33
Long Rest History Matches13
Long Rest Points Per Match0.65
Current Team ELO88.95
Current Opponent ELO-88.95
Current ELO Difference177.9
Expected score0.25
History Matches-2
Residual Mean0.07
Overperformance5.26
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.20

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Saguntino

L
Eldense B3–0Saguntino7 Nov · away
Pick: Saguntino 43% · missed
W
Saguntino3–1Atzeneta31 Oct · home
Pick: Saguntino 54% · hit
L
Torrellano2–1Saguntino25 Oct · away
Pick: Saguntino 42% · missed
W
Saguntino3–2Utiel4 Oct · home
Pick: Saguntino 44% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Torrent

W
Soneja0–2Torrent1 Nov · away
Pick: Torrent 36% · hit
L
Torrent1–2Acero25 Oct · home
Pick: Torrent 65% · missed
W
Buñol0–1Torrent4 Oct · away
Pick: Torrent 43% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Saguntino and Torrent meet in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 16:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Saguntino win 39.3%, draw 28.4%, Torrent win 32.3%. The pick is Saguntino win. Over 2.5 goals: 50.7%. Both teams to score: 50.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.