ScoreProb
Challenger Pro League Belgium Round 8 2026

RSC Anderlecht II vs K. Lierse S.K.

RSC Anderlecht II Home · Elo 1,418
Full time
1–0
Half time 1–0
Wed 4 Nov · 19:00 UTC
K. Lierse S.K. Away · Elo 1,485
Lotto Park, Brussels Referee: to be announced Pick published 2 Nov, 07:01 UTC, before kickoff
What we said before kickoff Result: RSC Anderlecht II win
RSC Anderlecht II win Result
32.0%
Draw
22.9%
K. Lierse S.K. winPick
45.1%

How our picks did

Based on the final score. It joins the public record at the next nightly settlement.

None of 3 hit
Match result
Our pickK. Lierse S.K. win · 45.1%
What happenedRSC Anderlecht II win · we gave it 32.0%
Missed
Over 2.5 goals
Our pickOver · 59.0%
What happenedUnder · 1 goal
Missed
Both teams to score
Our pickYes · 57.2%
What happenedNo · 1–0
Missed

How surprising was it?

Result: RSC Anderlecht II win. In our numbers it ranked second of the three.

32%
chance we gave it
0%50%100%
1 in 3.1
on average
A pick at 45% is expected to miss about 5 times in 10. One match does not judge a model. The record across every settled match does.
See the full record

Timeline

Newest at the bottom

GoalKylian Liema Olinga · assist Ludovick Wola-Wetshay
20'
Yellow cardLudovick Wola-Wetshay
26'
45'
SubstitutionBryan Smeets off · Kyan Himpe on
SubstitutionNoa Ojea off · Terry Chinecherem Van De Ven on
60'
SubstitutionJoshua-Williame Nga Kana off · Noah Kalonji on
61'
67'
SubstitutionElton Yeboah off · Wout Debuyser on
VARPenalty cancelled · Alexander De Ridder
68'
72'
SubstitutionWout Debuyser off · Dylan Dassy on
77'
VARPenalty cancelled · Alexandre Stanic
81'
SubstitutionPierre Dwomoh off · Daan De Peuter on
81'
SubstitutionMarko Mitrovic off · Christian Kouam on
85'
Yellow cardDylan Dassy
Yellow cardNunzio Engwanda
85'
SubstitutionEnzo sternal off · Gassimou Sylla on
87'

Lineups

RSC Anderlecht II 4-4-2 · K. Lierse S.K. 4-4-2

Substitutes · RSC Anderlecht II · Coach K. Mokeddem

  • 76Terry Van De Ven
  • 57Gassimou Sylla
  • 51O. Sarr
  • 40Adjani Mujangi Bia
  • 68N. Kalonji Kafumpata
  • 72B. Akomolede
  • 44M. Abdellaoui
  • 63T. Vanhoutte

Substitutes · K. Lierse S.K. · Coach Arno Van den Abbeel

  • 14W. De Buyser
  • 20D. Dassy
  • 99L. Bončina
  • 27D. De Peuter
  • 8Christian Nsonga Fopossi Kouam
  • 19Kyan Himpe
  • 32W. Van Clemen
  • 3T. Elsuwege
  • 24J. Willems

Match stats

RSC Anderlecht II left, K. Lierse S.K. right

Possession 56% 44%
Expected goals (xG) 2.04 0.83
Shots 14 12
Shots on target 4 8
Corners 6 2
Fouls 6 15
Yellow cards 2 1
Red cards 0 0
Offsides 1 2
Saves 8 3

Both teams to score

Yes57.2%
No42.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.559.0%
Under 2.541.0%

How much we know

RSC Anderlecht II history47 matches
K. Lierse S.K. history59 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Life of this match

Every step is time-stamped, from first prediction to settled result.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 2 d 11 h ahead
    2 Nov · 07:01 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 18:58 UTC
  3. Lineups publishedThis prediction does not use lineups.
  4. Kickoff
    4 Nov · 19:00 UTC
  5. Full time: 1–0None of our three picks hit
  6. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

Share this result

A picture made for this match: teams, our probabilities and the verified stamp. Works in chats and on social.

The card keeps the pre-match numbers. A miss is shared as plainly as a hit.
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How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (45.1%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why K. Lierse S.K. are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • K. Lierse S.K. are rated 67 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,485 against 1,418. On rating alone K. Lierse S.K. would be expected to take 60% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.47 goals a game over 47 matches for RSC Anderlecht II, against 1.37 over 59 for K. Lierse S.K..

  • K. Lierse S.K. concede fewer

    RSC Anderlecht II concede 1.81 a game, K. Lierse S.K. 1.20.

  • RSC Anderlecht II games more often go over 2.5 goals

    64% of RSC Anderlecht II matches, against 46% for K. Lierse S.K.. The model puts this match at 59% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
RSC Anderlecht II
K. Lierse S.K.@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1417.7
ELO
1484.9
47
ELO · Matches
59
1417.7
Current Team ELO
1484.9
1484.9
Current Opponent ELO
1417.7
-67.15
Current ELO Difference
67.15
0.40
Expected score
0.60
47
History Matches
59
-0.08
Residual Mean
-0.03
44.14
Overperformance
48.04
-0.12
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.05
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
2.00
1.80
Goals for per game
2.20
1.00
Goals against per game
1.00
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
0.70
PPG
1.40
1.30
Goals for per game
1.70
1.90
Goals against per game
1.00
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.70
1.49
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.85
1.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
1.76
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.89
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
2.50
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.53
Overall performance9 signals
90
47
Matches
59
0.89
PPG
1.27
21.3%
Win rate
35.6%
25.5%
Draw rate
20.3%
53.2%
Loss rate
44.1%
80.9%
Over 1.5 rate
64.4%
63.8%
Over 2.5 rate
45.8%
48.9%
Over 3.5 rate
22.0%
2.02
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.13
Venue performance10 signals
100
24
Matches
34
0.96
PPG
1.32
20.8%
Win rate
38.2%
33.3%
Draw rate
17.6%
45.8%
Loss rate
44.1%
83.3%
Over 1.5 rate
64.7%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
44.1%
54.2%
Over 3.5 rate
23.5%
2.28
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.50
24
History Matches
34
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.47
Goals for per game
1.37
72.3%
Scoring rate
69.5%
57.4%
BTTS rate
47.5%
1.50
Goals for per game
1.59
66.7%
Scoring rate
73.5%
54.2%
BTTS rate
44.1%
0.50
Goals for per game
1.00
50.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
47
History Matches
59
1.47
Goals Mean
1.37
1.32
Goals Std
1.76
72.3%
Scored 1+ rate
69.5%
48.9%
Scored 2+ rate
28.8%
10.6%
Scored 3+ rate
16.9%
1.50
Venue Goals Mean
1.59
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.81
Goals against per game
1.20
78.7%
Conceding rate
69.5%
1.75
Goals against per game
1.09
79.2%
Conceding rate
67.6%
1.50
Goals against per game
2.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
47
History Matches
59
1.81
Conceded Mean
1.20
1.38
Conceded Std
1.12
57.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
35.6%
27.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
8.5%
1.75
Venue Conceded Mean
1.09
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
21.3%
Clean-sheet rate
30.5%
27.7%
Failed-to-score rate
30.5%
20.8%
Clean-sheet rate
32.4%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
26.5%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
21.3%
Clean-sheet rate
30.5%
27.7%
Failed-to-score rate
30.5%
20.8%
Clean-sheet rate
32.4%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
26.5%
21.3%
Clean-sheet rate
30.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
47
History Matches
59
0.92
Result entropy
0.96
2.02
Goal Difference Std
2.13
7.74
Stability score
4.18
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
47
Eligible Matches
57
14
Lead Matches
22
64.3%
Lead Win Rate
68.2%
0.71
Lead Points Retention
0.73
20
Trailing Matches
12
20.0%
Non-loss rate
8.3%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
47
Halftime Coverage Matches
57
0.64
First Half Goals For Mean
0.75
0.81
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.44
0.83
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.61
1.00
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.79
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
75.04
Rest days
74.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
6
Short Rest History Matches
9
0.17
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.11
21
Normal Rest History Matches
28
1.05
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.39
19
Long Rest History Matches
21
0.84
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.10
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
0.00
PPG
1.50
0.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
0.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.00
2
Current Competition Matches
2
0.00
Current Competition PPG
1.50
-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.00
4
Competition Season Count
6
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.15
Portability PPG Std
0.15
0.30
Portability PPG Range
0.36
76.80
Portability Score
77.36
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
47
Clean History Matches
59
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-67.15
PPG-0.38
GF0.10
GA0.61
PPG-1.50
PPG-0.37
PPG-0.80
PPG-0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-12
Clean-sheet rate-0.09
Failed-to-score rate-0.03
History Matches-10
Clean-sheet rate-0.12
Failed-to-score rate6.9%
History Matches-12
Goals Mean0.10
Goals Std-0.45
Scored 1+ rate2.8%
Scored 2+ rate20.1%
Scored 3+ rate-0.06
Venue Goals Mean-0.09
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.36
History Matches-12
Conceded Mean0.61
Conceded Std0.26
Clean-sheet rate-0.09
Conceded 2+ rate21.9%
Conceded 3+ rate19.2%
Venue Conceded Mean0.66
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.86
History Matches-12
Result entropy-0.04
Goal Difference Std-0.11
Stability score3.56
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.23
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.03
Eligible Matches-10
Lead Matches-8
Lead Win Rate-0.04
Lead Points Retention-0.01
Trailing Matches8
Non-loss rate11.7%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-10
First Half Goals For Mean-0.12
First Half Goals Against Mean0.37
Second Half Goals For Mean0.22
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.21
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.00
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Portability PPG Std0.00
Portability PPG Range-0.06
Portability Score-0.56
Rest days1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-3
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.94
Normal Rest History Matches-7
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.35
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.25
Current Team ELO-67.15
Current Opponent ELO67.15
Current ELO Difference-134.3
Expected score-0.19
History Matches-12
Residual Mean-0.06
Overperformance-3.90
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.17

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

RSC Anderlecht II

L
RSC Anderlecht II0–1Beerschot VA29 Aug · home
Pick: Beerschot VA 62% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

K. Lierse S.K.

L
KAA Gent II2–0K. Lierse S.K.30 Oct · away
Pick: K. Lierse S.K. 48% · missed
D
Seraing United1–1K. Lierse S.K.30 Aug · away
Pick: K. Lierse S.K. 45% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Match report

RSC Anderlecht II and K. Lierse S.K. finished 1–0 in Challenger Pro League on Wednesday 4 November 2026. It was 1–0 at half time. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 07:01 UTC, before kickoff: RSC Anderlecht II win 32.0%, draw 22.9%, K. Lierse S.K. win 45.1%. None of the three picks hit.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.