Saarbrücken U19 vs Bayer Leverkusen U19
What we said before kickoff Result: Bayer Leverkusen U19 win
Saarbrücken U19 win
6.8%
Draw
9.6%
Bayer Leverkusen U19 winPick Result
83.5%
How our picks did
Settled automatically from the final score. Every miss stays on the record.
Match result
Our pickBayer Leverkusen U19 win · 83.5%
What happenedBayer Leverkusen U19 win · we gave it 83.5%
Hit Over 2.5 goals
Our pickOver · 83.3%
What happenedOver · 5 goals
Hit Both teams to score
Our pickYes · 55.5%
What happenedNo · 0–5
Missed How surprising was it?
Result: Bayer Leverkusen U19 win. In our numbers it ranked first of the three.
84%
chance we gave it0%50%100%
1 in 1.2
on average A pick at 84% is expected to miss about 2 times in 10. One match does not judge a model. The record across every settled match does.
See the full record
Both teams to score
Yes55.5%
No44.5%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.583.3%
Under 2.516.7%
How much we know
Saarbrücken U19 history41 matches
Bayer Leverkusen U19 history51 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your calls on this match
Made on this device before kickoff, compared with the result.
Life of this match
Every step is time-stamped, from first prediction to settled result.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 2 h ahead1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
- Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
- Kickoff7 Nov · 11:00 UTC
- Full time: 0–5Two of our three picks hit
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically from the final score.8 Nov · 03:17 UTC
Share this result
A picture made for this match: teams, our probabilities and the verified stamp. Works in chats and on social.
The card keeps the pre-match numbers. A miss is shared as plainly as a hit.
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 80%+ band (83.5%). Picks in that band won 83.1% of the time, and the model said 84.5% on average, over 177 matches. This band has few matches, so treat the figures with care.
Why Bayer Leverkusen U19 are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Bayer Leverkusen U19 are rated 196 Elo points higher
Elo 1,610 against 1,413. On rating alone Bayer Leverkusen U19 would be expected to take 76% of the points on offer.
-
Bayer Leverkusen U19 score far more
1.37 goals a game over 41 matches for Saarbrücken U19, against 2.53 over 51 for Bayer Leverkusen U19.
-
Bayer Leverkusen U19 concede fewer
Saarbrücken U19 concede 2.85 a game, Bayer Leverkusen U19 1.47.
-
Saarbrücken U19 games more often go over 2.5 goals
80% of Saarbrücken U19 matches, against 71% for Bayer Leverkusen U19. The model puts this match at 83% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Bayer Leverkusen U19@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1413.2
ELO
1609.6
41
ELO · Matches
51
1413.2
Current Team ELO
1609.6
1609.6
Current Opponent ELO
1413.2
-196.4
Current ELO Difference
196.4
0.24
Expected score
0.76
41
History Matches
51
-0.10
Residual Mean
0.11
42.98
Overperformance
57.87
-0.01
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.17
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
0.20
PPG
3.00
1.00
Goals for per game
3.60
5.20
Goals against per game
0.20
0.0%
Win rate
100.0%
10
Matches
10
1.10
PPG
2.20
1.70
Goals for per game
2.80
3.70
Goals against per game
1.10
30.0%
Win rate
70.0%
1.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.80
1.73
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.54
3.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
2.33
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.14
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
3.49
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.24
Overall performance9 signals 90
41
Matches
51
0.85
PPG
1.88
22.0%
Win rate
54.9%
19.5%
Draw rate
23.5%
58.5%
Loss rate
21.6%
90.2%
Over 1.5 rate
92.2%
80.5%
Over 2.5 rate
70.6%
63.4%
Over 3.5 rate
56.9%
2.79
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.81
Venue performance10 signals 100
20
Matches
24
0.90
PPG
1.67
25.0%
Win rate
45.8%
15.0%
Draw rate
29.2%
60.0%
Loss rate
25.0%
90.0%
Over 1.5 rate
95.8%
80.0%
Over 2.5 rate
70.8%
65.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
2.96
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.72
20
History Matches
24
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
1.37
Goals for per game
2.53
63.4%
Scoring rate
88.2%
53.7%
BTTS rate
64.7%
1.60
Goals for per game
2.13
65.0%
Scoring rate
87.5%
55.0%
BTTS rate
66.7%
0.00
Goals for per game
3.50
0.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
25.0%
41
History Matches
51
1.37
Goals Mean
2.53
1.36
Goals Std
2.08
63.4%
Scored 1+ rate
88.2%
43.9%
Scored 2+ rate
64.7%
17.1%
Scored 3+ rate
43.1%
1.60
Venue Goals Mean
2.13
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
2.85
Goals against per game
1.47
85.4%
Conceding rate
72.5%
2.80
Goals against per game
1.54
90.0%
Conceding rate
75.0%
6.33
Goals against per game
0.25
100.0%
Conceding rate
25.0%
41
History Matches
51
2.85
Conceded Mean
1.47
2.11
Conceded Std
1.49
73.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
35.3%
53.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
19.6%
2.80
Venue Conceded Mean
1.54
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
14.6%
Clean-sheet rate
27.5%
36.6%
Failed-to-score rate
11.8%
10.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
35.0%
Failed-to-score rate
12.5%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
75.0%
100.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
14.6%
Clean-sheet rate
27.5%
36.6%
Failed-to-score rate
11.8%
10.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
35.0%
Failed-to-score rate
12.5%
14.6%
Clean-sheet rate
27.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
41
History Matches
51
0.88
Result entropy
0.91
2.79
Goal Difference Std
2.81
12.15
Stability score
8.93
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
40
Eligible Matches
50
9
Lead Matches
20
77.8%
Lead Win Rate
85.0%
0.85
Lead Points Retention
0.88
20
Trailing Matches
13
10.0%
Non-loss rate
46.2%
5.0%
Trailing Win Rate
23.1%
Goal timing5 signals 50
40
Halftime Coverage Matches
50
0.78
First Half Goals For Mean
1.06
1.43
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.76
0.60
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.42
1.48
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.74
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
76.04
Rest days
76.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
3
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.33
20
Normal Rest History Matches
28
1.05
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.25
20
Long Rest History Matches
19
0.55
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.47
Competition & season17 signals 170
3
Matches
4
0.00
PPG
3.00
0.0%
Win rate
100.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
75.0%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
2.05
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.64
3
Current Competition Matches
4
0.00
Current Competition PPG
3.00
-6.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
3.25
3
Competition Season Count
6
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.43
Portability PPG Std
0.59
1.04
Portability PPG Range
1.57
53.48
Portability Score
46.04
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
41
Clean History Matches
51
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-196.4
PPG-1.03
GF-1.16
GA1.38
PPG-3.00
PPG-0.77
PPG-2.80
PPG-1.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-10
Clean-sheet rate-0.13
Failed-to-score rate24.8%
History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate-0.15
Failed-to-score rate22.5%
History Matches-10
Goals Mean-1.16
Goals Std-0.72
Scored 1+ rate-0.25
Scored 2+ rate-0.21
Scored 3+ rate-0.26
Venue Goals Mean-0.53
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.20
History Matches-10
Conceded Mean1.38
Conceded Std0.63
Clean-sheet rate-0.13
Conceded 2+ rate37.9%
Conceded 3+ rate34.1%
Venue Conceded Mean1.26
Recent 10 Conceded Mean2.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std1.19
History Matches-10
Result entropy-0.03
Goal Difference Std-0.02
Stability score3.21
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.21
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.25
Eligible Matches-10
Lead Matches-11
Lead Win Rate-0.07
Lead Points Retention-0.03
Trailing Matches7
Non-loss rate-0.36
Trailing Win Rate-0.18
Halftime Coverage Matches-10
First Half Goals For Mean-0.29
First Half Goals Against Mean0.67
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.82
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.74
Current Competition Matches-1
Current Competition PPG-3.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-9.58
Competition Season Count-3
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.15
Portability PPG Range-0.53
Portability Score7.44
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-3
Normal Rest History Matches-8
Normal Rest Points Per Match-1.20
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.92
Current Team ELO-196.4
Current Opponent ELO196.4
Current ELO Difference-392.9
Expected score-0.51
History Matches-10
Residual Mean-0.21
Overperformance-14.90
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.17
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Saarbrücken U19
L
Saarbrücken U191–3Borussia M'bach U1917 Oct · home
Pick: Borussia M'bach U19 83% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
Bayer Leverkusen U19
W
Bayer Leverkusen U192–1Borussia M'bach U1930 Oct · home
Pick: Bayer Leverkusen U19 66% · hit W
Elversberg U190–2Bayer Leverkusen U1924 Oct · away
Pick: Bayer Leverkusen U19 80% · hit W
Bochum U193–4Bayer Leverkusen U1918 Oct · away
Pick: Bayer Leverkusen U19 50% · hit W
Bayer Leverkusen U196–0Carl Zeiss Jena U1929 Aug · home
Pick: Bayer Leverkusen U19 45% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
Match report
Saarbrücken U19 and Bayer Leverkusen U19 finished 0–5 in U19 Bundesliga on Saturday 7 November 2026. It was 0–2 at half time. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC, before kickoff: Saarbrücken U19 win 6.8%, draw 9.6%, Bayer Leverkusen U19 win 83.5%. Two of the three picks hit.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.