ScoreProb
Reserve League Argentina Round 16 2026

San Martín San Juan Res. vs Central Córdoba SdE Res.

San Martín San Juan Res. Home · Elo 1,412
Full time
1–0
Half time 0–0
Wed 4 Nov · 18:00 UTC
Central Córdoba SdE Res. Away · Elo 1,420
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Pick published 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC, before kickoff
What we said before kickoff Result: San Martín San Juan Res. win
San Martín San Juan Res. win Result
31.7%
Draw
24.9%
Central Córdoba SdE Res. winPick
43.4%

How our picks did

Based on the final score. It joins the public record at the next nightly settlement.

None of 3 hit
Match result
Our pickCentral Córdoba SdE Res. win · 43.4%
What happenedSan Martín San Juan Res. win · we gave it 31.7%
Missed
Over 2.5 goals
Our pickOver · 55.1%
What happenedUnder · 1 goal
Missed
Both teams to score
Our pickYes · 53.9%
What happenedNo · 1–0
Missed

How surprising was it?

Result: San Martín San Juan Res. win. In our numbers it ranked second of the three.

32%
chance we gave it
0%50%100%
1 in 3.2
on average
A pick at 43% is expected to miss about 6 times in 10. One match does not judge a model. The record across every settled match does.
See the full record

Timeline

Newest at the bottom

GoalV. Gonzalez
59'

Both teams to score

Yes53.9%
No46.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.555.1%
Under 2.544.9%

How much we know

San Martín San Juan Res. history57 matches
Central Córdoba SdE Res. history49 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Life of this match

Every step is time-stamped, from first prediction to settled result.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 9 h ahead
    29 Oct · 08:38 UTC
  2. Re-published 16 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 18:58 UTC
  3. Kickoff
    4 Nov · 18:00 UTC
  4. Full time: 1–0None of our three picks hit
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

Share this result

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The card keeps the pre-match numbers. A miss is shared as plainly as a hit.
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How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (43.4%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Central Córdoba SdE Res. are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,412 against 1,420. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • San Martín San Juan Res. score more

    1.05 goals a game over 57 matches for San Martín San Juan Res., against 0.92 over 49 for Central Córdoba SdE Res..

  • Central Córdoba SdE Res. concede fewer

    San Martín San Juan Res. concede 1.98 a game, Central Córdoba SdE Res. 1.61.

  • San Martín San Juan Res. games more often go over 2.5 goals

    58% of San Martín San Juan Res. matches, against 45% for Central Córdoba SdE Res.. The model puts this match at 55% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
San Martín San Juan Res.
Central Córdoba SdE Res.@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1411.7
ELO
1419.6
57
ELO · Matches
49
1411.7
Current Team ELO
1419.6
1419.6
Current Opponent ELO
1411.7
-7.96
Current ELO Difference
7.96
0.49
Expected score
0.51
57
History Matches
49
-0.08
Residual Mean
-0.09
44.26
Overperformance
43.73
0.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.02
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
0.40
1.20
Goals for per game
0.60
1.80
Goals against per game
1.40
40.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
1.10
0.90
Goals for per game
1.00
2.30
Goals against per game
1.10
20.0%
Win rate
30.0%
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
1.45
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.00
2.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
3.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.94
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
3.64
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.30
Overall performance9 signals
90
57
Matches
49
1.05
PPG
0.90
29.8%
Win rate
22.4%
15.8%
Draw rate
22.4%
54.4%
Loss rate
55.1%
73.7%
Over 1.5 rate
71.4%
57.9%
Over 2.5 rate
44.9%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
24.5%
2.53
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.55
Venue performance10 signals
100
28
Matches
27
1.29
PPG
0.67
35.7%
Win rate
14.8%
21.4%
Draw rate
22.2%
42.9%
Loss rate
63.0%
67.9%
Over 1.5 rate
74.1%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
44.4%
21.4%
Over 3.5 rate
25.9%
1.44
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.51
28
History Matches
27
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.05
Goals for per game
0.92
64.9%
Scoring rate
61.2%
45.6%
BTTS rate
53.1%
1.07
Goals for per game
0.81
75.0%
Scoring rate
59.3%
57.1%
BTTS rate
51.9%
0.92
Goals for per game
1.05
62.5%
Scoring rate
65.0%
54.2%
BTTS rate
55.0%
57
History Matches
49
1.05
Goals Mean
0.92
1.07
Goals Std
0.97
64.9%
Scored 1+ rate
61.2%
28.1%
Scored 2+ rate
20.4%
7.0%
Scored 3+ rate
8.2%
1.07
Venue Goals Mean
0.81
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.98
Goals against per game
1.61
73.7%
Conceding rate
87.8%
1.36
Goals against per game
1.74
71.4%
Conceding rate
88.9%
2.83
Goals against per game
1.60
79.2%
Conceding rate
85.0%
57
History Matches
49
1.98
Conceded Mean
1.61
2.04
Conceded Std
1.17
49.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
42.9%
29.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
20.4%
1.36
Venue Conceded Mean
1.74
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
26.3%
Clean-sheet rate
12.2%
35.1%
Failed-to-score rate
38.8%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
11.1%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
40.7%
20.8%
Clean-sheet rate
15.0%
37.5%
Failed-to-score rate
35.0%
26.3%
Clean-sheet rate
12.2%
35.1%
Failed-to-score rate
38.8%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
11.1%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
40.7%
26.3%
Clean-sheet rate
12.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
57
History Matches
49
0.90
Result entropy
0.91
2.53
Goal Difference Std
1.55
10.48
Stability score
9.05
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
57
Eligible Matches
49
13
Lead Matches
7
92.3%
Lead Win Rate
85.7%
0.92
Lead Points Retention
0.86
24
Trailing Matches
21
12.5%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
4.2%
Trailing Win Rate
9.5%
Goal timing5 signals
50
57
Halftime Coverage Matches
49
0.51
First Half Goals For Mean
0.47
0.84
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.80
0.54
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.45
1.14
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.82
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
71.00
Rest days
82.92
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
37
Normal Rest History Matches
23
1.05
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.96
19
Long Rest History Matches
25
0.95
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.76
Competition & season17 signals
170
24
Matches
20
0.71
PPG
1.00
16.7%
Win rate
25.0%
20.8%
Draw rate
25.0%
62.5%
Loss rate
50.0%
79.2%
Over 1.5 rate
70.0%
70.8%
Over 2.5 rate
40.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
35.0%
3.04
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.77
24
Current Competition Matches
20
0.71
Current Competition PPG
1.00
-1.92
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.55
2
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.30
Portability PPG Std
0.09
0.59
Portability PPG Range
0.17
62.71
Portability Score
85.29
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
57
Clean History Matches
49
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-7.96
PPG0.15
GF0.13
GA0.37
PPG-0.29
PPG0.62
PPG1.20
PPG-0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches8
Clean-sheet rate14.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.04
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate17.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.16
History Matches8
Goals Mean0.13
Goals Std0.10
Scored 1+ rate3.7%
Scored 2+ rate7.7%
Scored 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Goals Mean0.26
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.45
History Matches8
Conceded Mean0.37
Conceded Std0.86
Clean-sheet rate14.1%
Conceded 2+ rate6.3%
Conceded 3+ rate9.4%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.38
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std2.06
History Matches8
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std0.97
Stability score1.42
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.02
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std2.34
Eligible Matches8
Lead Matches6
Lead Win Rate6.6%
Lead Points Retention0.07
Trailing Matches3
Non-loss rate-0.21
Trailing Win Rate-0.05
Halftime Coverage Matches8
First Half Goals For Mean0.04
First Half Goals Against Mean0.05
Second Half Goals For Mean0.09
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.32
Current Competition Matches4
Current Competition PPG-0.29
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.37
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.21
Portability PPG Range0.42
Portability Score-22.59
Rest days-11.92
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches14
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.10
Long Rest History Matches-6
Long Rest Points Per Match0.19
Current Team ELO-7.96
Current Opponent ELO7.96
Current ELO Difference-15.92
Expected score-0.02
History Matches8
Residual Mean0.01
Overperformance0.53
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.06

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

San Martín San Juan Res.

L
Colón Res.3–1San Martín San Juan Res.28 Oct · away
Pick: Colón Res. 58% · hit
L
Independiente Riva. Res.3–2San Martín San Juan Res.21 Oct · away
Pick: Independiente Riva. Res. 62% · hit
W
San Martín San Juan Res.2–0Deportivo Riestra Res.14 Oct · home
Pick: Deportivo Riestra Res. 51% · missed
L
Belgrano Córdoba Res.3–2San Martín San Juan Res.8 Oct · away
Pick: Belgrano Córdoba Res. 71% · hit
W
San Martín San Juan Res.1–0Huracán Res.25 Aug · home
Pick: Huracán Res. 62% · missed

Central Córdoba SdE Res.

L
Central Córdoba SdE Res.0–1Independiente Riva. Res.28 Oct · home
Pick: Central Córdoba SdE Res. 37% · missed
L
Deportivo Riestra Res.3–1Central Córdoba SdE Res.22 Oct · away
Pick: Deportivo Riestra Res. 52% · hit
L
Central Córdoba SdE Res.1–2Belgrano Córdoba Res.15 Oct · home
Pick: Belgrano Córdoba Res. 40% · hit
L
Lanús Res.3–0Central Córdoba SdE Res.8 Oct · away
Pick: Lanús Res. 60% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Match report

San Martín San Juan Res. and Central Córdoba SdE Res. finished 1–0 in Reserve League on Wednesday 4 November 2026. It was 0–0 at half time. ScoreProb published its prediction on 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC, before kickoff: San Martín San Juan Res. win 31.7%, draw 24.9%, Central Córdoba SdE Res. win 43.4%. None of the three picks hit.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.