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National League England Round 17 2026

Scunthorpe vs Worthing

Scunthorpe Home · Elo 1,577
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Worthing Away · Elo 1,624
Attis Arena, Scunthorpe Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Worthing win
Scunthorpe win
36.1%
Draw
25.3%
Worthing winPick
38.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes56.8%
No43.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.555.0%
Under 2.545.0%

How much we know

Scunthorpe history89 matches
Worthing history88 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (38.6%). Picks in that band won 39.9% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,949 matches.

Why Worthing are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Worthing are rated 47 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,624 against 1,577. On rating alone Worthing would be expected to take 57% of the points on offer.

  • Worthing score more

    1.78 goals a game over 89 matches for Scunthorpe, against 2.05 over 88 for Worthing.

  • Defences are close

    Scunthorpe concede 1.17 a game, Worthing 1.19.

  • Worthing games more often go over 2.5 goals

    51% of Scunthorpe matches, against 67% for Worthing. The model puts this match at 55% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Scunthorpe
Worthing@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1577.2
ELO
1624.2
89
ELO · Matches
88
1577.2
Current Team ELO
1624.2
1624.2
Current Opponent ELO
1577.2
-46.97
Current ELO Difference
46.97
0.43
Expected score
0.57
89
History Matches
88
0.04
Residual Mean
0.07
53.36
Overperformance
55.98
-0.13
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.04
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
1.80
1.60
Goals for per game
1.80
1.20
Goals against per game
1.20
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
1.80
1.80
Goals for per game
1.60
1.50
Goals against per game
1.10
30.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
1.78
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.80
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
1.02
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.83
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.79
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.12
Overall performance9 signals
90
89
Matches
88
1.79
PPG
1.81
51.7%
Win rate
53.4%
23.6%
Draw rate
20.5%
24.7%
Loss rate
26.1%
80.9%
Over 1.5 rate
86.4%
50.6%
Over 2.5 rate
67.0%
33.7%
Over 3.5 rate
34.1%
1.65
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.86
Venue performance10 signals
100
45
Matches
42
2.02
PPG
1.50
60.0%
Win rate
42.9%
22.2%
Draw rate
21.4%
17.8%
Loss rate
35.7%
82.2%
Over 1.5 rate
83.3%
53.3%
Over 2.5 rate
69.0%
40.0%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
1.72
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.66
45
History Matches
42
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.78
Goals for per game
2.05
84.3%
Scoring rate
85.2%
58.4%
BTTS rate
60.2%
2.00
Goals for per game
1.83
91.1%
Scoring rate
78.6%
57.8%
BTTS rate
66.7%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.67
66.7%
Scoring rate
100.0%
66.7%
BTTS rate
66.7%
89
History Matches
88
1.78
Goals Mean
2.05
1.29
Goals Std
1.45
84.3%
Scored 1+ rate
85.2%
53.9%
Scored 2+ rate
62.5%
25.8%
Scored 3+ rate
33.0%
2.00
Venue Goals Mean
1.83
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.17
Goals against per game
1.19
71.9%
Conceding rate
72.7%
1.09
Goals against per game
1.48
64.4%
Conceding rate
88.1%
1.67
Goals against per game
1.33
100.0%
Conceding rate
66.7%
89
History Matches
88
1.17
Conceded Mean
1.19
1.09
Conceded Std
1.04
28.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
33.0%
12.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
9.1%
1.09
Venue Conceded Mean
1.48
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
28.1%
Clean-sheet rate
27.3%
15.7%
Failed-to-score rate
14.8%
35.6%
Clean-sheet rate
11.9%
8.9%
Failed-to-score rate
21.4%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
28.1%
Clean-sheet rate
27.3%
15.7%
Failed-to-score rate
14.8%
35.6%
Clean-sheet rate
11.9%
8.9%
Failed-to-score rate
21.4%
28.1%
Clean-sheet rate
27.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
89
History Matches
88
0.94
Result entropy
0.92
1.65
Goal Difference Std
1.86
6.49
Stability score
8.04
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
88
Eligible Matches
87
38
Lead Matches
39
84.2%
Lead Win Rate
79.5%
0.89
Lead Points Retention
0.85
23
Trailing Matches
23
34.8%
Non-loss rate
47.8%
8.7%
Trailing Win Rate
30.4%
Goal timing5 signals
50
88
Halftime Coverage Matches
87
0.78
First Half Goals For Mean
0.85
0.53
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.59
1.00
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.20
0.65
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.60
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
84.15
Rest days
84.15
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
7
Short Rest History Matches
5
1.57
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.60
73
Normal Rest History Matches
77
1.82
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.79
8
Long Rest History Matches
5
1.50
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
0.33
PPG
2.00
0.0%
Win rate
66.7%
33.3%
Draw rate
0.0%
66.7%
Loss rate
33.3%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
0.47
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.94
3
Current Competition Matches
3
0.33
Current Competition PPG
2.00
-0.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.33
10
Competition Season Count
10
7
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.55
Portability PPG Std
0.14
1.83
Portability PPG Range
0.39
47.50
Portability Score
78.01
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
89
Clean History Matches
88
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-46.97
PPG-0.02
GF-0.27
GA-0.02
PPG-1.67
PPG0.52
PPG-0.80
PPG-0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate0.8%
Failed-to-score rate1.0%
History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate23.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.13
History Matches1
Goals Mean-0.27
Goals Std-0.17
Scored 1+ rate-0.01
Scored 2+ rate-0.09
Scored 3+ rate-0.07
Venue Goals Mean0.17
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std0.98
History Matches1
Conceded Mean-0.02
Conceded Std0.05
Clean-sheet rate0.8%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.05
Conceded 3+ rate3.3%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.39
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.19
History Matches1
Result entropy0.02
Goal Difference Std-0.21
Stability score-1.55
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.67
Eligible Matches1
Lead Matches-1
Lead Win Rate4.7%
Lead Points Retention0.04
Trailing Matches0
Non-loss rate-0.13
Trailing Win Rate-0.22
Halftime Coverage Matches1
First Half Goals For Mean-0.07
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.05
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.20
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.05
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.00
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.41
Portability PPG Range1.44
Portability Score-30.50
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.03
Normal Rest History Matches-4
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.03
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.50
Current Team ELO-46.97
Current Opponent ELO46.97
Current ELO Difference-93.95
Expected score-0.13
History Matches1
Residual Mean-0.03
Overperformance-2.61
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.17

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Scunthorpe

L
Port Vale4–2Scunthorpe7 Nov · away
Pick: Port Vale 41% · hit
L
Boston United2–1Scunthorpe31 Oct · away
Pick: Boston United 46% · hit
L
Tamworth4–1Scunthorpe27 Oct · away
Pick: Scunthorpe 39% · missed
L
Scunthorpe2–3Woking24 Oct · home
Pick: Scunthorpe 47% · missed
W
Boston United1–3Scunthorpe17 Oct · away
Pick: Scunthorpe 41% · hit

Worthing

W
Worthing2–1Fulham U213 Nov · home
Pick: Worthing 60% · hit
L
Worthing0–3Sutton Utd31 Oct · home
Pick: Sutton Utd 41% · hit
D
Worthing3–3Southend27 Oct · home
Pick: Worthing 35% · missed
W
Kidderminster Harriers1–2Worthing24 Oct · away
Pick: Kidderminster Harriers 37% · missed
L
Wealdstone3–0Worthing17 Oct · away
Pick: Wealdstone 43% · hit

About this match

Scunthorpe and Worthing meet in National League on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. The match is played at Attis Arena, Scunthorpe. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Scunthorpe win 36.1%, draw 25.3%, Worthing win 38.6%. The pick is Worthing win. Over 2.5 goals: 55.0%. Both teams to score: 56.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.