Slavia Sofia II vs Belasitsa
Match result probability Model pick: Slavia Sofia II win
Slavia Sofia II winPick
38.9%
Draw
25.8%
Belasitsa win
35.3%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes54.5%
No45.5%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.554.5%
Under 2.545.5%
How much we know
Slavia Sofia II history49 matches
Belasitsa history58 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Slavia Sofia II
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 11:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre14 Nov · 12:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (38.9%). Picks in that band won 39.9% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,949 matches.
Why Slavia Sofia II are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Slavia Sofia II are rated 108 Elo points higher
Elo 1,517 against 1,409. On rating alone Slavia Sofia II would be expected to take 65% of the points on offer.
-
Slavia Sofia II score far more
1.63 goals a game over 49 matches for Slavia Sofia II, against 0.95 over 58 for Belasitsa.
-
Slavia Sofia II concede fewer
Slavia Sofia II concede 1.33 a game, Belasitsa 1.78.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
55% of Slavia Sofia II matches, against 50% for Belasitsa. The model puts this match at 54% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Belasitsa@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1516.9
ELO
1409.1
49
ELO · Matches
58
1516.9
Current Team ELO
1409.1
1409.1
Current Opponent ELO
1516.9
107.7
Current ELO Difference
-107.7
0.65
Expected score
0.35
49
History Matches
58
0.02
Residual Mean
-0.08
51.32
Overperformance
44.29
0.01
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.10
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
2.00
1.00
Goals for per game
2.40
0.80
Goals against per game
1.60
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
1.30
2.00
Goals for per game
1.80
1.10
Goals against per game
1.80
50.0%
Win rate
40.0%
2.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.80
2.24
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.17
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.80
1.45
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.47
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
2.88
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.84
Overall performance9 signals 90
49
Matches
58
1.43
PPG
0.90
38.8%
Win rate
22.4%
26.5%
Draw rate
22.4%
34.7%
Loss rate
55.2%
77.6%
Over 1.5 rate
70.7%
55.1%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
30.6%
Over 3.5 rate
25.9%
2.06
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.77
Venue performance10 signals 100
25
Matches
29
1.68
PPG
0.59
48.0%
Win rate
13.8%
24.0%
Draw rate
17.2%
28.0%
Loss rate
69.0%
76.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.9%
52.0%
Over 2.5 rate
55.2%
32.0%
Over 3.5 rate
34.5%
1.89
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.73
25
History Matches
29
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
1.63
Goals for per game
0.95
77.6%
Scoring rate
58.6%
57.1%
BTTS rate
43.1%
1.88
Goals for per game
0.72
88.0%
Scoring rate
51.7%
64.0%
BTTS rate
44.8%
0.50
Goals for per game
2.50
50.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
25.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
49
History Matches
58
1.63
Goals Mean
0.95
1.53
Goals Std
1.04
77.6%
Scored 1+ rate
58.6%
42.9%
Scored 2+ rate
22.4%
24.5%
Scored 3+ rate
12.1%
1.88
Venue Goals Mean
0.72
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
1.33
Goals against per game
1.78
73.5%
Conceding rate
75.9%
1.16
Goals against per game
2.10
76.0%
Conceding rate
86.2%
1.00
Goals against per game
2.00
75.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
49
History Matches
58
1.33
Conceded Mean
1.78
1.25
Conceded Std
1.54
32.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
50.0%
14.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
27.6%
1.16
Venue Conceded Mean
2.10
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
26.5%
Clean-sheet rate
24.1%
22.4%
Failed-to-score rate
41.4%
24.0%
Clean-sheet rate
13.8%
12.0%
Failed-to-score rate
48.3%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
26.5%
Clean-sheet rate
24.1%
22.4%
Failed-to-score rate
41.4%
24.0%
Clean-sheet rate
13.8%
12.0%
Failed-to-score rate
48.3%
26.5%
Clean-sheet rate
24.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
49
History Matches
58
0.99
Result entropy
0.91
2.06
Goal Difference Std
1.77
1.09
Stability score
9.11
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
20
Eligible Matches
58
9
Lead Matches
6
66.7%
Lead Win Rate
50.0%
0.74
Lead Points Retention
0.61
5
Trailing Matches
22
40.0%
Non-loss rate
9.1%
40.0%
Trailing Win Rate
4.5%
Goal timing5 signals 50
20
Halftime Coverage Matches
58
1.00
First Half Goals For Mean
0.40
0.55
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.76
1.00
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.55
0.70
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.02
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
82.88
Rest days
83.88
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
5
Short Rest History Matches
1
1.20
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
25
Normal Rest History Matches
28
1.16
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.89
18
Long Rest History Matches
28
1.94
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.96
Competition & season17 signals 170
4
Matches
4
0.75
PPG
1.75
25.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
75.0%
Loss rate
25.0%
25.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
25.0%
Over 2.5 rate
75.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
0.87
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.12
4
Current Competition Matches
4
0.75
Current Competition PPG
1.75
-0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.50
3
Competition Season Count
6
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.46
Portability PPG Std
0.46
1.02
Portability PPG Range
1.16
52.10
Portability Score
52.30
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
49
Clean History Matches
58
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO107.7
PPG0.53
GF0.68
GA-0.45
PPG-1.00
PPG1.09
PPG-0.80
PPG0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-9
Clean-sheet rate2.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.19
History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate10.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.36
History Matches-9
Goals Mean0.68
Goals Std0.49
Scored 1+ rate18.9%
Scored 2+ rate20.4%
Scored 3+ rate12.4%
Venue Goals Mean1.16
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std1.07
History Matches-9
Conceded Mean-0.45
Conceded Std-0.29
Clean-sheet rate2.4%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.17
Conceded 3+ rate-0.13
Venue Conceded Mean-0.94
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.02
History Matches-9
Result entropy0.08
Goal Difference Std0.29
Stability score-8.02
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.04
Eligible Matches-38
Lead Matches3
Lead Win Rate16.7%
Lead Points Retention0.13
Trailing Matches-17
Non-loss rate30.9%
Trailing Win Rate35.5%
Halftime Coverage Matches-38
First Half Goals For Mean0.60
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.21
Second Half Goals For Mean0.45
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.32
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.00
Competition Season Count-3
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std0.00
Portability PPG Range-0.13
Portability Score-0.19
Rest days-1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches4
Short Rest Points Per Match1.20
Normal Rest History Matches-3
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.27
Long Rest History Matches-10
Long Rest Points Per Match0.98
Current Team ELO107.7
Current Opponent ELO-107.7
Current ELO Difference215.5
Expected score0.30
History Matches-9
Residual Mean0.10
Overperformance7.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.09
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Slavia Sofia II
W
Slavia Sofia II2–1Bansko4 Nov · home
Pick: Bansko 40% · missed D
Slavia Sofia II1–1Strumska Slava24 Oct · home
Pick: Strumska Slava 50% · missed L
FK Minyor Pernik5–1Slavia Sofia II7 Oct · away
Pick: FK Minyor Pernik 56% · hit W
Slavia Sofia II1–0Balkan Botevgrad29 Aug · home
Pick: Slavia Sofia II 44% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
Belasitsa
W
Botev Ihtiman1–2Belasitsa31 Oct · away
Pick: Botev Ihtiman 38% · missed D
Kyustendil0–0Belasitsa24 Oct · away
Pick: Kyustendil 41% · missed L
Belasitsa0–2CSKA Sofia III17 Oct · home
Pick: Belasitsa 49% · missed L
Belasitsa1–2Balkan Botevgrad7 Oct · home
Pick: Belasitsa 52% · missed L
Belasitsa1–2Dobrudzha4 Oct · home
Pick: Dobrudzha 43% · hit About this match
Slavia Sofia II and Belasitsa meet in Third League - Southwest on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Slavia Sofia II win 38.9%, draw 25.8%, Belasitsa win 35.3%. The pick is Slavia Sofia II win. Over 2.5 goals: 54.5%. Both teams to score: 54.5%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.