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Third League - Southwest Bulgaria Southwest - 17 2026

Slivnishki geroy vs Septemvri Simitli

Slivnishki geroy Home · Elo 1,479
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Septemvri Simitli Away · Elo 1,530
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Septemvri Simitli win
Slivnishki geroy win
34.3%
Draw
28.2%
Septemvri Simitli winPick
37.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes48.4%
No51.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.549.3%
Under 2.550.7%

How much we know

Slivnishki geroy history52 matches
Septemvri Simitli history53 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (37.5%). Picks in that band won 39.9% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,949 matches.

Why Septemvri Simitli are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Septemvri Simitli are rated 51 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,530 against 1,479. On rating alone Septemvri Simitli would be expected to take 57% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.25 goals a game over 52 matches for Slivnishki geroy, against 1.26 over 53 for Septemvri Simitli.

  • Septemvri Simitli concede fewer

    Slivnishki geroy concede 1.42 a game, Septemvri Simitli 1.17.

  • Slivnishki geroy games more often go over 2.5 goals

    60% of Slivnishki geroy matches, against 43% for Septemvri Simitli. The model puts this match at 49% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Slivnishki geroy
Septemvri Simitli@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1479.2
ELO
1529.9
52
ELO · Matches
53
1479.2
Current Team ELO
1529.9
1529.9
Current Opponent ELO
1479.2
-50.69
Current ELO Difference
50.69
0.43
Expected score
0.57
52
History Matches
53
-0.02
Residual Mean
0.02
48.64
Overperformance
51.39
0.08
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.22
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
2.00
1.20
Goals for per game
1.80
1.80
Goals against per game
1.00
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
2.00
1.40
Goals for per game
1.90
1.30
Goals against per game
0.80
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.90
1.02
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.22
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.80
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.25
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.64
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.70
Overall performance9 signals
90
52
Matches
53
1.25
PPG
1.47
34.6%
Win rate
41.5%
21.2%
Draw rate
22.6%
44.2%
Loss rate
35.8%
71.2%
Over 1.5 rate
67.9%
59.6%
Over 2.5 rate
43.4%
28.8%
Over 3.5 rate
22.6%
1.83
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.66
Venue performance10 signals
100
26
Matches
29
1.62
PPG
1.03
46.2%
Win rate
27.6%
23.1%
Draw rate
20.7%
30.8%
Loss rate
51.7%
65.4%
Over 1.5 rate
72.4%
53.8%
Over 2.5 rate
51.7%
38.5%
Over 3.5 rate
27.6%
1.84
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.79
26
History Matches
29
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.25
Goals for per game
1.26
65.4%
Scoring rate
67.9%
46.2%
BTTS rate
45.3%
1.62
Goals for per game
1.10
69.2%
Scoring rate
62.1%
34.6%
BTTS rate
48.3%
1.50
Goals for per game
1.50
100.0%
Scoring rate
75.0%
75.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
52
History Matches
53
1.25
Goals Mean
1.26
1.19
Goals Std
1.17
65.4%
Scored 1+ rate
67.9%
36.5%
Scored 2+ rate
37.7%
19.2%
Scored 3+ rate
15.1%
1.62
Venue Goals Mean
1.10
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.42
Goals against per game
1.17
73.1%
Conceding rate
64.2%
1.15
Goals against per game
1.52
57.7%
Conceding rate
75.9%
1.50
Goals against per game
1.25
75.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
52
History Matches
53
1.42
Conceded Mean
1.17
1.20
Conceded Std
1.22
44.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
34.0%
17.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
11.3%
1.15
Venue Conceded Mean
1.52
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
26.9%
Clean-sheet rate
35.8%
34.6%
Failed-to-score rate
32.1%
42.3%
Clean-sheet rate
24.1%
30.8%
Failed-to-score rate
37.9%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
26.9%
Clean-sheet rate
35.8%
34.6%
Failed-to-score rate
32.1%
42.3%
Clean-sheet rate
24.1%
30.8%
Failed-to-score rate
37.9%
26.9%
Clean-sheet rate
35.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
52
History Matches
53
0.96
Result entropy
0.97
1.83
Goal Difference Std
1.66
3.82
Stability score
2.69
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
16
Eligible Matches
25
4
Lead Matches
6
75.0%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
0.83
Lead Points Retention
1.00
5
Trailing Matches
6
0.0%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
16.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
16
Halftime Coverage Matches
25
0.44
First Half Goals For Mean
0.40
0.56
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.40
0.25
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.60
0.75
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.36
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
83.88
Rest days
83.88
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
5
Short Rest History Matches
3
0.60
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.00
35
Normal Rest History Matches
34
1.43
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.32
11
Long Rest History Matches
15
1.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.80
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
1.50
PPG
1.75
50.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
25.0%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
75.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
1.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.48
4
Current Competition Matches
4
1.50
Current Competition PPG
1.75
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.25
3
Competition Season Count
5
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.13
Portability PPG Std
0.17
0.30
Portability PPG Range
0.42
79.04
Portability Score
74.23
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
52
Clean History Matches
53
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-50.69
PPG-0.22
GF-0.01
GA0.25
PPG-0.25
PPG0.58
PPG-0.80
PPG-0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate-0.09
Failed-to-score rate2.5%
History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate18.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.07
History Matches-1
Goals Mean-0.01
Goals Std0.02
Scored 1+ rate-0.03
Scored 2+ rate-0.01
Scored 3+ rate4.1%
Venue Goals Mean0.51
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.20
History Matches-1
Conceded Mean0.25
Conceded Std-0.03
Clean-sheet rate-0.09
Conceded 2+ rate10.3%
Conceded 3+ rate6.0%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.36
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.15
History Matches-1
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std0.16
Stability score1.13
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.06
Eligible Matches-9
Lead Matches-2
Lead Win Rate-0.25
Lead Points Retention-0.17
Trailing Matches-1
Non-loss rate-0.33
Trailing Win Rate-0.17
Halftime Coverage Matches-9
First Half Goals For Mean0.04
First Half Goals Against Mean0.16
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.35
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.39
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.25
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.04
Portability PPG Range-0.12
Portability Score4.82
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.40
Normal Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.11
Long Rest History Matches-4
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.80
Current Team ELO-50.69
Current Opponent ELO50.69
Current ELO Difference-101.4
Expected score-0.14
History Matches-1
Residual Mean-0.04
Overperformance-2.75
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.14

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Slivnishki geroy

D
Slivnishki geroy0–0Oborishte31 Oct · home
Pick: Oborishte 40% · missed
D
Slivnishki geroy0–0FK Minyor Pernik24 Oct · home
Pick: FK Minyor Pernik 41% · missed
W
Pirin Razlog1–2Slivnishki geroy17 Oct · away
Pick: Slivnishki geroy 41% · hit
W
Septemvri Sofia II1–2Slivnishki geroy29 Aug · away
Pick: Septemvri Sofia II 51% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Septemvri Simitli

D
Botev Ihtiman2–2Septemvri Simitli24 Oct · away
Pick: Botev Ihtiman 37% · missed
D
Septemvri Simitli3–3Natsional Sofia29 Aug · home
Pick: Septemvri Simitli 74% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Slivnishki geroy and Septemvri Simitli meet in Third League - Southwest on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Slivnishki geroy win 34.3%, draw 28.2%, Septemvri Simitli win 37.5%. The pick is Septemvri Simitli win. Over 2.5 goals: 49.3%. Both teams to score: 48.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.