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National League England Round 17 2026

Southend vs Aldershot Town

Southend Home · Elo 1,628
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Aldershot Town Away · Elo 1,512
Roots Hall, Southend on Sea Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Southend win
Southend winPick
57.4%
Draw
19.7%
Aldershot Town win
22.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes49.3%
No50.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.553.2%
Under 2.546.8%

How much we know

Southend history90 matches
Aldershot Town history95 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (57.4%). Picks in that band won 55.6% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 4,146 matches.

Why Southend are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Southend are rated 116 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,628 against 1,512. On rating alone Southend would be expected to take 66% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.69 goals a game over 90 matches for Southend, against 1.62 over 95 for Aldershot Town.

  • Southend concede fewer

    Southend concede 1.01 a game, Aldershot Town 1.66.

  • Aldershot Town games more often go over 2.5 goals

    52% of Southend matches, against 67% for Aldershot Town. The model puts this match at 53% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Southend
Aldershot Town@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1628.1
ELO
1511.6
90
ELO · Matches
95
1628.1
Current Team ELO
1511.6
1511.6
Current Opponent ELO
1628.1
116.5
Current ELO Difference
-116.5
0.66
Expected score
0.34
90
History Matches
95
0.07
Residual Mean
0.00
55.78
Overperformance
50.14
0.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.22
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.60
PPG
1.60
2.40
Goals for per game
1.20
0.60
Goals against per game
1.00
80.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.80
PPG
2.00
1.60
Goals for per game
1.50
0.90
Goals against per game
0.90
50.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
1.28
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.67
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.90
0.83
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.94
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.62
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.28
Overall performance9 signals
90
90
Matches
95
1.76
PPG
1.39
48.9%
Win rate
41.1%
28.9%
Draw rate
15.8%
22.2%
Loss rate
43.2%
77.8%
Over 1.5 rate
88.4%
52.2%
Over 2.5 rate
67.4%
25.6%
Over 3.5 rate
38.9%
1.62
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.06
Venue performance10 signals
100
46
Matches
50
1.91
PPG
1.46
54.3%
Win rate
44.0%
28.3%
Draw rate
14.0%
17.4%
Loss rate
42.0%
78.3%
Over 1.5 rate
86.0%
45.7%
Over 2.5 rate
64.0%
21.7%
Over 3.5 rate
34.0%
1.69
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.25
46
History Matches
50
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.69
Goals for per game
1.62
81.1%
Scoring rate
78.9%
54.4%
BTTS rate
60.0%
1.65
Goals for per game
1.62
78.3%
Scoring rate
76.0%
47.8%
BTTS rate
52.0%
2.33
Goals for per game
0.67
100.0%
Scoring rate
66.7%
66.7%
BTTS rate
33.3%
90
History Matches
95
1.69
Goals Mean
1.62
1.30
Goals Std
1.23
81.1%
Scored 1+ rate
78.9%
48.9%
Scored 2+ rate
52.6%
27.8%
Scored 3+ rate
22.1%
1.65
Venue Goals Mean
1.62
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.01
Goals against per game
1.66
67.8%
Conceding rate
77.9%
0.85
Goals against per game
1.58
60.9%
Conceding rate
72.0%
0.67
Goals against per game
0.67
66.7%
Conceding rate
66.7%
90
History Matches
95
1.01
Conceded Mean
1.66
0.92
Conceded Std
1.39
24.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
49.5%
7.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
24.2%
0.85
Venue Conceded Mean
1.58
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
32.2%
Clean-sheet rate
22.1%
18.9%
Failed-to-score rate
21.1%
39.1%
Clean-sheet rate
28.0%
21.7%
Failed-to-score rate
24.0%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
32.2%
Clean-sheet rate
22.1%
18.9%
Failed-to-score rate
21.1%
39.1%
Clean-sheet rate
28.0%
21.7%
Failed-to-score rate
24.0%
32.2%
Clean-sheet rate
22.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
90
History Matches
95
0.95
Result entropy
0.93
1.62
Goal Difference Std
2.06
5.08
Stability score
7.19
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
89
Eligible Matches
95
35
Lead Matches
28
88.6%
Lead Win Rate
75.0%
0.92
Lead Points Retention
0.81
20
Trailing Matches
39
45.0%
Non-loss rate
23.1%
5.0%
Trailing Win Rate
12.8%
Goal timing5 signals
50
89
Halftime Coverage Matches
95
0.73
First Half Goals For Mean
0.67
0.45
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.86
0.96
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.95
0.56
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.80
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
84.15
Rest days
84.15
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
9
Short Rest History Matches
9
1.89
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.22
68
Normal Rest History Matches
76
1.79
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.34
12
Long Rest History Matches
9
1.33
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.78
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
3.00
PPG
1.33
100.0%
Win rate
33.3%
0.0%
Draw rate
33.3%
0.0%
Loss rate
33.3%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
33.3%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
66.7%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
0.47
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.82
3
Current Competition Matches
3
3.00
Current Competition PPG
1.33
1.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
8
Competition Season Count
11
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
7
0.59
Portability PPG Std
0.70
1.50
Portability PPG Range
2.00
45.82
Portability Score
41.54
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
90
Clean History Matches
95
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO116.5
PPG0.37
GF0.07
GA-0.65
PPG1.67
PPG0.45
PPG1.00
PPG-0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-5
Clean-sheet rate10.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.02
History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate11.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.02
History Matches-5
Goals Mean0.07
Goals Std0.06
Scored 1+ rate2.2%
Scored 2+ rate-0.04
Scored 3+ rate5.7%
Venue Goals Mean0.03
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.61
History Matches-5
Conceded Mean-0.65
Conceded Std-0.46
Clean-sheet rate10.1%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.25
Conceded 3+ rate-0.16
Venue Conceded Mean-0.73
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.11
History Matches-5
Result entropy0.02
Goal Difference Std-0.44
Stability score-2.11
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.07
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.33
Eligible Matches-6
Lead Matches7
Lead Win Rate13.6%
Lead Points Retention0.11
Trailing Matches-19
Non-loss rate21.9%
Trailing Win Rate-0.08
Halftime Coverage Matches-6
First Half Goals For Mean0.06
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.41
Second Half Goals For Mean0.01
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.24
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.67
Competition Season Count-3
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.11
Portability PPG Range-0.50
Portability Score4.28
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match0.67
Normal Rest History Matches-8
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.45
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.44
Current Team ELO116.5
Current Opponent ELO-116.5
Current ELO Difference233.0
Expected score0.32
History Matches-5
Residual Mean0.07
Overperformance5.65
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.20

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Southend

L
Wealdstone3–2Southend31 Oct · away
Pick: Southend 45% · missed
D
Worthing3–3Southend27 Oct · away
Pick: Worthing 35% · missed
D
Southend2–2FC Halifax Town24 Oct · home
Pick: Southend 53% · missed
L
Southend1–2Berkhamsted17 Oct · home
Pick: Southend 60% · missed
D
Woking1–1Southend31 Aug · away
Pick: Southend 46% · missed

Aldershot Town

L
Barnsley7–2Aldershot Town7 Nov · away
Pick: Aldershot Town 45% · missed
L
Aldershot Town0–5Ipswich Town U213 Nov · home
Pick: Aldershot Town 68% · missed
W
Aldershot Town1–0Gateshead31 Oct · home
Pick: Aldershot Town 52% · hit
L
Sutton Utd2–0Aldershot Town28 Oct · away
Pick: Sutton Utd 51% · hit
L
Aldershot Town0–1Wealdstone24 Oct · home
Pick: Aldershot Town 52% · missed

About this match

Southend and Aldershot Town meet in National League on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. The match is played at Roots Hall, Southend on Sea. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Southend win 57.4%, draw 19.7%, Aldershot Town win 22.9%. The pick is Southend win. Over 2.5 goals: 53.2%. Both teams to score: 49.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.