ScoreProb
3. liga - CFL A Czechia Group A - 8 2026

Sparta Praha II vs Viktoria Plzeň II

Sparta Praha II Home · Elo 1,444
Full time
1–3
Half time 0–1
Wed 4 Nov · 09:15 UTC
Viktoria Plzeň II Away · Elo 1,591
TCM Strahov, Prague Referee: to be announced Pick published 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC, before kickoff
What we said before kickoff Result: Viktoria Plzeň II win
Sparta Praha II win
26.7%
Draw
24.0%
Viktoria Plzeň II winPick Result
49.3%

How our picks did

Based on the final score. It joins the public record at the next nightly settlement.

3 of 3 hit
Match result
Our pickViktoria Plzeň II win · 49.3%
What happenedViktoria Plzeň II win · we gave it 49.3%
Hit
Over 2.5 goals
Our pickOver · 60.2%
What happenedOver · 4 goals
Hit
Both teams to score
Our pickYes · 54.1%
What happenedYes · 1–3
Hit

How surprising was it?

Result: Viktoria Plzeň II win. In our numbers it ranked first of the three.

49%
chance we gave it
0%50%100%
1 in 2.0
on average
A pick at 49% is expected to miss about 5 times in 10. One match does not judge a model. The record across every settled match does.
See the full record

Timeline

Newest at the bottom

Yellow cardC. Bolorbold
22'
Red cardS. Zajac
44'
SubstitutionC. Bolorbold off · P. Vilimek on
45'
45+2'
Penalty goalJ. Kopic
Yellow cardL. Azaka
47'
51'
GoalF. Visna
60'
GoalP. Hasek
GoalA. Vitarigov
61'
SubstitutionE. Cobbaut off · A. Vitarigov on
61'
SubstitutionM. Frydek off · D. Krpalek on
61'
67'
Yellow cardZ. Paidar
69'
Yellow cardJ. Abrham
74'
SubstitutionP. Hasek off · S. Balaz on
74'
SubstitutionA. Sneberger off · N. Chumlen on
Yellow cardD. Krpalek
76'
Yellow cardV. Novak
79'
79'
SubstitutionJ. Kopic off · O. Ruzicka on
SubstitutionS. Pavlo off · L. Zika on
81'
88'
SubstitutionF. Visna off · M. Kubrycht on

Lineups

Published about an hour before kickoff

Lineups are not out yet. They usually appear about an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. The prediction does not use lineups.

Match stats

Sparta Praha II left, Viktoria Plzeň II right

Match statistics are not provided for this competition by our data source.

Both teams to score

Yes54.1%
No45.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.560.2%
Under 2.539.8%

How much we know

Sparta Praha II history61 matches
Viktoria Plzeň II history58 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Life of this match

Every step is time-stamped, from first prediction to settled result.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 0 h ahead
    29 Oct · 08:38 UTC
  2. Re-published 16 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 18:58 UTC
  3. Kickoff
    4 Nov · 09:15 UTC
  4. Full time: 1–3All three of our picks hit
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

Share this result

A picture made for this match: teams, our probabilities and the verified stamp. Works in chats and on social.

The card keeps the pre-match numbers. A miss is shared as plainly as a hit.
Save picture

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (49.3%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Viktoria Plzeň II are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Viktoria Plzeň II are rated 147 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,591 against 1,444. On rating alone Viktoria Plzeň II would be expected to take 70% of the points on offer.

  • Viktoria Plzeň II score far more

    1.07 goals a game over 61 matches for Sparta Praha II, against 2.21 over 58 for Viktoria Plzeň II.

  • Defences are close

    Sparta Praha II concede 1.49 a game, Viktoria Plzeň II 1.50.

  • Viktoria Plzeň II games more often go over 2.5 goals

    54% of Sparta Praha II matches, against 71% for Viktoria Plzeň II. The model puts this match at 60% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Sparta Praha II
Viktoria Plzeň II
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1444.3
ELO
1591.5
61
ELO · Matches
58
1444.3
Current Team ELO
1591.5
1591.5
Current Opponent ELO
1444.3
-147.2
Current ELO Difference
147.2
0.30
Expected score
0.70
61
History Matches
58
-0.04
Residual Mean
0.07
47.27
Overperformance
55.27
-0.15
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.00
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
2.00
1.40
Goals for per game
2.00
1.80
Goals against per game
1.00
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
0.70
PPG
1.70
1.30
Goals for per game
2.40
1.80
Goals against per game
1.90
20.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.40
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.36
1.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.90
0.98
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.37
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.43
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.75
Overall performance9 signals
90
61
Matches
58
1.13
PPG
1.76
31.1%
Win rate
50.0%
19.7%
Draw rate
25.9%
49.2%
Loss rate
24.1%
70.5%
Over 1.5 rate
91.4%
54.1%
Over 2.5 rate
70.7%
24.6%
Over 3.5 rate
46.6%
1.74
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.15
Venue performance10 signals
100
33
Matches
31
1.30
PPG
1.42
36.4%
Win rate
35.5%
21.2%
Draw rate
35.5%
42.4%
Loss rate
29.0%
60.6%
Over 1.5 rate
90.3%
42.4%
Over 2.5 rate
71.0%
24.2%
Over 3.5 rate
51.6%
1.58
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.84
33
History Matches
31
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.07
Goals for per game
2.21
63.9%
Scoring rate
91.4%
45.9%
BTTS rate
72.4%
1.12
Goals for per game
1.90
63.6%
Scoring rate
87.1%
42.4%
BTTS rate
77.4%
1.00
Goals for per game
2.33
50.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
66.7%
61
History Matches
58
1.07
Goals Mean
2.21
1.05
Goals Std
1.74
63.9%
Scored 1+ rate
91.4%
31.1%
Scored 2+ rate
60.3%
8.2%
Scored 3+ rate
27.6%
1.12
Venue Goals Mean
1.90
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.49
Goals against per game
1.50
75.4%
Conceding rate
81.0%
1.21
Goals against per game
1.81
69.7%
Conceding rate
90.3%
1.50
Goals against per game
1.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
66.7%
61
History Matches
58
1.49
Conceded Mean
1.50
1.22
Conceded Std
1.09
45.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
48.3%
19.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
15.5%
1.21
Venue Conceded Mean
1.81
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
24.6%
Clean-sheet rate
19.0%
36.1%
Failed-to-score rate
8.6%
30.3%
Clean-sheet rate
9.7%
36.4%
Failed-to-score rate
12.9%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
24.6%
Clean-sheet rate
19.0%
36.1%
Failed-to-score rate
8.6%
30.3%
Clean-sheet rate
9.7%
36.4%
Failed-to-score rate
12.9%
24.6%
Clean-sheet rate
19.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
61
History Matches
58
0.94
Result entropy
0.95
1.74
Goal Difference Std
2.15
6.05
Stability score
5.39
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
59
Eligible Matches
58
13
Lead Matches
21
84.6%
Lead Win Rate
81.0%
0.87
Lead Points Retention
0.87
20
Trailing Matches
16
15.0%
Non-loss rate
37.5%
5.0%
Trailing Win Rate
12.5%
Goal timing5 signals
50
59
Halftime Coverage Matches
58
0.46
First Half Goals For Mean
1.02
0.75
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.76
0.56
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.19
0.75
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.74
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
80.04
Rest days
74.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
4
0.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.75
28
Normal Rest History Matches
25
1.39
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.76
30
Long Rest History Matches
28
0.97
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.96
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
3
0.50
PPG
2.33
0.0%
Win rate
66.7%
50.0%
Draw rate
33.3%
50.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
66.7%
0.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.25
2
Current Competition Matches
3
0.50
Current Competition PPG
2.33
-0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.33
5
Competition Season Count
5
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.33
Portability PPG Std
0.32
0.81
Portability PPG Range
0.83
60.37
Portability Score
60.65
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
61
Clean History Matches
58
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-147.2
PPG-0.63
GF-1.14
GA-0.01
PPG-1.83
PPG-0.12
PPG-1.20
PPG-1.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate5.6%
Failed-to-score rate27.4%
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate20.6%
Failed-to-score rate23.5%
History Matches3
Goals Mean-1.14
Goals Std-0.69
Scored 1+ rate-0.27
Scored 2+ rate-0.29
Scored 3+ rate-0.19
Venue Goals Mean-0.78
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.26
History Matches3
Conceded Mean-0.01
Conceded Std0.14
Clean-sheet rate5.6%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.02
Conceded 3+ rate4.2%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.59
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.39
History Matches3
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.41
Stability score0.66
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.21
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.31
Eligible Matches1
Lead Matches-8
Lead Win Rate3.7%
Lead Points Retention0.00
Trailing Matches4
Non-loss rate-0.23
Trailing Win Rate-0.08
Halftime Coverage Matches1
First Half Goals For Mean-0.56
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.01
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.63
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.00
Current Competition Matches-1
Current Competition PPG-1.83
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.83
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.00
Portability PPG Range-0.02
Portability Score-0.29
Rest days6.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.25
Normal Rest History Matches3
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.37
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match-1.00
Current Team ELO-147.2
Current Opponent ELO147.2
Current ELO Difference-294.4
Expected score-0.40
History Matches3
Residual Mean-0.11
Overperformance-8.00
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.15

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Sparta Praha II

D
Králův Dvůr1–1Sparta Praha II28 Oct · away
Pick: Králův Dvůr 60% · missed
L
Sparta Praha II0–1Písek25 Oct · home
Pick: Písek 48% · hit
D
Motorlet Praha1–1Sparta Praha II17 Oct · away
Pick: Motorlet Praha 58% · missed
W
Sparta Praha II4–0Příbram II30 Aug · home
Pick: Sparta Praha II 47% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Viktoria Plzeň II

W
Viktoria Plzeň II3–0Benešov1 Nov · home
Pick: Viktoria Plzeň II 53% · hit
W
Jiskra Domažlice1–4Viktoria Plzeň II24 Oct · away
Pick: Jiskra Domažlice 49% · missed
W
Viktoria Plzeň II3–0Aritma Praha18 Oct · home
Pick: Viktoria Plzeň II 53% · hit
W
Viktoria Plzeň II3–0Dukla Praha II4 Oct · home
Pick: Viktoria Plzeň II 66% · hit
L
Viktoria Plzeň II2–4České Budějovice30 Aug · home
Pick: Viktoria Plzeň II 41% · missed

Match report

Sparta Praha II and Viktoria Plzeň II finished 1–3 in 3. liga - CFL A on Wednesday 4 November 2026. It was 0–1 at half time. ScoreProb published its prediction on 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC, before kickoff: Sparta Praha II win 26.7%, draw 24.0%, Viktoria Plzeň II win 49.3%. All three picks hit.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.