Spennymoor Town vs Scarborough Athletic
Match result probability Model pick: Spennymoor Town win
Spennymoor Town winPick
45.1%
Draw
23.8%
Scarborough Athletic win
31.1%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes54.2%
No45.8%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.555.6%
Under 2.544.4%
How much we know
Spennymoor Town history85 matches
Scarborough Athletic history77 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Spennymoor Town
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 14:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre14 Nov · 15:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (45.1%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.
Why Spennymoor Town are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Scarborough Athletic are rated 25 Elo points higher
Elo 1,539 against 1,514. On rating alone Scarborough Athletic would be expected to take 54% of the points on offer.
-
Scoring rates are level
1.45 goals a game over 85 matches for Spennymoor Town, against 1.39 over 77 for Scarborough Athletic.
-
Scarborough Athletic concede fewer
Spennymoor Town concede 1.42 a game, Scarborough Athletic 1.17.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
53% of Spennymoor Town matches, against 48% for Scarborough Athletic. The model puts this match at 56% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Scarborough Athletic@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1514.3
ELO
1539.4
85
ELO · Matches
77
1514.3
Current Team ELO
1539.4
1539.4
Current Opponent ELO
1514.3
-25.04
Current ELO Difference
25.04
0.46
Expected score
0.54
85
History Matches
77
0.01
Residual Mean
0.02
51.17
Overperformance
51.68
-0.12
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.10
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.20
1.20
Goals for per game
1.80
2.00
Goals against per game
1.60
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.10
PPG
1.30
1.10
Goals for per game
1.50
1.70
Goals against per game
1.60
30.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.20
1.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.60
1.19
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.20
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.62
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.51
Overall performance9 signals 90
85
Matches
77
1.56
PPG
1.51
45.9%
Win rate
41.6%
18.8%
Draw rate
26.0%
35.3%
Loss rate
32.5%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
76.6%
52.9%
Over 2.5 rate
48.1%
31.8%
Over 3.5 rate
23.4%
2.14
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.78
Venue performance10 signals 100
46
Matches
40
1.54
PPG
1.30
43.5%
Win rate
35.0%
23.9%
Draw rate
25.0%
32.6%
Loss rate
40.0%
78.3%
Over 1.5 rate
90.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
55.0%
34.8%
Over 3.5 rate
27.5%
1.99
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.84
46
History Matches
40
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.45
Goals for per game
1.39
72.9%
Scoring rate
74.0%
44.7%
BTTS rate
49.4%
1.48
Goals for per game
1.48
78.3%
Scoring rate
80.0%
52.2%
BTTS rate
65.0%
85
History Matches
77
1.45
Goals Mean
1.39
1.23
Goals Std
1.23
72.9%
Scored 1+ rate
74.0%
45.9%
Scored 2+ rate
39.0%
18.8%
Scored 3+ rate
15.6%
1.48
Venue Goals Mean
1.48
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.42
Goals against per game
1.17
68.2%
Conceding rate
68.8%
1.41
Goals against per game
1.45
69.6%
Conceding rate
85.0%
85
History Matches
77
1.42
Conceded Mean
1.17
1.46
Conceded Std
1.06
36.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
33.8%
20.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
10.4%
1.41
Venue Conceded Mean
1.45
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
31.8%
Clean-sheet rate
31.2%
27.1%
Failed-to-score rate
26.0%
30.4%
Clean-sheet rate
15.0%
21.7%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
31.8%
Clean-sheet rate
31.2%
27.1%
Failed-to-score rate
26.0%
30.4%
Clean-sheet rate
15.0%
21.7%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
31.8%
Clean-sheet rate
31.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
85
History Matches
77
0.95
Result entropy
0.98
2.14
Goal Difference Std
1.78
5.39
Stability score
1.67
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
85
Eligible Matches
77
30
Lead Matches
23
80.0%
Lead Win Rate
82.6%
0.84
Lead Points Retention
0.87
22
Trailing Matches
23
27.3%
Non-loss rate
39.1%
18.2%
Trailing Win Rate
13.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
85
Halftime Coverage Matches
77
0.62
First Half Goals For Mean
0.55
0.53
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.47
0.82
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.84
0.89
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.70
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
84.04
Rest days
84.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
3
1.25
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
72
Normal Rest History Matches
66
1.57
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.52
8
Long Rest History Matches
7
1.50
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.00
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
8
Competition Season Count
7
7
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.54
Portability PPG Std
0.22
1.50
Portability PPG Range
0.55
47.92
Portability Score
69.23
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
85
Clean History Matches
77
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-25.04
PPG0.06
GF0.06
GA0.25
PPG0.24
PPG0.20
PPG-0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches8
Clean-sheet rate0.6%
Failed-to-score rate1.1%
History Matches6
Clean-sheet rate15.4%
Failed-to-score rate1.7%
History Matches8
Goals Mean0.06
Goals Std0.00
Scored 1+ rate-0.01
Scored 2+ rate6.9%
Scored 3+ rate3.2%
Venue Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.50
History Matches8
Conceded Mean0.25
Conceded Std0.40
Clean-sheet rate0.6%
Conceded 2+ rate2.7%
Conceded 3+ rate9.6%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.04
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.01
History Matches8
Result entropy-0.04
Goal Difference Std0.36
Stability score3.72
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.08
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.11
Eligible Matches8
Lead Matches7
Lead Win Rate-0.03
Lead Points Retention-0.03
Trailing Matches-1
Non-loss rate-0.12
Trailing Win Rate5.1%
Halftime Coverage Matches8
First Half Goals For Mean0.08
First Half Goals Against Mean0.06
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.02
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.19
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count3
Portability PPG Std0.32
Portability PPG Range0.95
Portability Score-21.31
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.75
Normal Rest History Matches6
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.05
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.50
Current Team ELO-25.04
Current Opponent ELO25.04
Current ELO Difference-50.08
Expected score-0.07
History Matches8
Residual Mean-0.01
Overperformance-0.51
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.02
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Spennymoor Town
L
King's Lynn Town2–0Spennymoor Town7 Nov · away
Pick: King's Lynn Town 42% · hit W
Spennymoor Town2–0Chorley31 Oct · home
Pick: Chorley 38% · missed L
Spennymoor Town0–1South Shields27 Oct · home
Pick: South Shields 52% · hit L
Darlington 18833–0Spennymoor Town24 Oct · away
Pick: Darlington 1883 47% · hit L
Harborough Town3–1Spennymoor Town17 Oct · away
Pick: Harborough Town 39% · hit Scarborough Athletic
D
Scarborough Athletic2–2Buxton7 Nov · home
Pick: Scarborough Athletic 42% · missed L
Morecambe2–0Scarborough Athletic31 Oct · away
Pick: Scarborough Athletic 46% · missed L
Scarborough Athletic1–2Bedford Town24 Oct · home
Pick: Scarborough Athletic 58% · missed W
Hebburn Town0–2Scarborough Athletic17 Oct · away
Pick: Hebburn Town 55% · missed L
King's Lynn Town3–1Scarborough Athletic31 Aug · away
Pick: Scarborough Athletic 42% · missed About this match
Spennymoor Town and Scarborough Athletic meet in FA Trophy on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Spennymoor Town win 45.1%, draw 23.8%, Scarborough Athletic win 31.1%. The pick is Spennymoor Town win. Over 2.5 goals: 55.6%. Both teams to score: 54.2%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.