UMECIT vs Plaza Amador
Match result probability Model pick: Plaza Amador win
UMECIT win
29.0%
Draw
22.8%
Plaza Amador winPick
48.2%
No match played
If the match is played on a new date, this page updates by itself.
Both teams to score
Yes47.4%
No52.6%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.553.6%
Under 2.546.4%
How much we know
UMECIT history45 matches
Plaza Amador history64 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Life of this match
Every step is time-stamped, from first prediction to settled result.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 16 h ahead2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
- Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
- Kickoff8 Nov · 01:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
Share this match
A picture made for this match: teams, our probabilities and the verified stamp. Works in chats and on social.
The card keeps the pre-match numbers. A miss is shared as plainly as a hit.
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (48.2%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.
Why Plaza Amador are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Plaza Amador are rated 175 Elo points higher
Elo 1,647 against 1,472. On rating alone Plaza Amador would be expected to take 73% of the points on offer.
-
Plaza Amador score far more
1.09 goals a game over 45 matches for UMECIT, against 2.06 over 64 for Plaza Amador.
-
Defences are close
UMECIT concede 1.31 a game, Plaza Amador 1.22.
-
Plaza Amador games more often go over 2.5 goals
40% of UMECIT matches, against 59% for Plaza Amador. The model puts this match at 54% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Plaza Amador@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1471.9
ELO
1647.0
45
ELO · Matches
64
1471.9
Current Team ELO
1647.0
1647.0
Current Opponent ELO
1471.9
-175.1
Current ELO Difference
175.1
0.27
Expected score
0.73
45
History Matches
64
-0.03
Residual Mean
0.12
48.05
Overperformance
58.83
-0.20
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.20
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
0.20
PPG
3.00
0.20
Goals for per game
3.40
1.40
Goals against per game
1.40
0.0%
Win rate
100.0%
10
Matches
10
0.40
PPG
2.30
0.50
Goals for per game
2.80
1.50
Goals against per game
1.50
0.0%
Win rate
70.0%
0.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.80
0.67
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.98
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
1.02
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.20
0.61
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
1.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.55
Overall performance9 signals 90
45
Matches
64
1.13
PPG
2.06
24.4%
Win rate
60.9%
40.0%
Draw rate
23.4%
35.6%
Loss rate
15.6%
71.1%
Over 1.5 rate
78.1%
40.0%
Over 2.5 rate
59.4%
22.2%
Over 3.5 rate
43.8%
1.25
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.61
Venue performance10 signals 100
23
Matches
30
1.48
PPG
2.13
39.1%
Win rate
63.3%
30.4%
Draw rate
23.3%
30.4%
Loss rate
13.3%
65.2%
Over 1.5 rate
73.3%
39.1%
Over 2.5 rate
53.3%
26.1%
Over 3.5 rate
46.7%
1.25
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.49
23
History Matches
30
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
1.09
Goals for per game
2.06
73.3%
Scoring rate
85.9%
55.6%
BTTS rate
54.7%
1.30
Goals for per game
2.03
78.3%
Scoring rate
86.7%
52.2%
BTTS rate
53.3%
1.15
Goals for per game
2.10
75.0%
Scoring rate
85.7%
60.0%
BTTS rate
52.4%
45
History Matches
64
1.09
Goals Mean
2.06
0.98
Goals Std
1.43
73.3%
Scored 1+ rate
85.9%
24.4%
Scored 2+ rate
64.1%
6.7%
Scored 3+ rate
34.4%
1.30
Venue Goals Mean
2.03
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
1.31
Goals against per game
1.22
75.6%
Conceding rate
67.2%
1.22
Goals against per game
1.23
69.6%
Conceding rate
63.3%
1.40
Goals against per game
1.19
75.0%
Conceding rate
66.7%
45
History Matches
64
1.31
Conceded Mean
1.22
0.96
Conceded Std
1.08
44.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
40.6%
11.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
10.9%
1.22
Venue Conceded Mean
1.23
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
24.4%
Clean-sheet rate
32.8%
26.7%
Failed-to-score rate
14.1%
30.4%
Clean-sheet rate
36.7%
21.7%
Failed-to-score rate
13.3%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
14.3%
24.4%
Clean-sheet rate
32.8%
26.7%
Failed-to-score rate
14.1%
30.4%
Clean-sheet rate
36.7%
21.7%
Failed-to-score rate
13.3%
24.4%
Clean-sheet rate
32.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
45
History Matches
64
0.98
Result entropy
0.85
1.25
Goal Difference Std
1.61
1.83
Stability score
15.17
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
45
Eligible Matches
64
5
Lead Matches
26
20.0%
Lead Win Rate
92.3%
0.33
Lead Points Retention
0.95
13
Trailing Matches
14
46.2%
Non-loss rate
64.3%
15.4%
Trailing Win Rate
21.4%
Goal timing5 signals 50
45
Halftime Coverage Matches
64
0.36
First Half Goals For Mean
0.83
0.53
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.55
0.73
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.23
0.78
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.67
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
76.07
Rest days
76.07
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
2
1.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
24
Normal Rest History Matches
39
0.88
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.13
18
Long Rest History Matches
22
1.33
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.82
Competition & season17 signals 170
20
Matches
21
1.10
PPG
2.00
20.0%
Win rate
57.1%
50.0%
Draw rate
28.6%
30.0%
Loss rate
14.3%
70.0%
Over 1.5 rate
76.2%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
61.9%
30.0%
Over 3.5 rate
38.1%
1.34
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.69
20
Current Competition Matches
21
1.10
Current Competition PPG
2.00
-0.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.90
3
Competition Season Count
4
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.58
Portability PPG Std
0.06
1.32
Portability PPG Range
0.14
46.43
Portability Score
89.09
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
45
Clean History Matches
64
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-175.1
PPG-0.93
GF-0.97
GA0.09
PPG-0.90
PPG-0.66
PPG-2.80
PPG-1.90
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-19
Clean-sheet rate-0.08
Failed-to-score rate12.6%
History Matches-7
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Failed-to-score rate8.4%
History Matches-19
Goals Mean-0.97
Goals Std-0.45
Scored 1+ rate-0.13
Scored 2+ rate-0.40
Scored 3+ rate-0.28
Venue Goals Mean-0.73
Recent 10 Goals Mean-2.30
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.31
History Matches-19
Conceded Mean0.09
Conceded Std-0.12
Clean-sheet rate-0.08
Conceded 2+ rate3.8%
Conceded 3+ rate0.2%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.02
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.18
History Matches-19
Result entropy0.13
Goal Difference Std-0.37
Stability score-13.35
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.12
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.46
Eligible Matches-19
Lead Matches-21
Lead Win Rate-0.72
Lead Points Retention-0.62
Trailing Matches-1
Non-loss rate-0.18
Trailing Win Rate-0.06
Halftime Coverage Matches-19
First Half Goals For Mean-0.47
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.01
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.50
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.11
Current Competition Matches-1
Current Competition PPG-0.90
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.15
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std0.52
Portability PPG Range1.18
Portability Score-42.66
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.50
Normal Rest History Matches-15
Normal Rest Points Per Match-1.25
Long Rest History Matches-4
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.48
Current Team ELO-175.1
Current Opponent ELO175.1
Current ELO Difference-350.3
Expected score-0.47
History Matches-19
Residual Mean-0.14
Overperformance-10.77
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.40
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
UMECIT
D
CD Arabe Unido1–1UMECIT24 Oct · away
Pick: CD Arabe Unido 43% · missed D
UMECIT1–1Veraguas1 Sep · home
Pick: UMECIT 40% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
Plaza Amador
W
Plaza Amador2–1Deportivo Universitario4 Oct · home
Pick: Plaza Amador 72% · hit L
San Francisco FC4–1Plaza Amador30 Aug · away
Pick: Plaza Amador 45% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
UMECIT and Plaza Amador were due to play in Liga Panameña de Fútbol on Sunday 8 November 2026, but the match was not played.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.