Tauro FC vs Alianza FC
Match result probability Model pick: Alianza FC win
Tauro FC win
31.0%
Draw
28.7%
Alianza FC winPick
40.4%
No match played
If the match is played on a new date, this page updates by itself.
Both teams to score
Yes54.8%
No45.2%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.551.8%
Under 2.548.2%
How much we know
Tauro FC history45 matches
Alianza FC history52 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Life of this match
Every step is time-stamped, from first prediction to settled result.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 16 h ahead2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
- Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
- Kickoff8 Nov · 01:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
Share this match
A picture made for this match: teams, our probabilities and the verified stamp. Works in chats and on social.
The card keeps the pre-match numbers. A miss is shared as plainly as a hit.
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (40.4%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.
Why Alianza FC are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Alianza FC are rated 107 Elo points higher
Elo 1,555 against 1,448. On rating alone Alianza FC would be expected to take 65% of the points on offer.
-
Alianza FC score more
1.20 goals a game over 45 matches for Tauro FC, against 1.40 over 52 for Alianza FC.
-
Defences are close
Tauro FC concede 1.38 a game, Alianza FC 1.29.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
44% of Tauro FC matches, against 50% for Alianza FC. The model puts this match at 52% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Alianza FC@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1447.9
ELO
1554.7
45
ELO · Matches
52
1447.9
Current Team ELO
1554.7
1554.7
Current Opponent ELO
1447.9
-106.7
Current ELO Difference
106.7
0.35
Expected score
0.65
45
History Matches
52
-0.06
Residual Mean
0.06
45.98
Overperformance
54.29
-0.15
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.01
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
0.40
PPG
1.40
0.60
Goals for per game
1.20
1.40
Goals against per game
1.40
0.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
0.60
PPG
1.30
1.00
Goals for per game
1.10
1.60
Goals against per game
1.20
10.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.10
1.26
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.70
1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
1.43
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.40
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.80
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.22
Overall performance9 signals 90
45
Matches
52
1.00
PPG
1.52
22.2%
Win rate
38.5%
33.3%
Draw rate
36.5%
44.4%
Loss rate
25.0%
68.9%
Over 1.5 rate
73.1%
44.4%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
28.8%
1.54
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.07
Venue performance10 signals 100
22
Matches
24
1.23
PPG
1.54
27.3%
Win rate
37.5%
40.9%
Draw rate
41.7%
31.8%
Loss rate
20.8%
63.6%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
36.4%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
27.3%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
1.56
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.97
22
History Matches
24
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
1.20
Goals for per game
1.40
68.9%
Scoring rate
78.8%
55.6%
BTTS rate
63.5%
1.18
Goals for per game
1.33
68.2%
Scoring rate
79.2%
50.0%
BTTS rate
66.7%
1.20
Goals for per game
1.50
60.0%
Scoring rate
77.3%
45.0%
BTTS rate
63.6%
45
History Matches
52
1.20
Goals Mean
1.40
1.13
Goals Std
1.06
68.9%
Scored 1+ rate
78.8%
33.3%
Scored 2+ rate
44.2%
11.1%
Scored 3+ rate
13.5%
1.18
Venue Goals Mean
1.33
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
1.38
Goals against per game
1.29
75.6%
Conceding rate
75.0%
0.95
Goals against per game
1.21
63.6%
Conceding rate
79.2%
1.25
Goals against per game
1.23
70.0%
Conceding rate
68.2%
45
History Matches
52
1.38
Conceded Mean
1.29
1.20
Conceded Std
1.01
35.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
40.4%
20.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
11.5%
0.95
Venue Conceded Mean
1.21
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
24.4%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
31.1%
Failed-to-score rate
21.2%
36.4%
Clean-sheet rate
20.8%
31.8%
Failed-to-score rate
20.8%
30.0%
Clean-sheet rate
31.8%
40.0%
Failed-to-score rate
22.7%
24.4%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
31.1%
Failed-to-score rate
21.2%
36.4%
Clean-sheet rate
20.8%
31.8%
Failed-to-score rate
20.8%
24.4%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
45
History Matches
52
0.97
Result entropy
0.98
1.54
Goal Difference Std
1.07
3.44
Stability score
1.52
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
45
Eligible Matches
52
9
Lead Matches
16
44.4%
Lead Win Rate
68.8%
0.52
Lead Points Retention
0.79
15
Trailing Matches
10
33.3%
Non-loss rate
30.0%
6.7%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
45
Halftime Coverage Matches
52
0.42
First Half Goals For Mean
0.69
0.58
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.50
0.78
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.71
0.80
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.79
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
75.00
Rest days
75.00
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
2
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.50
23
Normal Rest History Matches
25
1.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.68
21
Long Rest History Matches
24
1.05
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.38
Competition & season17 signals 170
20
Matches
22
1.10
PPG
1.55
25.0%
Win rate
31.8%
35.0%
Draw rate
59.1%
40.0%
Loss rate
9.1%
65.0%
Over 1.5 rate
68.2%
35.0%
Over 2.5 rate
45.5%
35.0%
Over 3.5 rate
36.4%
1.72
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.86
20
Current Competition Matches
22
1.10
Current Competition PPG
1.55
-0.05
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.27
2
Competition Season Count
3
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.09
Portability PPG Std
0.26
0.18
Portability PPG Range
0.56
84.75
Portability Score
65.83
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
45
Clean History Matches
52
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-106.7
PPG-0.52
GF-0.20
GA0.09
PPG-0.45
PPG-0.31
PPG-1.00
PPG-0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-7
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Failed-to-score rate10.0%
History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate15.5%
Failed-to-score rate11.0%
History Matches-7
Goals Mean-0.20
Goals Std0.07
Scored 1+ rate-0.10
Scored 2+ rate-0.11
Scored 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Goals Mean-0.15
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.56
History Matches-7
Conceded Mean0.09
Conceded Std0.19
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Conceded 2+ rate-0.05
Conceded 3+ rate8.5%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.25
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.03
History Matches-7
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std0.47
Stability score1.92
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.17
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.58
Eligible Matches-7
Lead Matches-7
Lead Win Rate-0.24
Lead Points Retention-0.27
Trailing Matches5
Non-loss rate3.3%
Trailing Win Rate6.7%
Halftime Coverage Matches-7
First Half Goals For Mean-0.27
First Half Goals Against Mean0.08
Second Half Goals For Mean0.07
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.01
Current Competition Matches-2
Current Competition PPG-0.45
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.32
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.17
Portability PPG Range-0.38
Portability Score18.92
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.68
Long Rest History Matches-3
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.33
Current Team ELO-106.7
Current Opponent ELO106.7
Current ELO Difference-213.5
Expected score-0.30
History Matches-7
Residual Mean-0.12
Overperformance-8.30
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.14
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Tauro FC
W
Sporting San Miguelito0–2Tauro FC20 Oct · away
Pick: Sporting San Miguelito 52% · missed W
Tauro FC2–1Independiente de La Chorrera29 Aug · home
Pick: Tauro FC 37% · hit L
Alianza FC2–0Tauro FC25 Aug · away
Pick: Alianza FC 49% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
Alianza FC
L
Alianza FC1–3Sporting San Miguelito25 Oct · home
Pick: Alianza FC 42% · missed L
Herrera1–0Alianza FC4 Oct · away
Pick: Alianza FC 58% · missed D
Union Cocle2–2Alianza FC30 Aug · away
Pick: Union Cocle 39% · missed W
Alianza FC2–0Tauro FC25 Aug · home
Pick: Alianza FC 49% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Tauro FC and Alianza FC were due to play in Liga Panameña de Fútbol on Sunday 8 November 2026, but the match was not played.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.