St. Pölten W vs LASK W
Match result probability Model pick: St. Pölten W win
St. Pölten W winPick
79.5%
Draw
13.3%
LASK W win
7.2%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes47.2%
No52.8%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.566.4%
Under 2.533.6%
How much we know
St. Pölten W history48 matches
LASK W history36 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours St. Pölten W
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours No
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 12:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre14 Nov · 13:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 70–79% band (79.5%). Picks in that band won 76.5% of the time, and the model said 73.9% on average, over 646 matches.
Why St. Pölten W are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
St. Pölten W are rated 208 Elo points higher
Elo 1,676 against 1,468. On rating alone St. Pölten W would be expected to take 77% of the points on offer.
-
St. Pölten W score far more
2.50 goals a game over 48 matches for St. Pölten W, against 1.22 over 36 for LASK W.
-
St. Pölten W concede fewer
St. Pölten W concede 1.06 a game, LASK W 1.53.
-
St. Pölten W games more often go over 2.5 goals
69% of St. Pölten W matches, against 53% for LASK W. The model puts this match at 66% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
LASK W@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1676.2
ELO
1468.1
48
ELO · Matches
36
1676.2
Current Team ELO
1468.1
1468.1
Current Opponent ELO
1676.2
208.1
Current ELO Difference
-208.1
0.77
Expected score
0.23
48
History Matches
36
0.18
Residual Mean
-0.05
63.03
Overperformance
46.86
0.28
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.09
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
2.60
PPG
1.20
2.00
Goals for per game
1.00
0.60
Goals against per game
1.60
80.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
2.60
PPG
1.00
2.20
Goals for per game
1.00
0.60
Goals against per game
1.70
80.0%
Win rate
30.0%
2.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
1.17
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.10
0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.70
1.02
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.19
0.46
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.11
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.55
Overall performance9 signals 90
48
Matches
36
2.27
PPG
1.22
70.8%
Win rate
36.1%
14.6%
Draw rate
13.9%
14.6%
Loss rate
50.0%
91.7%
Over 1.5 rate
72.2%
68.8%
Over 2.5 rate
52.8%
41.7%
Over 3.5 rate
27.8%
2.84
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.37
Venue performance10 signals 100
25
Matches
19
2.28
PPG
1.26
72.0%
Win rate
36.8%
12.0%
Draw rate
15.8%
16.0%
Loss rate
47.4%
88.0%
Over 1.5 rate
73.7%
68.0%
Over 2.5 rate
57.9%
44.0%
Over 3.5 rate
31.6%
3.02
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.82
25
History Matches
19
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
2.50
Goals for per game
1.22
85.4%
Scoring rate
61.1%
39.6%
BTTS rate
36.1%
2.48
Goals for per game
1.11
76.0%
Scoring rate
63.2%
28.0%
BTTS rate
36.8%
2.00
Goals for per game
0.75
100.0%
Scoring rate
25.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
25.0%
48
History Matches
36
2.50
Goals Mean
1.22
1.81
Goals Std
1.75
85.4%
Scored 1+ rate
61.1%
70.8%
Scored 2+ rate
33.3%
47.9%
Scored 3+ rate
8.3%
2.48
Venue Goals Mean
1.11
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
1.06
Goals against per game
1.53
50.0%
Conceding rate
66.7%
1.12
Goals against per game
1.58
44.0%
Conceding rate
68.4%
0.00
Goals against per game
2.00
0.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
48
History Matches
36
1.06
Conceded Mean
1.53
1.63
Conceded Std
1.32
20.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
52.8%
12.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
25.0%
1.12
Venue Conceded Mean
1.58
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
14.6%
Failed-to-score rate
38.9%
56.0%
Clean-sheet rate
31.6%
24.0%
Failed-to-score rate
36.8%
100.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
75.0%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
14.6%
Failed-to-score rate
38.9%
56.0%
Clean-sheet rate
31.6%
24.0%
Failed-to-score rate
36.8%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
48
History Matches
36
0.73
Result entropy
0.90
2.84
Goal Difference Std
2.37
26.65
Stability score
10.02
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
48
Eligible Matches
36
28
Lead Matches
9
96.4%
Lead Win Rate
88.9%
0.98
Lead Points Retention
0.89
8
Trailing Matches
13
37.5%
Non-loss rate
15.4%
12.5%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
48
Halftime Coverage Matches
36
1.19
First Half Goals For Mean
0.36
0.52
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.58
1.31
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.86
0.54
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.94
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
84.10
Rest days
84.10
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
0
2.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
20
Normal Rest History Matches
15
2.20
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.07
23
Long Rest History Matches
20
2.26
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.40
Competition & season17 signals 170
3
Matches
4
3.00
PPG
0.75
100.0%
Win rate
25.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
75.0%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
25.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
0.82
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.30
3
Current Competition Matches
4
3.00
Current Competition PPG
0.75
2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.25
5
Competition Season Count
3
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.82
Portability PPG Std
0.27
2.13
Portability PPG Range
0.65
37.99
Portability Score
64.52
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
48
Clean History Matches
36
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO208.1
PPG1.05
GF1.28
GA-0.47
PPG2.25
PPG1.02
PPG1.40
PPG1.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches12
Clean-sheet rate16.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.24
History Matches6
Clean-sheet rate24.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.13
History Matches12
Goals Mean1.28
Goals Std0.06
Scored 1+ rate24.3%
Scored 2+ rate37.5%
Scored 3+ rate39.6%
Venue Goals Mean1.37
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.20
Recent 10 Goals Std0.07
History Matches12
Conceded Mean-0.47
Conceded Std0.30
Clean-sheet rate16.7%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.32
Conceded 3+ rate-0.13
Venue Conceded Mean-0.46
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.17
History Matches12
Result entropy-0.17
Goal Difference Std0.47
Stability score16.64
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.36
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.44
Eligible Matches12
Lead Matches19
Lead Win Rate7.5%
Lead Points Retention0.09
Trailing Matches-5
Non-loss rate22.1%
Trailing Win Rate12.5%
Halftime Coverage Matches12
First Half Goals For Mean0.83
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.06
Second Half Goals For Mean0.45
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.40
Current Competition Matches-1
Current Competition PPG2.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean3.25
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.54
Portability PPG Range1.48
Portability Score-26.54
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches4
Normal Rest History Matches5
Normal Rest Points Per Match1.13
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match0.86
Current Team ELO208.1
Current Opponent ELO-208.1
Current ELO Difference416.1
Expected score0.54
History Matches12
Residual Mean0.23
Overperformance16.17
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.38
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
St. Pölten W
W
SK Rapid W0–3St. Pölten W4 Nov · away
Pick: St. Pölten W 69% · hit W
Rheindorf Altach W0–4St. Pölten W1 Nov · away
Pick: St. Pölten W 71% · hit W
St. Pölten W4–0SK Rapid W24 Oct · home
Pick: St. Pölten W 78% · hit L
St. Pölten W0–3Austria Wien W18 Oct · home
Pick: Austria Wien W 45% · hit D
St. Pölten W2–2Sturm Graz W4 Oct · home
Pick: St. Pölten W 57% · missed LASK W
L
LASK W0–3Austria Wien W1 Nov · home
Pick: Austria Wien W 74% · hit L
Sturm Graz W5–0LASK W23 Oct · away
Pick: Sturm Graz W 70% · hit W
LASK W3–0Kleinmünchen / BW Linz W17 Oct · home
Pick: LASK W 50% · hit D
Rheindorf Altach W2–2LASK W29 Aug · away
Pick: LASK W 41% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
St. Pölten W and LASK W meet in Frauenliga on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. The match is played at NV Arena. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: St. Pölten W win 79.5%, draw 13.3%, LASK W win 7.2%. The pick is St. Pölten W win. Over 2.5 goals: 66.4%. Both teams to score: 47.2%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.