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League One England Round 15 2026

Stevenage vs Mansfield Town

Stevenage Home · Elo 1,527
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Mansfield Town Away · Elo 1,509
Lamex Stadium, Stevenage Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Stevenage win
Stevenage winPick
35.9%
Draw
30.4%
Mansfield Town win
33.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes52.0%
No48.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.545.3%
Under 2.554.7%

How much we know

Stevenage history86 matches
Mansfield Town history86 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (35.9%). Picks in that band won 39.9% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,949 matches.

Why Stevenage are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,527 against 1,509. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Mansfield Town score more

    1.08 goals a game over 86 matches for Stevenage, against 1.38 over 86 for Mansfield Town.

  • Stevenage concede fewer

    Stevenage concede 1.19 a game, Mansfield Town 1.48.

  • Mansfield Town games more often go over 2.5 goals

    41% of Stevenage matches, against 57% for Mansfield Town. The model puts this match at 45% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 26 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Stevenage
Mansfield Town@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1527.1
ELO
1509.2
86
ELO · Matches
86
1527.1
Current Team ELO
1509.2
1509.2
Current Opponent ELO
1527.1
17.91
Current ELO Difference
-17.91
0.53
Expected score
0.47
86
History Matches
86
0.02
Residual Mean
0.00
51.48
Overperformance
50.36
-0.11
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.08
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
0.60
1.00
Goals for per game
1.00
1.40
Goals against per game
2.60
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.10
PPG
1.30
0.60
Goals for per game
2.10
1.50
Goals against per game
2.20
30.0%
Win rate
40.0%
0.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.10
0.66
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.70
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.20
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.54
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.87
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.26
Overall performance9 signals
90
86
Matches
86
1.41
PPG
1.23
39.5%
Win rate
31.4%
22.1%
Draw rate
29.1%
38.4%
Loss rate
39.5%
58.1%
Over 1.5 rate
81.4%
40.7%
Over 2.5 rate
57.0%
20.9%
Over 3.5 rate
26.7%
1.51
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.65
Venue performance10 signals
100
44
Matches
44
1.66
PPG
1.23
47.7%
Win rate
29.5%
22.7%
Draw rate
34.1%
29.5%
Loss rate
36.4%
56.8%
Over 1.5 rate
84.1%
38.6%
Over 2.5 rate
47.7%
15.9%
Over 3.5 rate
20.5%
1.45
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.56
44
History Matches
44
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.08
Goals for per game
1.38
70.9%
Scoring rate
74.4%
48.8%
BTTS rate
59.3%
1.18
Goals for per game
1.30
77.3%
Scoring rate
75.0%
47.7%
BTTS rate
59.1%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.50
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
86
History Matches
86
1.08
Goals Mean
1.38
1.06
Goals Std
1.22
70.9%
Scored 1+ rate
74.4%
22.1%
Scored 2+ rate
37.2%
9.3%
Scored 3+ rate
17.4%
1.18
Venue Goals Mean
1.30
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.19
Goals against per game
1.48
70.9%
Conceding rate
75.6%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.41
65.9%
Conceding rate
75.0%
1.50
Goals against per game
1.50
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
86
History Matches
86
1.19
Conceded Mean
1.48
1.11
Conceded Std
1.19
30.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
46.5%
12.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
18.6%
1.00
Venue Conceded Mean
1.41
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
29.1%
Clean-sheet rate
24.4%
29.1%
Failed-to-score rate
25.6%
34.1%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
22.7%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
29.1%
Clean-sheet rate
24.4%
29.1%
Failed-to-score rate
25.6%
34.1%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
22.7%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
29.1%
Clean-sheet rate
24.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
86
History Matches
86
0.97
Result entropy
0.99
1.51
Goal Difference Std
1.65
2.79
Stability score
0.81
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
86
Eligible Matches
86
22
Lead Matches
26
86.4%
Lead Win Rate
69.2%
0.91
Lead Points Retention
0.77
19
Trailing Matches
27
15.8%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
5.3%
Trailing Win Rate
11.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
86
Halftime Coverage Matches
86
0.47
First Half Goals For Mean
0.59
0.45
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.62
0.62
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.79
0.73
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.86
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
80.84
Rest days
84.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
5
Short Rest History Matches
7
2.20
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.43
63
Normal Rest History Matches
65
1.43
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.18
17
Long Rest History Matches
13
1.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.46
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
0.50
PPG
1.50
0.0%
Win rate
50.0%
50.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
0.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.00
2
Current Competition Matches
2
0.50
Current Competition PPG
1.50
-0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
10
Competition Season Count
10
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.41
Portability PPG Std
0.56
1.15
Portability PPG Range
1.67
54.72
Portability Score
47.00
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
86
Clean History Matches
86
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO17.91
PPG0.17
GF-0.30
GA-0.29
PPG-1.00
PPG0.43
PPG0.80
PPG-0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate4.7%
Failed-to-score rate3.5%
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate9.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.02
History Matches0
Goals Mean-0.30
Goals Std-0.16
Scored 1+ rate-0.03
Scored 2+ rate-0.15
Scored 3+ rate-0.08
Venue Goals Mean-0.11
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.50
Recent 10 Goals Std-1.04
History Matches0
Conceded Mean-0.29
Conceded Std-0.08
Clean-sheet rate4.7%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.16
Conceded 3+ rate-0.06
Venue Conceded Mean-0.41
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.04
History Matches0
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std-0.14
Stability score1.98
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.08
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.39
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches-4
Lead Win Rate17.1%
Lead Points Retention0.14
Trailing Matches-8
Non-loss rate-0.18
Trailing Win Rate-0.06
Halftime Coverage Matches0
First Half Goals For Mean-0.13
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.16
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.17
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.13
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.50
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.15
Portability PPG Range-0.51
Portability Score7.72
Rest days-3.20
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Short Rest Points Per Match0.77
Normal Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.24
Long Rest History Matches4
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.46
Current Team ELO17.91
Current Opponent ELO-17.91
Current ELO Difference35.81
Expected score0.05
History Matches0
Residual Mean0.01
Overperformance1.13
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.03

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Stevenage

W
Oxford United0–1Stevenage7 Nov · away
Pick: Stevenage 40% · hit
D
Leicester2–2Stevenage31 Oct · away
Pick: Leicester 40% · missed
L
Stevenage0–1Milton Keynes Dons24 Oct · home
Pick: Milton Keynes Dons 37% · hit
W
Stevenage3–0Plymouth20 Oct · home
Pick: Stevenage 45% · hit
L
Bradford2–0Stevenage17 Oct · away
Pick: Bradford 56% · hit

Mansfield Town

W
Mansfield Town3–0Macclesfield7 Nov · home
Pick: Macclesfield 41% · missed
L
Mansfield Town0–2Notts County31 Oct · home
Pick: Mansfield Town 41% · missed
W
Blackpool1–4Mansfield Town24 Oct · away
Pick: Blackpool 47% · missed
W
AFC Wimbledon0–3Mansfield Town20 Oct · away
Pick: Mansfield Town 38% · hit
D
Mansfield Town1–1Oxford United15 Oct · home
Pick: Mansfield Town 43% · missed

About this match

Stevenage and Mansfield Town meet in League One on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. The match is played at Lamex Stadium, Stevenage. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Stevenage win 35.9%, draw 30.4%, Mansfield Town win 33.7%. The pick is Stevenage win. Over 2.5 goals: 45.3%. Both teams to score: 52.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.