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League One England Round 15 2026

Stockport County vs Reading

Stockport County Home · Elo 1,613
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Reading Away · Elo 1,564
Edgeley Park, Stockport Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Stockport County win
Stockport County winPick
50.0%
Draw
27.2%
Reading win
22.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes56.0%
No44.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.551.1%
Under 2.548.9%

How much we know

Stockport County history92 matches
Reading history87 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (50.0%). Picks in that band won 55.6% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 4,146 matches.

Why Stockport County are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Stockport County are rated 49 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,613 against 1,564. On rating alone Stockport County would be expected to take 57% of the points on offer.

  • Stockport County score more

    1.62 goals a game over 92 matches for Stockport County, against 1.43 over 87 for Reading.

  • Defences are close

    Stockport County concede 1.14 a game, Reading 1.18.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    53% of Stockport County matches, against 47% for Reading. The model puts this match at 51% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 26 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Stockport County
Reading@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1612.6
ELO
1564.0
92
ELO · Matches
87
1612.6
Current Team ELO
1564.0
1564.0
Current Opponent ELO
1612.6
48.61
Current ELO Difference
-48.61
0.57
Expected score
0.43
92
History Matches
87
0.06
Residual Mean
0.04
54.69
Overperformance
52.89
0.14
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.10
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
1.20
2.40
Goals for per game
1.60
1.40
Goals against per game
1.20
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
2.20
PPG
1.80
1.90
Goals for per game
1.80
1.10
Goals against per game
0.70
70.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.80
1.51
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.33
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.70
1.37
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.19
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.66
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.70
Overall performance9 signals
90
92
Matches
87
1.84
PPG
1.52
53.3%
Win rate
40.2%
23.9%
Draw rate
31.0%
22.8%
Loss rate
28.7%
77.2%
Over 1.5 rate
77.0%
53.3%
Over 2.5 rate
47.1%
27.2%
Over 3.5 rate
26.4%
1.49
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.50
Venue performance10 signals
100
46
Matches
44
2.09
PPG
1.41
63.0%
Win rate
36.4%
19.6%
Draw rate
31.8%
17.4%
Loss rate
31.8%
78.3%
Over 1.5 rate
79.5%
58.7%
Over 2.5 rate
45.5%
23.9%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
1.32
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.60
46
History Matches
44
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.62
Goals for per game
1.43
84.8%
Scoring rate
78.2%
59.8%
BTTS rate
57.5%
1.83
Goals for per game
1.43
87.0%
Scoring rate
72.7%
63.0%
BTTS rate
56.8%
2.00
Goals for per game
1.50
100.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
92
History Matches
87
1.62
Goals Mean
1.43
1.19
Goals Std
1.10
84.8%
Scored 1+ rate
78.2%
46.7%
Scored 2+ rate
43.7%
21.7%
Scored 3+ rate
16.1%
1.83
Venue Goals Mean
1.43
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.14
Goals against per game
1.18
70.7%
Conceding rate
72.4%
1.07
Goals against per game
1.16
69.6%
Conceding rate
75.0%
1.50
Goals against per game
2.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
92
History Matches
87
1.14
Conceded Mean
1.18
1.03
Conceded Std
1.03
28.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
31.0%
13.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
11.5%
1.07
Venue Conceded Mean
1.16
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
29.3%
Clean-sheet rate
27.6%
15.2%
Failed-to-score rate
21.8%
30.4%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
13.0%
Failed-to-score rate
27.3%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
29.3%
Clean-sheet rate
27.6%
15.2%
Failed-to-score rate
21.8%
30.4%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
13.0%
Failed-to-score rate
27.3%
29.3%
Clean-sheet rate
27.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
92
History Matches
87
0.92
Result entropy
0.99
1.49
Goal Difference Std
1.50
7.62
Stability score
0.99
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
92
Eligible Matches
87
28
Lead Matches
28
78.6%
Lead Win Rate
60.7%
0.85
Lead Points Retention
0.71
23
Trailing Matches
13
47.8%
Non-loss rate
38.5%
21.7%
Trailing Win Rate
7.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
92
Halftime Coverage Matches
87
0.64
First Half Goals For Mean
0.57
0.52
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.34
0.98
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.85
0.62
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.84
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
84.04
Rest days
80.84
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
7
Short Rest History Matches
7
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.29
70
Normal Rest History Matches
65
1.97
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.49
14
Long Rest History Matches
14
1.50
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.36
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
1.50
PPG
0.50
50.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
50.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
1.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.50
2
Current Competition Matches
2
1.50
Current Competition PPG
0.50
0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.50
10
Competition Season Count
10
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.57
Portability PPG Std
0.68
1.67
Portability PPG Range
2.17
46.77
Portability Score
42.34
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
92
Clean History Matches
87
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO48.61
PPG0.32
GF0.19
GA-0.04
PPG1.00
PPG0.68
PPG0.80
PPG0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate1.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.07
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate5.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.14
History Matches5
Goals Mean0.19
Goals Std0.09
Scored 1+ rate6.6%
Scored 2+ rate3.1%
Scored 3+ rate5.6%
Venue Goals Mean0.39
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.19
History Matches5
Conceded Mean-0.04
Conceded Std-0.01
Clean-sheet rate1.8%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.03
Conceded 3+ rate1.5%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.09
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.19
History Matches5
Result entropy-0.07
Goal Difference Std-0.01
Stability score6.64
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.21
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.04
Eligible Matches5
Lead Matches0
Lead Win Rate17.9%
Lead Points Retention0.13
Trailing Matches10
Non-loss rate9.4%
Trailing Win Rate14.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches5
First Half Goals For Mean0.07
First Half Goals Against Mean0.18
Second Half Goals For Mean0.13
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.22
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.00
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.11
Portability PPG Range-0.50
Portability Score4.43
Rest days3.20
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.29
Normal Rest History Matches5
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.48
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match0.14
Current Team ELO48.61
Current Opponent ELO-48.61
Current ELO Difference97.21
Expected score0.14
History Matches5
Residual Mean0.02
Overperformance1.80
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.05

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Stockport County

W
Stockport County2–1AFC Wimbledon31 Oct · home
Pick: Stockport County 58% · hit
L
Oxford United1–0Stockport County27 Oct · away
Pick: Oxford United 37% · hit
D
Notts County1–1Stockport County24 Oct · away
Pick: Stockport County 40% · missed
W
Doncaster0–2Stockport County20 Oct · away
Pick: Doncaster 38% · missed
W
Stockport County1–0Bromley17 Oct · home
Pick: Stockport County 46% · hit

Reading

W
Peterborough0–5Reading7 Nov · away
Pick: Peterborough 41% · missed
L
Oxford United2–0Reading4 Nov · away
Pick: Oxford United 41% · hit
D
Plymouth0–0Reading31 Oct · away
Pick: Plymouth 40% · missed
W
Reading2–1Barnsley24 Oct · home
Pick: Reading 46% · hit
W
Reading1–0Leyton Orient21 Oct · home
Pick: Reading 39% · hit

About this match

Stockport County and Reading meet in League One on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. The match is played at Edgeley Park, Stockport. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Stockport County win 50.0%, draw 27.2%, Reading win 22.8%. The pick is Stockport County win. Over 2.5 goals: 51.1%. Both teams to score: 56.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.