ScoreProb
UEFA Europa League World Round 4 2026

Sturm Graz vs Celje

Sturm Graz Home · Elo 1,635
Thu 5 Nov
UTC
Not started
Celje Away · Elo 1,645
Stadion Graz-Liebenau Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 30 Oct, 08:38 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Celje win
Sturm Graz win
32.3%
Draw
25.1%
Celje winPick
42.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes55.5%
No44.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.558.1%
Under 2.541.9%

How much we know

Sturm Graz history82 matches
Celje history97 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 11 h ahead
    30 Oct · 08:38 UTC
  2. Re-published 13 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 19:23 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    5 Nov · 20:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (42.6%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Celje are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,635 against 1,645. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Celje score more

    1.63 goals a game over 82 matches for Sturm Graz, against 2.20 over 97 for Celje.

  • Defences are close

    Sturm Graz concede 1.23 a game, Celje 1.19.

  • Celje games more often go over 2.5 goals

    50% of Sturm Graz matches, against 64% for Celje. The model puts this match at 58% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Sturm Graz
Celje
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1634.6
ELO
1645.0
82
ELO · Matches
97
1634.6
Current Team ELO
1645.0
1645.0
Current Opponent ELO
1634.6
-10.35
Current ELO Difference
10.35
0.49
Expected score
0.51
82
History Matches
97
0.08
Residual Mean
0.07
56.70
Overperformance
56.18
0.17
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.03
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
2.00
0.80
Goals for per game
1.60
0.80
Goals against per game
0.80
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
2.00
PPG
1.50
1.50
Goals for per game
1.60
0.50
Goals against per game
1.20
60.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.80
0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
0.67
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.87
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.73
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
0.92
Overall performance9 signals
90
82
Matches
97
1.70
PPG
1.90
48.8%
Win rate
55.7%
23.2%
Draw rate
22.7%
28.0%
Loss rate
21.6%
80.5%
Over 1.5 rate
84.5%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
63.9%
29.3%
Over 3.5 rate
45.4%
1.83
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.00
Venue performance10 signals
100
42
Matches
47
1.76
PPG
1.96
50.0%
Win rate
59.6%
26.2%
Draw rate
17.0%
23.8%
Loss rate
23.4%
69.0%
Over 1.5 rate
87.2%
45.2%
Over 2.5 rate
66.0%
31.0%
Over 3.5 rate
46.8%
1.68
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.07
42
History Matches
47
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.63
Goals for per game
2.20
84.1%
Scoring rate
89.7%
53.7%
BTTS rate
59.8%
1.62
Goals for per game
2.30
83.3%
Scoring rate
89.4%
54.8%
BTTS rate
51.1%
82
History Matches
97
1.63
Goals Mean
2.20
1.26
Goals Std
1.57
84.1%
Scored 1+ rate
89.7%
45.1%
Scored 2+ rate
61.9%
18.3%
Scored 3+ rate
37.1%
1.62
Venue Goals Mean
2.30
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.23
Goals against per game
1.19
67.1%
Conceding rate
66.0%
1.14
Goals against per game
1.11
66.7%
Conceding rate
59.6%
82
History Matches
97
1.23
Conceded Mean
1.19
1.23
Conceded Std
1.12
34.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
35.1%
14.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
14.4%
1.14
Venue Conceded Mean
1.11
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
32.9%
Clean-sheet rate
34.0%
15.9%
Failed-to-score rate
10.3%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
40.4%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
10.6%
32.9%
Clean-sheet rate
34.0%
15.9%
Failed-to-score rate
10.3%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
40.4%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
10.6%
32.9%
Clean-sheet rate
34.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
82
History Matches
97
0.95
Result entropy
0.90
1.83
Goal Difference Std
2.00
4.83
Stability score
9.54
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
81
Eligible Matches
95
30
Lead Matches
43
76.7%
Lead Win Rate
90.7%
0.80
Lead Points Retention
0.92
18
Trailing Matches
26
33.3%
Non-loss rate
50.0%
5.6%
Trailing Win Rate
26.9%
Goal timing5 signals
50
81
Halftime Coverage Matches
95
0.73
First Half Goals For Mean
1.05
0.56
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.65
0.91
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.14
0.69
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.55
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
75.10
Rest days
78.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
14
Short Rest History Matches
21
1.93
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.90
48
Normal Rest History Matches
61
1.69
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.92
19
Long Rest History Matches
14
1.47
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.93
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
12
Competition Season Count
10
7
Eligible Competition Season Count
9
0.36
Portability PPG Std
0.57
1.13
Portability PPG Range
2.00
57.83
Portability Score
46.84
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
82
Clean History Matches
97
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-10.35
PPG-0.20
GF-0.56
GA0.05
PPG-0.20
PPG-0.60
PPG0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-15
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Failed-to-score rate5.5%
History Matches-5
Clean-sheet rate-0.07
Failed-to-score rate6.0%
History Matches-15
Goals Mean-0.56
Goals Std-0.31
Scored 1+ rate-0.06
Scored 2+ rate-0.17
Scored 3+ rate-0.19
Venue Goals Mean-0.68
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.40
History Matches-15
Conceded Mean0.05
Conceded Std0.12
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Conceded 2+ rate-0.01
Conceded 3+ rate0.2%
Venue Conceded Mean0.04
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.20
History Matches-15
Result entropy0.05
Goal Difference Std-0.16
Stability score-4.71
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.82
Eligible Matches-14
Lead Matches-13
Lead Win Rate-0.14
Lead Points Retention-0.12
Trailing Matches-8
Non-loss rate-0.17
Trailing Win Rate-0.21
Halftime Coverage Matches-14
First Half Goals For Mean-0.32
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.10
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.22
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.14
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Portability PPG Std-0.20
Portability PPG Range-0.88
Portability Score10.99
Rest days-2.94
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-7
Short Rest Points Per Match0.02
Normal Rest History Matches-13
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.23
Long Rest History Matches5
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.45
Current Team ELO-10.35
Current Opponent ELO10.35
Current ELO Difference-20.71
Expected score-0.03
History Matches-15
Residual Mean0.01
Overperformance0.52
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.13

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Sturm Graz

D
Wolfsberger AC1–1Sturm Graz1 Nov · away
Pick: Wolfsberger AC 40% · missed
L
Austria Lustenau3–2Sturm Graz29 Oct · away
Pick: Sturm Graz 46% · missed
D
Sturm Graz2–2Ried25 Oct · home
Pick: Sturm Graz 65% · missed
W
Sturm Graz1–0Marseille22 Oct · home
Pick: Sturm Graz 54% · hit
W
Sturm Graz6–1Grazer AK18 Oct · home
Pick: Sturm Graz 72% · hit

Celje

W
Celje4–0Nafta1 Nov · home
Pick: Celje 60% · hit
D
Olimpija Ljubljana1–1Celje28 Oct · away
Pick: Celje 50% · missed
W
Korotan Prevalje0–2Celje25 Oct · away
Pick: Celje 63% · hit
D
Celje2–2Red Bull Salzburg22 Oct · home
Pick: Celje 50% · missed
D
Maribor0–0Celje18 Oct · away
Pick: Celje 36% · missed

About this match

Sturm Graz and Celje meet in UEFA Europa League on Thursday 5 November 2026, kickoff 20:00 UTC. The match is played at Stadion Graz-Liebenau. ScoreProb published its prediction on 30 Oct, 08:38 UTC: Sturm Graz win 32.3%, draw 25.1%, Celje win 42.6%. The pick is Celje win. Over 2.5 goals: 58.1%. Both teams to score: 55.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.