ScoreProb
Reserve League Argentina Round 16 2026

Unión Santa Fe Res. vs Godoy Cruz Res.

Unión Santa Fe Res. Home · Elo 1,547
Full time
2–3
Half time 2–3
Wed 4 Nov · 18:00 UTC
Godoy Cruz Res. Away · Elo 1,434
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Pick published 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC, before kickoff
What we said before kickoff Result: Godoy Cruz Res. win
Unión Santa Fe Res. winPick
53.8%
Draw
25.7%
Godoy Cruz Res. win Result
20.4%

How our picks did

Based on the final score. It joins the public record at the next nightly settlement.

1 of 3 hit
Match result
Our pickUnión Santa Fe Res. win · 53.8%
What happenedGodoy Cruz Res. win · we gave it 20.4%
Missed
Over 2.5 goals
Our pickUnder · 50.4%
What happenedOver · 5 goals
Missed
Both teams to score
Our pickYes · 50.3%
What happenedYes · 2–3
Hit

How surprising was it?

Result: Godoy Cruz Res. win. In our numbers it ranked third of the three.

20%
chance we gave it
0%50%100%
1 in 4.9
on average
A pick at 54% is expected to miss about 5 times in 10. One match does not judge a model. The record across every settled match does.
See the full record

Timeline

Newest at the bottom

7'
Goal
GoalR. Solbes
11'
16'
Goal
GoalB. Perez
18'
40'
Goal

Both teams to score

Yes50.3%
No49.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.549.6%
Under 2.550.4%

How much we know

Unión Santa Fe Res. history55 matches
Godoy Cruz Res. history54 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Life of this match

Every step is time-stamped, from first prediction to settled result.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 9 h ahead
    29 Oct · 08:38 UTC
  2. Re-published 16 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 18:58 UTC
  3. Kickoff
    4 Nov · 18:00 UTC
  4. Full time: 2–3One of our three picks hit
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

Share this result

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How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (53.8%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Unión Santa Fe Res. are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Unión Santa Fe Res. are rated 113 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,547 against 1,434. On rating alone Unión Santa Fe Res. would be expected to take 66% of the points on offer.

  • Unión Santa Fe Res. score more

    1.35 goals a game over 55 matches for Unión Santa Fe Res., against 1.07 over 54 for Godoy Cruz Res..

  • Unión Santa Fe Res. concede fewer

    Unión Santa Fe Res. concede 1.16 a game, Godoy Cruz Res. 1.31.

  • Godoy Cruz Res. games more often go over 2.5 goals

    42% of Unión Santa Fe Res. matches, against 50% for Godoy Cruz Res.. The model puts this match at 50% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 18 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Unión Santa Fe Res.
Godoy Cruz Res.@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1547.4
ELO
1434.0
55
ELO · Matches
54
1547.4
Current Team ELO
1434.0
1434.0
Current Opponent ELO
1547.4
113.4
Current ELO Difference
-113.4
0.66
Expected score
0.34
55
History Matches
54
0.04
Residual Mean
-0.06
53.21
Overperformance
45.64
0.01
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.04
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
1.20
0.60
Goals for per game
0.80
0.60
Goals against per game
0.80
0.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.50
PPG
1.00
0.90
Goals for per game
1.00
0.60
Goals against per game
1.20
30.0%
Win rate
20.0%
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
0.83
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.63
0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.98
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.08
Overall performance9 signals
90
55
Matches
54
1.55
PPG
1.00
38.2%
Win rate
24.1%
40.0%
Draw rate
27.8%
21.8%
Loss rate
48.1%
72.7%
Over 1.5 rate
72.2%
41.8%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
32.7%
Over 3.5 rate
18.5%
1.40
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.35
Venue performance10 signals
100
28
Matches
27
1.68
PPG
0.52
39.3%
Win rate
7.4%
50.0%
Draw rate
29.6%
10.7%
Loss rate
63.0%
71.4%
Over 1.5 rate
77.8%
39.3%
Over 2.5 rate
48.1%
32.1%
Over 3.5 rate
18.5%
1.01
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.97
28
History Matches
27
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.35
Goals for per game
1.07
74.5%
Scoring rate
72.2%
56.4%
BTTS rate
53.7%
1.36
Goals for per game
0.85
78.6%
Scoring rate
66.7%
60.7%
BTTS rate
63.0%
1.09
Goals for per game
1.04
68.2%
Scoring rate
78.3%
50.0%
BTTS rate
60.9%
55
History Matches
54
1.35
Goals Mean
1.07
1.08
Goals Std
0.86
74.5%
Scored 1+ rate
72.2%
41.8%
Scored 2+ rate
29.6%
14.5%
Scored 3+ rate
5.6%
1.36
Venue Goals Mean
0.85
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.16
Goals against per game
1.31
69.1%
Conceding rate
70.4%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.59
67.9%
Conceding rate
88.9%
0.91
Goals against per game
1.48
63.6%
Conceding rate
73.9%
55
History Matches
54
1.16
Conceded Mean
1.31
1.06
Conceded Std
1.09
32.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
44.4%
10.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
14.8%
1.00
Venue Conceded Mean
1.59
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
30.9%
Clean-sheet rate
29.6%
25.5%
Failed-to-score rate
27.8%
32.1%
Clean-sheet rate
11.1%
21.4%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
36.4%
Clean-sheet rate
26.1%
31.8%
Failed-to-score rate
21.7%
30.9%
Clean-sheet rate
29.6%
25.5%
Failed-to-score rate
27.8%
32.1%
Clean-sheet rate
11.1%
21.4%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
30.9%
Clean-sheet rate
29.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
55
History Matches
54
0.97
Result entropy
0.96
1.40
Goal Difference Std
1.35
2.94
Stability score
4.38
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
55
Eligible Matches
54
15
Lead Matches
10
66.7%
Lead Win Rate
80.0%
0.76
Lead Points Retention
0.83
16
Trailing Matches
15
50.0%
Non-loss rate
6.7%
12.5%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
55
Halftime Coverage Matches
54
0.56
First Half Goals For Mean
0.48
0.64
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.57
0.78
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.59
0.53
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.74
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
78.00
Rest days
78.00
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
31
Normal Rest History Matches
31
1.58
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.16
23
Long Rest History Matches
22
1.57
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.77
Competition & season17 signals
170
22
Matches
23
1.50
PPG
0.91
31.8%
Win rate
21.7%
54.5%
Draw rate
26.1%
13.6%
Loss rate
52.2%
68.2%
Over 1.5 rate
69.6%
27.3%
Over 2.5 rate
47.8%
22.7%
Over 3.5 rate
26.1%
1.34
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.10
22
Current Competition Matches
23
1.50
Current Competition PPG
0.91
0.18
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.43
2
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.04
Portability PPG Std
0.08
0.08
Portability PPG Range
0.15
92.96
Portability Score
86.85
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
55
Clean History Matches
54
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO113.4
PPG0.55
GF0.27
GA-0.15
PPG0.59
PPG1.16
PPG-0.20
PPG0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate1.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.02
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate21.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.12
History Matches1
Goals Mean0.27
Goals Std0.22
Scored 1+ rate2.3%
Scored 2+ rate12.2%
Scored 3+ rate9.0%
Venue Goals Mean0.51
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.20
History Matches1
Conceded Mean-0.15
Conceded Std-0.03
Clean-sheet rate1.3%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.12
Conceded 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Conceded Mean-0.59
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.18
History Matches1
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std0.06
Stability score-1.43
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.14
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.02
Eligible Matches1
Lead Matches5
Lead Win Rate-0.13
Lead Points Retention-0.08
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate43.3%
Trailing Win Rate12.5%
Halftime Coverage Matches1
First Half Goals For Mean0.08
First Half Goals Against Mean0.06
Second Half Goals For Mean0.19
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.21
Current Competition Matches-1
Current Competition PPG0.59
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.62
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.04
Portability PPG Range-0.08
Portability Score6.11
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.42
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.79
Current Team ELO113.4
Current Opponent ELO-113.4
Current ELO Difference226.8
Expected score0.32
History Matches1
Residual Mean0.10
Overperformance7.57
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.02

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Unión Santa Fe Res.

L
Gimnasia Mendoza 21–0Unión Santa Fe Res.28 Oct · away
Pick: Unión Santa Fe Res. 39% · missed
D
Unión Santa Fe Res.1–1Barracas Central Res.22 Oct · home
Pick: Unión Santa Fe Res. 56% · missed
L
Talleres Córdoba Res.3–0Unión Santa Fe Res.15 Oct · away
Pick: Talleres Córdoba Res. 38% · hit
W
Unión Santa Fe Res.5–0Banfield Res.6 Oct · home
Pick: Unión Santa Fe Res. 53% · hit
D
Unión Santa Fe Res.0–0Vélez Sársfield Res.1 Sep · home
Pick: Vélez Sársfield Res. 41% · missed

Godoy Cruz Res.

W
Godoy Cruz Res.4–2Atlético Tucumán Res.29 Oct · home
Pick: Godoy Cruz Res. 42% · hit
D
Godoy Cruz Res.1–1Instituto Res.22 Oct · home
Pick: Instituto Res. 37% · missed
D
Gimnasia Mendoza 20–0Godoy Cruz Res.15 Oct · away
Pick: Gimnasia Mendoza 2 45% · missed
D
Godoy Cruz Res.0–0Barracas Central Res.8 Oct · home
Pick: Godoy Cruz Res. 48% · missed
L
San Lorenzo Res.3–0Godoy Cruz Res.26 Aug · away
Pick: San Lorenzo Res. 55% · hit

Match report

Unión Santa Fe Res. and Godoy Cruz Res. finished 2–3 in Reserve League on Wednesday 4 November 2026. It was 2–3 at half time. ScoreProb published its prediction on 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC, before kickoff: Unión Santa Fe Res. win 53.8%, draw 25.7%, Godoy Cruz Res. win 20.4%. One of the three picks hit.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.