Victoria United vs Cotonsport
What we said before kickoff Result: Cotonsport win
Victoria United winPick
41.2%
Draw
23.6%
Cotonsport win Result
35.2%
How our picks did
Based on the final score. It joins the public record at the next nightly settlement.
Match result
Our pickVictoria United win · 41.2%
What happenedCotonsport win · we gave it 35.2%
Missed Over 2.5 goals
Our pickOver · 50.6%
What happenedUnder · 2 goals
Missed Both teams to score
Our pickYes · 52.3%
What happenedNo · 0–2
Missed How surprising was it?
Result: Cotonsport win. In our numbers it ranked second of the three.
35%
chance we gave it0%50%100%
1 in 2.8
on average A pick at 41% is expected to miss about 6 times in 10. One match does not judge a model. The record across every settled match does.
See the full record
Timeline
Newest at the bottom
20'
GoalH. Seini
89'
GoalY. Assan
Both teams to score
Yes52.3%
No47.7%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.550.6%
Under 2.549.4%
How much we know
Victoria United history46 matches
Cotonsport history43 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your calls on this match
Made on this device before kickoff, compared with the result.
Life of this match
Every step is time-stamped, from first prediction to settled result.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 7 h ahead29 Oct · 08:38 UTC
- Re-published 16 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 2 Nov · 18:58 UTC
- Kickoff4 Nov · 16:00 UTC
- Full time: 0–2None of our three picks hit
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
Share this result
A picture made for this match: teams, our probabilities and the verified stamp. Works in chats and on social.
The card keeps the pre-match numbers. A miss is shared as plainly as a hit.
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (41.2%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.
Why Victoria United are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Cotonsport are rated 76 Elo points higher
Elo 1,566 against 1,490. On rating alone Cotonsport would be expected to take 61% of the points on offer.
-
Victoria United score more
1.50 goals a game over 46 matches for Victoria United, against 1.35 over 43 for Cotonsport.
-
Cotonsport concede fewer
Victoria United concede 1.57 a game, Cotonsport 0.95.
-
Victoria United games more often go over 2.5 goals
63% of Victoria United matches, against 40% for Cotonsport. The model puts this match at 51% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 28 Jun 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Cotonsport@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1489.6
ELO
1566.0
46
ELO · Matches
43
1489.6
Current Team ELO
1566.0
1566.0
Current Opponent ELO
1489.6
-76.37
Current ELO Difference
76.37
0.39
Expected score
0.61
46
History Matches
43
-0.01
Residual Mean
0.07
49.48
Overperformance
55.04
-0.19
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.15
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
1.20
1.20
Goals for per game
1.20
1.80
Goals against per game
0.80
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
0.90
PPG
1.90
1.10
Goals for per game
1.80
2.20
Goals against per game
0.80
30.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.80
0.94
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.40
2.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.80
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.87
0.56
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.87
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.34
Overall performance9 signals 90
46
Matches
43
1.39
PPG
1.67
41.3%
Win rate
46.5%
15.2%
Draw rate
27.9%
43.5%
Loss rate
25.6%
80.4%
Over 1.5 rate
69.8%
63.0%
Over 2.5 rate
39.5%
41.3%
Over 3.5 rate
18.6%
2.20
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.50
Venue performance10 signals 100
24
Matches
22
1.79
PPG
1.18
54.2%
Win rate
27.3%
16.7%
Draw rate
36.4%
29.2%
Loss rate
36.4%
83.3%
Over 1.5 rate
59.1%
62.5%
Over 2.5 rate
22.7%
45.8%
Over 3.5 rate
13.6%
2.13
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.20
24
History Matches
22
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.50
Goals for per game
1.35
80.4%
Scoring rate
69.8%
52.2%
BTTS rate
46.5%
2.00
Goals for per game
0.86
83.3%
Scoring rate
59.1%
45.8%
BTTS rate
36.4%
46
History Matches
43
1.50
Goals Mean
1.35
1.25
Goals Std
1.27
80.4%
Scored 1+ rate
69.8%
39.1%
Scored 2+ rate
41.9%
19.6%
Scored 3+ rate
11.6%
2.00
Venue Goals Mean
0.86
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.57
Goals against per game
0.95
69.6%
Conceding rate
62.8%
1.17
Goals against per game
0.95
62.5%
Conceding rate
59.1%
46
History Matches
43
1.57
Conceded Mean
0.95
1.42
Conceded Std
0.89
45.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
27.9%
26.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
4.7%
1.17
Venue Conceded Mean
0.95
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
30.4%
Clean-sheet rate
37.2%
19.6%
Failed-to-score rate
30.2%
37.5%
Clean-sheet rate
40.9%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
40.9%
30.4%
Clean-sheet rate
37.2%
19.6%
Failed-to-score rate
30.2%
37.5%
Clean-sheet rate
40.9%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
40.9%
30.4%
Clean-sheet rate
37.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
46
History Matches
43
0.92
Result entropy
0.97
2.20
Goal Difference Std
1.50
7.72
Stability score
3.43
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
45
Eligible Matches
43
16
Lead Matches
15
75.0%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
0.77
Lead Points Retention
1.00
14
Trailing Matches
11
21.4%
Non-loss rate
18.2%
7.1%
Trailing Win Rate
9.1%
Goal timing5 signals 50
45
Halftime Coverage Matches
43
0.73
First Half Goals For Mean
0.70
0.64
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.63
0.73
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.65
0.89
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.33
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
129.1
Rest days
129.1
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
6
Short Rest History Matches
7
2.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.29
23
Normal Rest History Matches
17
1.17
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.53
16
Long Rest History Matches
18
1.38
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.50
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.14
Portability PPG Std
0.02
0.28
Portability PPG Range
0.05
78.08
Portability Score
95.67
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
46
Clean History Matches
43
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-76.37
PPG-0.28
GF0.15
GA0.61
PPG0.61
PPG0.00
PPG-1.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate-0.07
Failed-to-score rate-0.11
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Failed-to-score rate-0.24
History Matches3
Goals Mean0.15
Goals Std-0.03
Scored 1+ rate10.7%
Scored 2+ rate-0.03
Scored 3+ rate7.9%
Venue Goals Mean1.14
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.46
History Matches3
Conceded Mean0.61
Conceded Std0.54
Clean-sheet rate-0.07
Conceded 2+ rate17.7%
Conceded 3+ rate21.4%
Venue Conceded Mean0.21
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.53
History Matches3
Result entropy-0.04
Goal Difference Std0.70
Stability score4.29
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.30
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.53
Eligible Matches2
Lead Matches1
Lead Win Rate-0.25
Lead Points Retention-0.23
Trailing Matches3
Non-loss rate3.2%
Trailing Win Rate-0.02
Halftime Coverage Matches2
First Half Goals For Mean0.04
First Half Goals Against Mean0.02
Second Half Goals For Mean0.08
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.56
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.12
Portability PPG Range0.24
Portability Score-17.59
Rest days0.07
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match0.21
Normal Rest History Matches6
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.36
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.13
Current Team ELO-76.37
Current Opponent ELO76.37
Current ELO Difference-152.7
Expected score-0.22
History Matches3
Residual Mean-0.08
Overperformance-5.56
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.34
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Victoria United
No earlier results with our pick yet
Cotonsport
No earlier results with our pick yet
Match report
Victoria United and Cotonsport finished 0–2 in Elite One on Wednesday 4 November 2026. It was 0–1 at half time. ScoreProb published its prediction on 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC, before kickoff: Victoria United win 41.2%, draw 23.6%, Cotonsport win 35.2%. None of the three picks hit.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.