ScoreProb
Ligue 3 France Round 12 2026

Villefranche vs Quevilly

Villefranche Home · Elo 1,451
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Quevilly Away · Elo 1,455
Stade Armand Chouffet Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Villefranche win
Villefranche winPick
44.4%
Draw
27.0%
Quevilly win
28.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes50.5%
No49.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.547.5%
Under 2.552.5%

How much we know

Villefranche history53 matches
Quevilly history55 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 13:45 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (44.4%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Villefranche are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,451 against 1,455. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.06 goals a game over 53 matches for Villefranche, against 1.00 over 55 for Quevilly.

  • Defences are close

    Villefranche concede 1.38 a game, Quevilly 1.44.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    49% of Villefranche matches, against 49% for Quevilly. The model puts this match at 47% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 15 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Villefranche
Quevilly
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1450.6
ELO
1455.0
53
ELO · Matches
55
1450.6
Current Team ELO
1455.0
1455.0
Current Opponent ELO
1450.6
-4.39
Current ELO Difference
4.39
0.49
Expected score
0.51
53
History Matches
55
-0.05
Residual Mean
-0.04
46.59
Overperformance
46.74
-0.01
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.00
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
0.80
1.60
Goals for per game
0.80
2.20
Goals against per game
1.80
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
1.20
1.30
Goals for per game
0.80
1.60
Goals against per game
1.20
30.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.80
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.98
1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
1.56
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.60
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.68
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.20
Overall performance9 signals
90
53
Matches
55
1.09
PPG
1.09
28.3%
Win rate
27.3%
24.5%
Draw rate
27.3%
47.2%
Loss rate
45.5%
67.9%
Over 1.5 rate
63.6%
49.1%
Over 2.5 rate
49.1%
22.6%
Over 3.5 rate
21.8%
1.37
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.58
Venue performance10 signals
100
26
Matches
29
1.50
PPG
0.93
42.3%
Win rate
24.1%
23.1%
Draw rate
20.7%
34.6%
Loss rate
55.2%
73.1%
Over 1.5 rate
65.5%
46.2%
Over 2.5 rate
55.2%
19.2%
Over 3.5 rate
24.1%
1.32
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.86
26
History Matches
29
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.06
Goals for per game
1.00
62.3%
Scoring rate
67.3%
50.9%
BTTS rate
49.1%
1.27
Goals for per game
0.97
73.1%
Scoring rate
62.1%
53.8%
BTTS rate
44.8%
2.00
Goals for per game
0.50
100.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
53
History Matches
55
1.06
Goals Mean
1.00
1.00
Goals Std
0.99
62.3%
Scored 1+ rate
67.3%
35.8%
Scored 2+ rate
21.8%
5.7%
Scored 3+ rate
7.3%
1.27
Venue Goals Mean
0.97
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.38
Goals against per game
1.44
77.4%
Conceding rate
69.1%
1.12
Goals against per game
1.66
73.1%
Conceding rate
69.0%
1.50
Goals against per game
1.00
50.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
53
History Matches
55
1.38
Conceded Mean
1.44
1.10
Conceded Std
1.35
39.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
43.6%
17.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
18.2%
1.12
Venue Conceded Mean
1.66
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
22.6%
Clean-sheet rate
30.9%
37.7%
Failed-to-score rate
32.7%
26.9%
Clean-sheet rate
31.0%
26.9%
Failed-to-score rate
37.9%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
22.6%
Clean-sheet rate
30.9%
37.7%
Failed-to-score rate
32.7%
26.9%
Clean-sheet rate
31.0%
26.9%
Failed-to-score rate
37.9%
22.6%
Clean-sheet rate
30.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
53
History Matches
55
0.96
Result entropy
0.97
1.37
Goal Difference Std
1.58
3.84
Stability score
2.87
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
53
Eligible Matches
55
8
Lead Matches
15
75.0%
Lead Win Rate
66.7%
0.75
Lead Points Retention
0.76
14
Trailing Matches
20
14.3%
Non-loss rate
10.0%
14.3%
Trailing Win Rate
5.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
53
Halftime Coverage Matches
55
0.45
First Half Goals For Mean
0.58
0.58
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.76
0.60
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.42
0.79
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.67
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
84.86
Rest days
84.86
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
2
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.50
35
Normal Rest History Matches
31
1.34
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.26
16
Long Rest History Matches
21
0.69
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.86
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
1.50
PPG
0.50
50.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
50.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.50
2
Current Competition Matches
2
1.50
Current Competition PPG
0.50
0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.50
5
Competition Season Count
6
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.31
Portability PPG Std
0.15
0.66
Portability PPG Range
0.33
62.02
Portability Score
77.12
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
53
Clean History Matches
55
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-4.39
PPG0.00
GF0.06
GA-0.06
PPG1.00
PPG0.57
PPG0.00
PPG0.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate-0.08
Failed-to-score rate5.0%
History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Failed-to-score rate-0.11
History Matches-2
Goals Mean0.06
Goals Std0.01
Scored 1+ rate-0.05
Scored 2+ rate14.0%
Scored 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Goals Mean0.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std0.12
History Matches-2
Conceded Mean-0.06
Conceded Std-0.24
Clean-sheet rate-0.08
Conceded 2+ rate-0.04
Conceded 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Conceded Mean-0.54
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.04
History Matches-2
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.21
Stability score0.97
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.52
Eligible Matches-2
Lead Matches-7
Lead Win Rate8.3%
Lead Points Retention-0.01
Trailing Matches-6
Non-loss rate4.3%
Trailing Win Rate9.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches-2
First Half Goals For Mean-0.13
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.18
Second Half Goals For Mean0.19
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.12
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.00
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std0.16
Portability PPG Range0.32
Portability Score-15.11
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.50
Normal Rest History Matches4
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.08
Long Rest History Matches-5
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.17
Current Team ELO-4.39
Current Opponent ELO4.39
Current ELO Difference-8.77
Expected score-0.01
History Matches-2
Residual Mean0.00
Overperformance-0.14
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.01

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Villefranche

D
Orleans1–1Villefranche31 Oct · away
Pick: Orleans 50% · missed
W
Villefranche2–1Cannes17 Oct · home
Pick: Villefranche 44% · hit
L
Villefranche0–2Rouen29 Aug · home
Pick: Rouen 39% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Quevilly

L
Bastia2–0Quevilly31 Oct · away
Pick: Bastia 39% · hit
W
Quevilly3–2Orleans17 Oct · home
Pick: Orleans 40% · missed
W
Quevilly2–1Fleury 9129 Aug · home
Pick: Fleury 91 38% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Villefranche and Quevilly meet in Ligue 3 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 13:45 UTC. The match is played at Stade Armand Chouffet. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Villefranche win 44.4%, draw 27.0%, Quevilly win 28.6%. The pick is Villefranche win. Over 2.5 goals: 47.5%. Both teams to score: 50.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.