ScoreProb
Derde Divisie Netherlands Round 12 2026

VV Scherpenzeel vs DVS 33 Ermelo

VV Scherpenzeel Home · Elo 1,497
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
DVS 33 Ermelo Away · Elo 1,533
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: VV Scherpenzeel win
VV Scherpenzeel winPick
44.6%
Draw
23.4%
DVS 33 Ermelo win
32.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes59.4%
No40.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.565.6%
Under 2.534.4%

How much we know

VV Scherpenzeel history35 matches
DVS 33 Ermelo history53 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 14:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (44.6%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why VV Scherpenzeel are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • DVS 33 Ermelo are rated 36 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,533 against 1,497. On rating alone DVS 33 Ermelo would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • VV Scherpenzeel score more

    1.80 goals a game over 35 matches for VV Scherpenzeel, against 1.60 over 53 for DVS 33 Ermelo.

  • DVS 33 Ermelo concede fewer

    VV Scherpenzeel concede 1.60 a game, DVS 33 Ermelo 1.26.

  • VV Scherpenzeel games more often go over 2.5 goals

    69% of VV Scherpenzeel matches, against 57% for DVS 33 Ermelo. The model puts this match at 66% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
VV Scherpenzeel
DVS 33 Ermelo
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1497.0
ELO
1532.6
35
ELO · Matches
53
1497.0
Current Team ELO
1532.6
1532.6
Current Opponent ELO
1497.0
-35.55
Current ELO Difference
35.55
0.45
Expected score
0.55
35
History Matches
53
0.00
Residual Mean
0.03
49.89
Overperformance
52.00
-0.12
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.12
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
0.20
2.20
Goals for per game
0.60
1.80
Goals against per game
1.80
40.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.10
PPG
1.20
1.70
Goals for per game
1.20
1.70
Goals against per game
1.50
30.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
1.62
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.98
1.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
1.27
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.81
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
2.28
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.19
Overall performance9 signals
90
35
Matches
53
1.40
PPG
1.62
40.0%
Win rate
45.3%
20.0%
Draw rate
26.4%
40.0%
Loss rate
28.3%
82.9%
Over 1.5 rate
73.6%
68.6%
Over 2.5 rate
56.6%
48.6%
Over 3.5 rate
35.8%
2.29
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.79
Venue performance10 signals
100
18
Matches
27
1.72
PPG
1.19
50.0%
Win rate
29.6%
22.2%
Draw rate
29.6%
27.8%
Loss rate
40.7%
94.4%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
77.8%
Over 2.5 rate
48.1%
44.4%
Over 3.5 rate
29.6%
2.13
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.59
18
History Matches
27
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.80
Goals for per game
1.60
80.0%
Scoring rate
79.2%
57.1%
BTTS rate
47.2%
2.22
Goals for per game
1.11
94.4%
Scoring rate
70.4%
66.7%
BTTS rate
44.4%
1.50
Goals for per game
0.50
100.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
35
History Matches
53
1.80
Goals Mean
1.60
1.47
Goals Std
1.25
80.0%
Scored 1+ rate
79.2%
45.7%
Scored 2+ rate
45.3%
31.4%
Scored 3+ rate
26.4%
2.22
Venue Goals Mean
1.11
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.60
Goals against per game
1.26
71.4%
Conceding rate
60.4%
1.56
Goals against per game
1.44
72.2%
Conceding rate
63.0%
2.00
Goals against per game
1.50
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
35
History Matches
53
1.60
Conceded Mean
1.26
1.48
Conceded Std
1.26
40.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
43.4%
31.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
15.1%
1.56
Venue Conceded Mean
1.44
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
39.6%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
20.8%
27.8%
Clean-sheet rate
37.0%
5.6%
Failed-to-score rate
29.6%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
39.6%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
20.8%
27.8%
Clean-sheet rate
37.0%
5.6%
Failed-to-score rate
29.6%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
39.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
35
History Matches
53
0.96
Result entropy
0.97
2.29
Goal Difference Std
1.79
3.98
Stability score
2.82
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
25
Eligible Matches
40
7
Lead Matches
13
85.7%
Lead Win Rate
76.9%
0.90
Lead Points Retention
0.85
5
Trailing Matches
7
40.0%
Non-loss rate
28.6%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
25
Halftime Coverage Matches
40
0.64
First Half Goals For Mean
0.70
0.48
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.48
1.32
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.88
0.80
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.75
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
1
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
20
Normal Rest History Matches
29
1.60
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.69
14
Long Rest History Matches
22
1.21
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.64
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
1.50
PPG
0.00
50.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.00
2
Current Competition Matches
2
1.50
Current Competition PPG
0.00
-0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.00
3
Competition Season Count
6
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
—
Portability PPG Std
0.07
—
Portability PPG Range
0.13
—
Portability Score
88.17
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
35
Clean History Matches
53
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scorePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-35.55
PPG-0.22
GF0.20
GA0.34
PPG1.50
PPG0.54
PPG1.20
PPG-0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-18
Clean-sheet rate-0.11
Failed-to-score rate-0.01
History Matches-9
Clean-sheet rate-0.09
Failed-to-score rate-0.24
History Matches-18
Goals Mean0.20
Goals Std0.22
Scored 1+ rate0.8%
Scored 2+ rate0.4%
Scored 3+ rate5.0%
Venue Goals Mean1.11
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std0.64
History Matches-18
Conceded Mean0.34
Conceded Std0.22
Clean-sheet rate-0.11
Conceded 2+ rate-0.03
Conceded 3+ rate16.3%
Venue Conceded Mean0.11
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.46
History Matches-18
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std0.50
Stability score1.16
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.09
Eligible Matches-15
Lead Matches-6
Lead Win Rate8.8%
Lead Points Retention0.06
Trailing Matches-2
Non-loss rate11.4%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-15
First Half Goals For Mean-0.06
First Half Goals Against Mean0.01
Second Half Goals For Mean0.45
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.05
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.50
Competition Season Count-3
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest History Matches-9
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.09
Long Rest History Matches-8
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.42
Current Team ELO-35.55
Current Opponent ELO35.55
Current ELO Difference-71.09
Expected score-0.10
History Matches-18
Residual Mean-0.03
Overperformance-2.11
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.00

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

VV Scherpenzeel

D
Hollandia2–2VV Scherpenzeel25 Oct · away
Pick: VV Scherpenzeel 43% · missed
D
VV Scherpenzeel1–1TEC17 Oct · home
Pick: TEC 48% · missed
L
AFC '344–1VV Scherpenzeel1 Sep · away
Pick: VV Scherpenzeel 39% · missed
W
Dovo2–3VV Scherpenzeel29 Aug · away
Pick: Dovo 54% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

DVS 33 Ermelo

W
DVS 33 Ermelo4–3SVZW24 Oct · home
Pick: DVS 33 Ermelo 57% · hit
L
Staphorst2–1DVS 33 Ermelo17 Oct · away
Pick: DVS 33 Ermelo 38% · missed
D
ACV1–1DVS 33 Ermelo29 Aug · away
Pick: ACV 52% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

VV Scherpenzeel and DVS 33 Ermelo meet in Derde Divisie on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 14:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: VV Scherpenzeel win 44.6%, draw 23.4%, DVS 33 Ermelo win 32.0%. The pick is VV Scherpenzeel win. Over 2.5 goals: 65.6%. Both teams to score: 59.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.