ScoreProb
Championship England Round 15 2026

Watford vs Middlesbrough

Watford Home · Elo 1,463
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Middlesbrough Away · Elo 1,561
Vicarage Road, Watford Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Watford win
Watford winPick
37.1%
Draw
27.0%
Middlesbrough win
35.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes53.7%
No46.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.551.8%
Under 2.548.2%

How much we know

Watford history74 matches
Middlesbrough history76 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (37.1%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Watford are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Middlesbrough are rated 99 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,561 against 1,463. On rating alone Middlesbrough would be expected to take 64% of the points on offer.

  • Middlesbrough score more

    1.08 goals a game over 74 matches for Watford, against 1.37 over 76 for Middlesbrough.

  • Middlesbrough concede fewer

    Watford concede 1.42 a game, Middlesbrough 1.18.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    49% of Watford matches, against 54% for Middlesbrough. The model puts this match at 52% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 26 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Watford
Middlesbrough
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1462.7
ELO
1561.5
74
ELO · Matches
76
1462.7
Current Team ELO
1561.5
1561.5
Current Opponent ELO
1462.7
-98.80
Current ELO Difference
98.80
0.36
Expected score
0.64
74
History Matches
76
-0.02
Residual Mean
0.04
48.56
Overperformance
52.97
0.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.10
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
2.00
1.00
Goals for per game
2.00
1.60
Goals against per game
1.40
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.10
PPG
1.40
1.20
Goals for per game
1.40
2.10
Goals against per game
1.20
30.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
0.87
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.02
2.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
1.81
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.87
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
2.30
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
0.87
Overall performance9 signals
90
74
Matches
76
1.15
PPG
1.47
28.4%
Win rate
39.5%
29.7%
Draw rate
28.9%
41.9%
Loss rate
31.6%
74.3%
Over 1.5 rate
68.4%
48.6%
Over 2.5 rate
53.9%
21.6%
Over 3.5 rate
30.3%
1.56
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.55
Venue performance10 signals
100
39
Matches
39
1.49
PPG
1.23
41.0%
Win rate
30.8%
25.6%
Draw rate
30.8%
33.3%
Loss rate
38.5%
76.9%
Over 1.5 rate
79.5%
43.6%
Over 2.5 rate
59.0%
15.4%
Over 3.5 rate
35.9%
1.75
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.54
39
History Matches
39
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.08
Goals for per game
1.37
71.6%
Scoring rate
71.1%
56.8%
BTTS rate
56.6%
1.18
Goals for per game
1.36
71.8%
Scoring rate
71.8%
48.7%
BTTS rate
64.1%
1.50
Goals for per game
1.50
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
74
History Matches
76
1.08
Goals Mean
1.37
0.90
Goals Std
1.21
71.6%
Scored 1+ rate
71.1%
28.4%
Scored 2+ rate
42.1%
8.1%
Scored 3+ rate
15.8%
1.18
Venue Goals Mean
1.36
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.42
Goals against per game
1.18
79.7%
Conceding rate
76.3%
1.21
Goals against per game
1.38
71.8%
Conceding rate
87.2%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.50
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
74
History Matches
76
1.42
Conceded Mean
1.18
1.17
Conceded Std
0.97
40.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
28.9%
10.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
10.5%
1.21
Venue Conceded Mean
1.38
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
20.3%
Clean-sheet rate
23.7%
28.4%
Failed-to-score rate
28.9%
28.2%
Clean-sheet rate
12.8%
28.2%
Failed-to-score rate
28.2%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
20.3%
Clean-sheet rate
23.7%
28.4%
Failed-to-score rate
28.9%
28.2%
Clean-sheet rate
12.8%
28.2%
Failed-to-score rate
28.2%
20.3%
Clean-sheet rate
23.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
74
History Matches
76
0.99
Result entropy
0.99
1.56
Goal Difference Std
1.55
1.46
Stability score
0.80
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
74
Eligible Matches
76
14
Lead Matches
24
78.6%
Lead Win Rate
75.0%
0.83
Lead Points Retention
0.76
27
Trailing Matches
21
25.9%
Non-loss rate
42.9%
11.1%
Trailing Win Rate
19.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
74
Halftime Coverage Matches
76
0.49
First Half Goals For Mean
0.67
0.74
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.51
0.59
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.70
0.68
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.67
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
73.84
Rest days
73.85
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
7
Short Rest History Matches
9
1.14
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.33
47
Normal Rest History Matches
48
1.15
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.63
19
Long Rest History Matches
18
1.21
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.22
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
2.00
PPG
1.50
50.0%
Win rate
50.0%
50.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
0.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.00
2
Current Competition Matches
2
2.00
Current Competition PPG
1.50
0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
8
Competition Season Count
8
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.13
Portability PPG Std
0.41
0.30
Portability PPG Range
1.01
79.51
Portability Score
54.70
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
74
Clean History Matches
76
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-98.80
PPG-0.33
GF-0.29
GA0.23
PPG0.50
PPG0.26
PPG-0.60
PPG-0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Failed-to-score rate-0.01
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate15.4%
Failed-to-score rate0.0%
History Matches-2
Goals Mean-0.29
Goals Std-0.32
Scored 1+ rate0.6%
Scored 2+ rate-0.14
Scored 3+ rate-0.08
Venue Goals Mean-0.18
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.15
History Matches-2
Conceded Mean0.23
Conceded Std0.20
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Conceded 2+ rate11.6%
Conceded 3+ rate0.3%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.18
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.94
History Matches-2
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std0.01
Stability score0.66
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.43
Eligible Matches-2
Lead Matches-10
Lead Win Rate3.6%
Lead Points Retention0.07
Trailing Matches6
Non-loss rate-0.17
Trailing Win Rate-0.08
Halftime Coverage Matches-2
First Half Goals For Mean-0.18
First Half Goals Against Mean0.23
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.10
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.00
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.50
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.29
Portability PPG Range-0.71
Portability Score24.81
Rest days-0.01
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.19
Normal Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.48
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.01
Current Team ELO-98.80
Current Opponent ELO98.80
Current ELO Difference-197.6
Expected score-0.28
History Matches-2
Residual Mean-0.06
Overperformance-4.41
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.04

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Watford

W
Watford1–0Lincoln3 Nov · home
Pick: Watford 42% · hit
L
Norwich3–2Watford31 Oct · away
Pick: Norwich 45% · hit
L
Wolves1–0Watford24 Oct · away
Pick: Wolves 55% · hit
W
Watford2–0Charlton17 Oct · home
Pick: Charlton 46% · missed
L
Cardiff5–1Watford13 Oct · away
Pick: Cardiff 55% · hit

Middlesbrough

W
Middlesbrough3–0Charlton31 Oct · home
Pick: Charlton 38% · missed
W
Bolton1–5Middlesbrough23 Oct · away
Pick: Bolton 57% · missed
D
Middlesbrough2–2Cardiff17 Oct · home
Pick: Middlesbrough 36% · missed
W
Stoke City2–3Middlesbrough13 Oct · away
Pick: Middlesbrough 40% · hit
W
Middlesbrough3–1West Brom29 Aug · home
Pick: Middlesbrough 43% · hit

About this match

Watford and Middlesbrough meet in Championship on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. The match is played at Vicarage Road, Watford. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Watford win 37.1%, draw 27.0%, Middlesbrough win 35.9%. The pick is Watford win. Over 2.5 goals: 51.8%. Both teams to score: 53.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.