ScoreProb
U19 Bundesliga Germany Preliminary 2026

Werder Bremen U19 vs Magdeburg U19

Werder Bremen U19 Home · Elo 1,489
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Magdeburg U19 Away · Elo 1,541
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Werder Bremen U19 win
Werder Bremen U19 winPick
42.9%
Draw
17.8%
Magdeburg U19 win
39.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes67.8%
No32.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.573.9%
Under 2.526.1%

How much we know

Werder Bremen U19 history46 matches
Magdeburg U19 history43 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 1 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 10:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (42.9%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Werder Bremen U19 are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Magdeburg U19 are rated 52 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,541 against 1,489. On rating alone Magdeburg U19 would be expected to take 57% of the points on offer.

  • Magdeburg U19 score far more

    1.83 goals a game over 46 matches for Werder Bremen U19, against 2.86 over 43 for Magdeburg U19.

  • Werder Bremen U19 concede fewer

    Werder Bremen U19 concede 1.80 a game, Magdeburg U19 2.12.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    76% of Werder Bremen U19 matches, against 84% for Magdeburg U19. The model puts this match at 74% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Werder Bremen U19
Magdeburg U19
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1488.8
ELO
1540.5
46
ELO · Matches
43
1488.8
Current Team ELO
1540.5
1540.5
Current Opponent ELO
1488.8
-51.71
Current ELO Difference
51.71
0.43
Expected score
0.57
46
History Matches
43
-0.02
Residual Mean
0.05
48.90
Overperformance
53.26
0.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.12
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
2.00
2.00
Goals for per game
2.60
1.40
Goals against per game
2.00
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
2.00
1.80
Goals for per game
2.90
1.80
Goals against per game
2.10
50.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.90
1.17
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.58
1.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.10
1.72
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.70
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
2.61
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.99
Overall performance9 signals
90
46
Matches
43
1.35
PPG
1.67
39.1%
Win rate
48.8%
17.4%
Draw rate
20.9%
43.5%
Loss rate
30.2%
89.1%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
76.1%
Over 2.5 rate
83.7%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
65.1%
2.33
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.63
Venue performance10 signals
100
22
Matches
21
1.23
PPG
1.81
36.4%
Win rate
52.4%
13.6%
Draw rate
23.8%
50.0%
Loss rate
23.8%
90.9%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
81.8%
Over 2.5 rate
71.4%
54.5%
Over 3.5 rate
61.9%
2.36
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.59
22
History Matches
21
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.83
Goals for per game
2.86
82.6%
Scoring rate
93.0%
67.4%
BTTS rate
79.1%
2.00
Goals for per game
2.95
81.8%
Scoring rate
90.5%
72.7%
BTTS rate
76.2%
1.67
Goals for per game
1.50
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
46
History Matches
43
1.83
Goals Mean
2.86
1.52
Goals Std
2.10
82.6%
Scored 1+ rate
93.0%
50.0%
Scored 2+ rate
69.8%
26.1%
Scored 3+ rate
48.8%
2.00
Venue Goals Mean
2.95
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.80
Goals against per game
2.12
82.6%
Conceding rate
86.0%
1.86
Goals against per game
2.00
86.4%
Conceding rate
85.7%
1.67
Goals against per game
1.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
46
History Matches
43
1.80
Conceded Mean
2.12
1.33
Conceded Std
1.40
56.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
65.1%
26.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
39.5%
1.86
Venue Conceded Mean
2.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
17.4%
Clean-sheet rate
14.0%
17.4%
Failed-to-score rate
7.0%
13.6%
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
18.2%
Failed-to-score rate
9.5%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
17.4%
Clean-sheet rate
14.0%
17.4%
Failed-to-score rate
7.0%
13.6%
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
18.2%
Failed-to-score rate
9.5%
17.4%
Clean-sheet rate
14.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
46
History Matches
43
0.94
Result entropy
0.95
2.33
Goal Difference Std
2.63
5.93
Stability score
5.43
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
46
Eligible Matches
43
14
Lead Matches
16
78.6%
Lead Win Rate
87.5%
0.81
Lead Points Retention
0.90
15
Trailing Matches
15
20.0%
Non-loss rate
40.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
20.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
46
Halftime Coverage Matches
43
0.83
First Half Goals For Mean
1.23
0.89
First Half Goals Against Mean
1.02
1.00
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.63
0.91
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.09
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
76.04
Rest days
76.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
23
Normal Rest History Matches
19
1.43
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.89
22
Long Rest History Matches
23
1.32
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.43
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
2
1.33
PPG
2.00
33.3%
Win rate
50.0%
33.3%
Draw rate
50.0%
33.3%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
66.7%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.63
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.50
3
Current Competition Matches
2
1.33
Current Competition PPG
2.00
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.50
6
Competition Season Count
4
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.19
Portability PPG Std
0.33
0.46
Portability PPG Range
0.65
72.47
Portability Score
60.43
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
46
Clean History Matches
43
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-51.71
PPG-0.33
GF-1.03
GA-0.31
PPG-0.67
PPG-0.58
PPG-0.60
PPG-0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate3.4%
Failed-to-score rate10.4%
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Failed-to-score rate8.7%
History Matches3
Goals Mean-1.03
Goals Std-0.58
Scored 1+ rate-0.10
Scored 2+ rate-0.20
Scored 3+ rate-0.23
Venue Goals Mean-0.95
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.41
History Matches3
Conceded Mean-0.31
Conceded Std-0.07
Clean-sheet rate3.4%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.09
Conceded 3+ rate-0.13
Venue Conceded Mean-0.14
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.02
History Matches3
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.31
Stability score0.50
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.01
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.62
Eligible Matches3
Lead Matches-2
Lead Win Rate-0.09
Lead Points Retention-0.09
Trailing Matches0
Non-loss rate-0.20
Trailing Win Rate-0.20
Halftime Coverage Matches3
First Half Goals For Mean-0.41
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.13
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.63
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.18
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG-0.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.50
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std-0.14
Portability PPG Range-0.19
Portability Score12.04
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches4
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.46
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.12
Current Team ELO-51.71
Current Opponent ELO51.71
Current ELO Difference-103.4
Expected score-0.15
History Matches3
Residual Mean-0.06
Overperformance-4.36
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.06

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Werder Bremen U19

W
Hansa Rostock U190–1Werder Bremen U191 Nov · away
Pick: Werder Bremen U19 48% · hit
W
Werder Bremen U194–0Hamburger SV U1925 Oct · home
Pick: Hamburger SV U19 39% · missed
W
Holstein Kiel U192–4Werder Bremen U1917 Oct · away
Pick: Werder Bremen U19 52% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Magdeburg U19

D
Magdeburg U191–1St. Pauli U1931 Oct · home
Pick: St. Pauli U19 48% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Werder Bremen U19 and Magdeburg U19 meet in U19 Bundesliga on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 10:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Werder Bremen U19 win 42.9%, draw 17.8%, Magdeburg U19 win 39.3%. The pick is Werder Bremen U19 win. Over 2.5 goals: 73.9%. Both teams to score: 67.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.