ScoreProb
Championship England Round 15 2026

West Brom vs Millwall

West Brom Home · Elo 1,534
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Millwall Away · Elo 1,615
The Hawthorns, West Bromwich Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Millwall win
West Brom win
32.0%
Draw
25.5%
Millwall winPick
42.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes46.5%
No53.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.549.5%
Under 2.550.5%

How much we know

West Brom history76 matches
Millwall history86 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (42.5%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Millwall are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Millwall are rated 81 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,615 against 1,534. On rating alone Millwall would be expected to take 61% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.29 goals a game over 76 matches for West Brom, against 1.37 over 86 for Millwall.

  • Millwall concede fewer

    West Brom concede 1.29 a game, Millwall 1.09.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    49% of West Brom matches, against 45% for Millwall. The model puts this match at 49% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 26 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
West Brom
Millwall
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1533.9
ELO
1615.2
76
ELO · Matches
86
1533.9
Current Team ELO
1615.2
1615.2
Current Opponent ELO
1533.9
-81.22
Current ELO Difference
81.22
0.39
Expected score
0.61
76
History Matches
86
0.02
Residual Mean
0.05
51.47
Overperformance
53.86
0.31
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.01
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
3.00
PPG
2.60
3.00
Goals for per game
1.60
0.80
Goals against per game
0.20
100.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
2.50
PPG
1.70
2.60
Goals for per game
1.10
0.70
Goals against per game
0.70
80.0%
Win rate
50.0%
2.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.10
1.28
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.94
0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.70
0.64
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.64
0.58
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.37
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.43
Overall performance9 signals
90
76
Matches
86
1.30
PPG
1.80
34.2%
Win rate
53.5%
27.6%
Draw rate
19.8%
38.2%
Loss rate
26.7%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
74.4%
48.7%
Over 2.5 rate
45.3%
22.4%
Over 3.5 rate
19.8%
1.55
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.78
Venue performance10 signals
100
36
Matches
51
1.67
PPG
1.67
44.4%
Win rate
47.1%
33.3%
Draw rate
25.5%
22.2%
Loss rate
27.5%
77.8%
Over 1.5 rate
74.5%
47.2%
Over 2.5 rate
43.1%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
21.6%
1.58
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.75
36
History Matches
51
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.29
Goals for per game
1.37
73.7%
Scoring rate
82.6%
57.9%
BTTS rate
48.8%
1.47
Goals for per game
1.33
75.0%
Scoring rate
82.4%
58.3%
BTTS rate
54.9%
2.50
Goals for per game
2.50
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
76
History Matches
86
1.29
Goals Mean
1.37
1.14
Goals Std
1.05
73.7%
Scored 1+ rate
82.6%
34.2%
Scored 2+ rate
37.2%
14.5%
Scored 3+ rate
12.8%
1.47
Venue Goals Mean
1.33
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.29
Goals against per game
1.09
75.0%
Conceding rate
61.6%
1.17
Goals against per game
1.18
72.2%
Conceding rate
66.7%
1.00
Goals against per game
0.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
0.0%
76
History Matches
86
1.29
Conceded Mean
1.09
1.09
Conceded Std
1.22
35.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
26.7%
14.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
12.8%
1.17
Venue Conceded Mean
1.18
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
38.4%
26.3%
Failed-to-score rate
17.4%
27.8%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
17.6%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
100.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
38.4%
26.3%
Failed-to-score rate
17.4%
27.8%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
17.6%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
38.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
76
History Matches
86
0.99
Result entropy
0.92
1.55
Goal Difference Std
1.78
0.79
Stability score
8.26
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
76
Eligible Matches
86
23
Lead Matches
30
69.6%
Lead Win Rate
96.7%
0.78
Lead Points Retention
0.98
20
Trailing Matches
17
10.0%
Non-loss rate
29.4%
5.0%
Trailing Win Rate
11.8%
Goal timing5 signals
50
76
Halftime Coverage Matches
86
0.57
First Half Goals For Mean
0.60
0.57
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.42
0.72
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.77
0.72
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.67
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.17
Rest days
73.84
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
8
Short Rest History Matches
10
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.00
49
Normal Rest History Matches
61
1.29
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.72
18
Long Rest History Matches
14
1.56
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.93
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
3.00
PPG
3.00
100.0%
Win rate
100.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
0.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.50
2
Current Competition Matches
2
3.00
Current Competition PPG
3.00
1.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
2.50
8
Competition Season Count
9
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.82
Portability PPG Std
0.38
2.00
Portability PPG Range
1.00
37.84
Portability Score
56.85
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
76
Clean History Matches
86
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-81.22
PPG-0.50
GF-0.08
GA0.20
PPG0.00
PPG0.00
PPG0.40
PPG0.80
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-10
Clean-sheet rate-0.13
Failed-to-score rate8.9%
History Matches-15
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Failed-to-score rate7.4%
History Matches-10
Goals Mean-0.08
Goals Std0.10
Scored 1+ rate-0.09
Scored 2+ rate-0.03
Scored 3+ rate1.7%
Venue Goals Mean0.14
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.50
Recent 10 Goals Std0.34
History Matches-10
Conceded Mean0.20
Conceded Std-0.13
Clean-sheet rate-0.13
Conceded 2+ rate8.8%
Conceded 3+ rate1.7%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.01
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.00
History Matches-10
Result entropy0.07
Goal Difference Std-0.23
Stability score-7.48
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.36
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.05
Eligible Matches-10
Lead Matches-7
Lead Win Rate-0.27
Lead Points Retention-0.20
Trailing Matches3
Non-loss rate-0.19
Trailing Win Rate-0.07
Halftime Coverage Matches-10
First Half Goals For Mean-0.04
First Half Goals Against Mean0.15
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.04
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.05
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.00
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std0.44
Portability PPG Range1.00
Portability Score-19.01
Rest days2.32
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.00
Normal Rest History Matches-12
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.44
Long Rest History Matches4
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.37
Current Team ELO-81.22
Current Opponent ELO81.22
Current ELO Difference-162.4
Expected score-0.23
History Matches-10
Residual Mean-0.03
Overperformance-2.39
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.30

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

West Brom

D
West Brom1–1Southampton3 Nov · home
Pick: West Brom 45% · missed
W
West Ham1–3West Brom31 Oct · away
Pick: West Brom 36% · hit
D
Preston1–1West Brom24 Oct · away
Pick: West Brom 44% · missed
W
West Brom3–2Blackburn17 Oct · home
Pick: West Brom 48% · hit
W
Wrexham1–2West Brom13 Oct · away
Pick: Wrexham 49% · missed

Millwall

L
Birmingham3–0Millwall3 Nov · away
Pick: Birmingham 36% · hit
W
Millwall4–1Derby31 Oct · home
Pick: Millwall 62% · hit
L
Portsmouth2–1Millwall24 Oct · away
Pick: Millwall 49% · missed
D
Millwall2–2Lincoln17 Oct · home
Pick: Millwall 47% · missed
L
Millwall0–1Swansea13 Oct · home
Pick: Millwall 61% · missed

About this match

West Brom and Millwall meet in Championship on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. The match is played at The Hawthorns, West Bromwich. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: West Brom win 32.0%, draw 25.5%, Millwall win 42.5%. The pick is Millwall win. Over 2.5 goals: 49.5%. Both teams to score: 46.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.