Weymouth vs Hampton & Richmond
Match result probability Model pick: Hampton & Richmond win
Weymouth win
31.7%
Draw
23.7%
Hampton & Richmond winPick
44.6%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes59.0%
No41.0%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.558.1%
Under 2.541.9%
How much we know
Weymouth history66 matches
Hampton & Richmond history77 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Hampton & Richmond
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 14:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre14 Nov · 15:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (44.6%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.
Why Hampton & Richmond are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
The Elo ratings are level
Elo 1,454 against 1,448. On rating alone the teams are close to even.
-
Scoring rates are level
1.26 goals a game over 66 matches for Weymouth, against 1.18 over 77 for Hampton & Richmond.
-
Defences are close
Weymouth concede 1.86 a game, Hampton & Richmond 1.86.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
59% of Weymouth matches, against 60% for Hampton & Richmond. The model puts this match at 58% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Hampton & Richmond@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1453.7
ELO
1447.5
66
ELO · Matches
77
1453.7
Current Team ELO
1447.5
1447.5
Current Opponent ELO
1453.7
6.16
Current ELO Difference
-6.16
0.51
Expected score
0.49
66
History Matches
77
-0.03
Residual Mean
-0.03
47.33
Overperformance
47.34
0.12
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.01
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
1.20
1.40
Goals for per game
1.20
2.00
Goals against per game
2.60
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
1.30
1.50
Goals for per game
1.20
1.20
Goals against per game
2.10
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
1.75
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.54
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.10
1.33
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.58
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
2.41
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.39
Overall performance9 signals 90
66
Matches
77
0.98
PPG
0.99
25.8%
Win rate
27.3%
21.2%
Draw rate
16.9%
53.0%
Loss rate
55.8%
81.8%
Over 1.5 rate
81.8%
59.1%
Over 2.5 rate
59.7%
40.9%
Over 3.5 rate
33.8%
2.29
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.10
Venue performance10 signals 100
32
Matches
40
1.19
PPG
0.85
31.3%
Win rate
22.5%
25.0%
Draw rate
17.5%
43.8%
Loss rate
60.0%
81.3%
Over 1.5 rate
82.5%
62.5%
Over 2.5 rate
55.0%
43.8%
Over 3.5 rate
27.5%
2.32
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.06
32
History Matches
40
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.26
Goals for per game
1.18
59.1%
Scoring rate
66.2%
48.5%
BTTS rate
50.6%
1.63
Goals for per game
0.98
68.8%
Scoring rate
60.0%
56.3%
BTTS rate
45.0%
66
History Matches
77
1.26
Goals Mean
1.18
1.40
Goals Std
1.20
59.1%
Scored 1+ rate
66.2%
36.4%
Scored 2+ rate
31.2%
16.7%
Scored 3+ rate
13.0%
1.63
Venue Goals Mean
0.98
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.86
Goals against per game
1.86
80.3%
Conceding rate
79.2%
1.59
Goals against per game
1.83
78.1%
Conceding rate
80.0%
66
History Matches
77
1.86
Conceded Mean
1.86
1.54
Conceded Std
1.54
50.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
57.1%
31.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
27.3%
1.59
Venue Conceded Mean
1.83
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
19.7%
Clean-sheet rate
20.8%
40.9%
Failed-to-score rate
33.8%
21.9%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
31.3%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
19.7%
Clean-sheet rate
20.8%
40.9%
Failed-to-score rate
33.8%
21.9%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
31.3%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
19.7%
Clean-sheet rate
20.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
66
History Matches
77
0.92
Result entropy
0.89
2.29
Goal Difference Std
2.10
7.64
Stability score
10.79
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
66
Eligible Matches
76
19
Lead Matches
14
78.9%
Lead Win Rate
78.6%
0.82
Lead Points Retention
0.83
25
Trailing Matches
37
20.0%
Non-loss rate
8.1%
8.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
66
Halftime Coverage Matches
76
0.67
First Half Goals For Mean
0.41
0.77
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.91
0.59
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.74
1.09
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.95
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
105.0
Rest days
84.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
3
0.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
53
Normal Rest History Matches
66
1.08
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.98
8
Long Rest History Matches
7
0.75
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.71
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
6
Competition Season Count
7
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.09
Portability PPG Std
0.59
0.17
Portability PPG Range
1.67
85.14
Portability Score
45.85
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
66
Clean History Matches
77
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO6.16
PPG0.00
GF0.08
GA0.01
PPG0.34
PPG-0.40
PPG0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-11
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Failed-to-score rate7.1%
History Matches-8
Clean-sheet rate1.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.09
History Matches-11
Goals Mean0.08
Goals Std0.19
Scored 1+ rate-0.07
Scored 2+ rate5.2%
Scored 3+ rate3.7%
Venue Goals Mean0.65
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std0.21
History Matches-11
Conceded Mean0.01
Conceded Std-0.01
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Conceded 2+ rate-0.07
Conceded 3+ rate4.5%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.23
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.25
History Matches-11
Result entropy0.03
Goal Difference Std0.18
Stability score-3.15
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.03
Eligible Matches-10
Lead Matches5
Lead Win Rate0.4%
Lead Points Retention-0.01
Trailing Matches-12
Non-loss rate11.9%
Trailing Win Rate8.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-10
First Half Goals For Mean0.26
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.14
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.15
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.14
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-3
Portability PPG Std-0.50
Portability PPG Range-1.49
Portability Score39.28
Rest days21.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.50
Normal Rest History Matches-13
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.09
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.04
Current Team ELO6.16
Current Opponent ELO-6.16
Current ELO Difference12.32
Expected score0.02
History Matches-11
Residual Mean0.00
Overperformance-0.01
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.11
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Weymouth
W
Weymouth3–2Sholing24 Oct · home
Pick: Sholing 52% · missed W
Weymouth5–1Melksham Town29 Aug · home
Pick: Weymouth 57% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
Hampton & Richmond
D
Hampton & Richmond1–1Maidenhead7 Nov · home
Pick: Maidenhead 52% · missed L
Dorking Wanderers3–2Hampton & Richmond3 Nov · away
Pick: Dorking Wanderers 66% · hit L
Braintree1–0Hampton & Richmond31 Oct · away
Pick: Braintree 52% · hit D
Billericay Town2–2Hampton & Richmond27 Oct · away
Pick: Billericay Town 72% · missed L
Hampton & Richmond3–4Truro City24 Oct · home
Pick: Truro City 60% · hit About this match
Weymouth and Hampton & Richmond meet in FA Trophy on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Weymouth win 31.7%, draw 23.7%, Hampton & Richmond win 44.6%. The pick is Hampton & Richmond win. Over 2.5 goals: 58.1%. Both teams to score: 59.0%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.