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League One England Round 15 2026

Wigan vs Barnsley

Wigan Home · Elo 1,486
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Barnsley Away · Elo 1,500
The Brick Community Stadium, Wigan Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Wigan win
Wigan winPick
37.8%
Draw
28.3%
Barnsley win
33.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes52.2%
No47.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.550.5%
Under 2.549.5%

How much we know

Wigan history87 matches
Barnsley history86 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (37.8%). Picks in that band won 39.9% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,949 matches.

Why Wigan are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,486 against 1,500. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Barnsley score more

    1.00 goals a game over 87 matches for Wigan, against 1.49 over 86 for Barnsley.

  • Wigan concede fewer

    Wigan concede 1.21 a game, Barnsley 1.71.

  • Barnsley games more often go over 2.5 goals

    32% of Wigan matches, against 65% for Barnsley. The model puts this match at 50% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 26 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Wigan
Barnsley@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1485.8
ELO
1499.9
87
ELO · Matches
86
1485.8
Current Team ELO
1499.9
1499.9
Current Opponent ELO
1485.8
-14.08
Current ELO Difference
14.08
0.48
Expected score
0.52
87
History Matches
86
-0.01
Residual Mean
0.00
49.54
Overperformance
49.95
-0.15
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.05
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
1.20
1.20
Goals for per game
1.00
2.00
Goals against per game
1.00
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
0.80
PPG
1.20
1.00
Goals for per game
1.20
1.50
Goals against per game
1.30
20.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
1.18
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.08
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
1.02
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.10
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.50
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.70
Overall performance9 signals
90
87
Matches
86
1.21
PPG
1.24
28.7%
Win rate
32.6%
34.5%
Draw rate
26.7%
36.8%
Loss rate
40.7%
67.8%
Over 1.5 rate
83.7%
32.2%
Over 2.5 rate
65.1%
16.1%
Over 3.5 rate
39.5%
1.49
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.81
Venue performance10 signals
100
44
Matches
44
1.39
PPG
1.09
38.6%
Win rate
27.3%
22.7%
Draw rate
27.3%
38.6%
Loss rate
45.5%
63.6%
Over 1.5 rate
79.5%
29.5%
Over 2.5 rate
63.6%
9.1%
Over 3.5 rate
36.4%
1.44
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.72
44
History Matches
44
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.00
Goals for per game
1.49
66.7%
Scoring rate
75.6%
46.0%
BTTS rate
66.3%
0.98
Goals for per game
1.30
65.9%
Scoring rate
77.3%
36.4%
BTTS rate
63.6%
1.00
Goals for per game
0.00
50.0%
Scoring rate
0.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
87
History Matches
86
1.00
Goals Mean
1.49
0.95
Goals Std
1.25
66.7%
Scored 1+ rate
75.6%
23.0%
Scored 2+ rate
43.0%
9.2%
Scored 3+ rate
22.1%
0.98
Venue Goals Mean
1.30
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.21
Goals against per game
1.71
70.1%
Conceding rate
87.2%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.73
63.6%
Conceding rate
81.8%
2.50
Goals against per game
0.50
100.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
87
History Matches
86
1.21
Conceded Mean
1.71
1.15
Conceded Std
1.23
33.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
52.3%
10.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
18.6%
1.00
Venue Conceded Mean
1.73
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
29.9%
Clean-sheet rate
12.8%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
24.4%
36.4%
Clean-sheet rate
18.2%
34.1%
Failed-to-score rate
22.7%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
100.0%
29.9%
Clean-sheet rate
12.8%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
24.4%
36.4%
Clean-sheet rate
18.2%
34.1%
Failed-to-score rate
22.7%
29.9%
Clean-sheet rate
12.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
87
History Matches
86
1.00
Result entropy
0.99
1.49
Goal Difference Std
1.81
0.48
Stability score
1.34
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
87
Eligible Matches
86
23
Lead Matches
25
60.9%
Lead Win Rate
64.0%
0.74
Lead Points Retention
0.69
29
Trailing Matches
30
27.6%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
3.4%
Trailing Win Rate
10.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
87
Halftime Coverage Matches
86
0.45
First Half Goals For Mean
0.67
0.57
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.71
0.55
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.81
0.63
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.00
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
84.04
Rest days
80.84
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
5
Short Rest History Matches
5
0.80
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.80
72
Normal Rest History Matches
69
1.24
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.20
9
Long Rest History Matches
11
1.33
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.82
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
0.00
PPG
0.50
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
50.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
0.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
0.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.50
2
Current Competition Matches
2
0.00
Current Competition PPG
0.50
-1.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.50
11
Competition Season Count
9
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.49
Portability PPG Std
0.39
1.67
Portability PPG Range
1.25
50.63
Portability Score
56.44
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
87
Clean History Matches
86
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-14.08
PPG-0.04
GF-0.49
GA-0.50
PPG-0.50
PPG0.30
PPG-0.40
PPG-0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate17.1%
Failed-to-score rate8.9%
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate18.2%
Failed-to-score rate11.4%
History Matches1
Goals Mean-0.49
Goals Std-0.30
Scored 1+ rate-0.09
Scored 2+ rate-0.20
Scored 3+ rate-0.13
Venue Goals Mean-0.32
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std0.11
History Matches1
Conceded Mean-0.50
Conceded Std-0.08
Clean-sheet rate17.1%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.19
Conceded 3+ rate-0.08
Venue Conceded Mean-0.73
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.08
History Matches1
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.32
Stability score-0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.20
Eligible Matches1
Lead Matches-2
Lead Win Rate-0.03
Lead Points Retention0.05
Trailing Matches-1
Non-loss rate-0.06
Trailing Win Rate-0.07
Halftime Coverage Matches1
First Half Goals For Mean-0.23
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.13
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.26
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.37
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.00
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.10
Portability PPG Range0.42
Portability Score-5.81
Rest days3.20
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match0.00
Normal Rest History Matches3
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.03
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.48
Current Team ELO-14.08
Current Opponent ELO14.08
Current ELO Difference-28.16
Expected score-0.04
History Matches1
Residual Mean-0.01
Overperformance-0.41
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.20

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Wigan

W
Boreham Wood0–3Wigan7 Nov · away
Pick: Boreham Wood 53% · missed
W
Wigan3–2Bromley31 Oct · home
Pick: Bromley 40% · missed
L
Leicester3–0Wigan27 Oct · away
Pick: Leicester 48% · hit
L
Huddersfield2–1Wigan24 Oct · away
Pick: Huddersfield 56% · hit
L
Oxford United2–1Wigan20 Oct · away
Pick: Oxford United 51% · hit

Barnsley

W
Barnsley7–2Aldershot Town7 Nov · home
Pick: Aldershot Town 45% · missed
D
Barnsley1–1Oxford United31 Oct · home
Pick: Barnsley 45% · missed
L
Reading2–1Barnsley24 Oct · away
Pick: Reading 46% · hit
L
Luton2–1Barnsley20 Oct · away
Pick: Luton 53% · hit
L
Barnsley1–2Cambridge United17 Oct · home
Pick: Cambridge United 46% · hit

About this match

Wigan and Barnsley meet in League One on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. The match is played at The Brick Community Stadium, Wigan. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Wigan win 37.8%, draw 28.3%, Barnsley win 33.8%. The pick is Wigan win. Over 2.5 goals: 50.5%. Both teams to score: 52.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.