Wimborne Town vs Uxbridge
Match result probability Model pick: Wimborne Town win
Wimborne Town winPick
42.5%
Draw
26.7%
Uxbridge win
30.8%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes55.6%
No44.4%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.558.3%
Under 2.541.7%
How much we know
Wimborne Town history73 matches
Uxbridge history63 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Wimborne Town
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 14:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre14 Nov · 15:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (42.5%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.
Why Wimborne Town are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Uxbridge are rated 80 Elo points higher
Elo 1,557 against 1,477. On rating alone Uxbridge would be expected to take 61% of the points on offer.
-
Uxbridge score more
1.37 goals a game over 73 matches for Wimborne Town, against 1.94 over 63 for Uxbridge.
-
Wimborne Town concede fewer
Wimborne Town concede 1.30 a game, Uxbridge 1.46.
-
Uxbridge games more often go over 2.5 goals
48% of Wimborne Town matches, against 67% for Uxbridge. The model puts this match at 58% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Uxbridge@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1477.0
ELO
1556.5
73
ELO · Matches
63
1477.0
Current Team ELO
1556.5
1556.5
Current Opponent ELO
1477.0
-79.57
Current ELO Difference
79.57
0.39
Expected score
0.61
73
History Matches
63
-0.01
Residual Mean
0.05
49.40
Overperformance
53.65
-0.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.17
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
2.20
1.00
Goals for per game
2.60
1.00
Goals against per game
1.60
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
1.90
1.70
Goals for per game
2.20
1.40
Goals against per game
1.50
20.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.20
1.79
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.17
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
1.02
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.36
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
2.33
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.00
Overall performance9 signals 90
73
Matches
63
1.36
PPG
1.60
34.2%
Win rate
44.4%
32.9%
Draw rate
27.0%
32.9%
Loss rate
28.6%
76.7%
Over 1.5 rate
87.3%
47.9%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
24.7%
Over 3.5 rate
39.7%
1.76
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.06
Venue performance10 signals 100
40
Matches
30
1.58
PPG
1.47
42.5%
Win rate
36.7%
30.0%
Draw rate
36.7%
27.5%
Loss rate
26.7%
70.0%
Over 1.5 rate
86.7%
45.0%
Over 2.5 rate
56.7%
22.5%
Over 3.5 rate
30.0%
1.46
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.76
40
History Matches
30
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.37
Goals for per game
1.94
76.7%
Scoring rate
84.1%
56.2%
BTTS rate
63.5%
1.38
Goals for per game
1.57
82.5%
Scoring rate
80.0%
57.5%
BTTS rate
60.0%
73
History Matches
63
1.37
Goals Mean
1.94
1.23
Goals Std
1.61
76.7%
Scored 1+ rate
84.1%
34.2%
Scored 2+ rate
58.7%
16.4%
Scored 3+ rate
27.0%
1.38
Venue Goals Mean
1.57
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.30
Goals against per game
1.46
75.3%
Conceding rate
74.6%
1.13
Goals against per game
1.37
72.5%
Conceding rate
73.3%
73
History Matches
63
1.30
Conceded Mean
1.46
1.11
Conceded Std
1.19
35.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
42.9%
13.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
23.8%
1.13
Venue Conceded Mean
1.37
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
24.7%
Clean-sheet rate
25.4%
23.3%
Failed-to-score rate
15.9%
27.5%
Clean-sheet rate
26.7%
17.5%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
24.7%
Clean-sheet rate
25.4%
23.3%
Failed-to-score rate
15.9%
27.5%
Clean-sheet rate
26.7%
17.5%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
24.7%
Clean-sheet rate
25.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
73
History Matches
63
1.00
Result entropy
0.98
1.76
Goal Difference Std
2.06
0.02
Stability score
2.44
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
73
Eligible Matches
62
22
Lead Matches
29
59.1%
Lead Win Rate
72.4%
0.70
Lead Points Retention
0.78
23
Trailing Matches
15
39.1%
Non-loss rate
46.7%
13.0%
Trailing Win Rate
13.3%
Goal timing5 signals 50
73
Halftime Coverage Matches
62
0.58
First Half Goals For Mean
0.94
0.53
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.56
0.79
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.00
0.77
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.90
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
84.04
Rest days
84.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
5
Short Rest History Matches
3
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.67
61
Normal Rest History Matches
51
1.36
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.49
6
Long Rest History Matches
8
1.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.13
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
7
Competition Season Count
7
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.41
Portability PPG Std
0.46
1.00
Portability PPG Range
1.10
55.25
Portability Score
52.24
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
73
Clean History Matches
63
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-79.57
PPG-0.25
GF-0.57
GA-0.16
PPG0.11
PPG-1.20
PPG-0.90
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches10
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Failed-to-score rate7.4%
History Matches10
Clean-sheet rate0.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.03
History Matches10
Goals Mean-0.57
Goals Std-0.38
Scored 1+ rate-0.07
Scored 2+ rate-0.24
Scored 3+ rate-0.11
Venue Goals Mean-0.19
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std0.63
History Matches10
Conceded Mean-0.16
Conceded Std-0.09
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Conceded 2+ rate-0.07
Conceded 3+ rate-0.10
Venue Conceded Mean-0.24
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.34
History Matches10
Result entropy0.02
Goal Difference Std-0.30
Stability score-2.42
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.32
Eligible Matches11
Lead Matches-7
Lead Win Rate-0.13
Lead Points Retention-0.08
Trailing Matches8
Non-loss rate-0.08
Trailing Win Rate0.00
Halftime Coverage Matches11
First Half Goals For Mean-0.36
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.03
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.21
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.14
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Portability PPG Std-0.05
Portability PPG Range-0.10
Portability Score3.01
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Short Rest Points Per Match0.33
Normal Rest History Matches10
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.13
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match-1.13
Current Team ELO-79.57
Current Opponent ELO79.57
Current ELO Difference-159.1
Expected score-0.23
History Matches10
Residual Mean-0.06
Overperformance-4.25
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.21
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Wimborne Town
W
Wimborne Town2–0Chippenham Town31 Oct · home
Pick: Wimborne Town 51% · hit D
Yate Town0–0Wimborne Town27 Oct · away
Pick: Yate Town 48% · missed W
Taunton Town1–4Wimborne Town24 Oct · away
Pick: Taunton Town 38% · missed W
Wimborne Town3–0Gosport Borough20 Oct · home
Pick: Wimborne Town 49% · hit W
Wimborne Town1–0Chelmsford City17 Oct · home
Pick: Chelmsford City 42% · missed Uxbridge
D
Poole Town1–1Uxbridge7 Nov · away
Pick: Uxbridge 38% · missed L
Plymouth Parkway3–1Uxbridge3 Nov · away
Pick: Plymouth Parkway 48% · hit W
Uxbridge2–0Yate Town31 Oct · home
Pick: Uxbridge 51% · hit W
Basingstoke Town0–2Uxbridge27 Oct · away
Pick: Uxbridge 42% · hit W
Egham Town0–3Uxbridge24 Oct · away
Pick: Uxbridge 52% · hit About this match
Wimborne Town and Uxbridge meet in FA Trophy on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Wimborne Town win 42.5%, draw 26.7%, Uxbridge win 30.8%. The pick is Wimborne Town win. Over 2.5 goals: 58.3%. Both teams to score: 55.6%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.