ScoreProb
Non League Premier - Isthmian England Round 17 2026

Wingate & Finchley vs Maldon & Tiptree

Wingate & Finchley Home · Elo 1,465
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Maldon & Tiptree Away · Elo 1,633
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Wingate & Finchley win
Wingate & Finchley winPick
53.8%
Draw
20.1%
Maldon & Tiptree win
26.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes52.6%
No47.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.558.6%
Under 2.541.4%

How much we know

Wingate & Finchley history68 matches
Maldon & Tiptree history54 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (53.8%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Wingate & Finchley are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Maldon & Tiptree are rated 168 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,633 against 1,465. On rating alone Maldon & Tiptree would be expected to take 72% of the points on offer.

  • Maldon & Tiptree score more

    1.44 goals a game over 68 matches for Wingate & Finchley, against 2.06 over 54 for Maldon & Tiptree.

  • Maldon & Tiptree concede fewer

    Wingate & Finchley concede 1.53 a game, Maldon & Tiptree 0.91.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    56% of Wingate & Finchley matches, against 56% for Maldon & Tiptree. The model puts this match at 59% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Wingate & Finchley
Maldon & Tiptree
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1465.4
ELO
1633.3
68
ELO · Matches
54
1465.4
Current Team ELO
1633.3
1633.3
Current Opponent ELO
1465.4
-167.8
Current ELO Difference
167.8
0.28
Expected score
0.72
68
History Matches
54
-0.03
Residual Mean
0.12
47.83
Overperformance
58.97
0.01
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.01
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
1.20
0.80
Goals for per game
1.60
1.40
Goals against per game
2.40
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.10
PPG
1.90
0.90
Goals for per game
2.20
1.40
Goals against per game
1.60
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.20
0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.40
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.60
1.11
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.69
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.63
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.73
Overall performance9 signals
90
68
Matches
54
1.29
PPG
2.15
35.3%
Win rate
66.7%
23.5%
Draw rate
14.8%
41.2%
Loss rate
18.5%
79.4%
Over 1.5 rate
72.2%
55.9%
Over 2.5 rate
55.6%
36.8%
Over 3.5 rate
40.7%
1.98
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.09
Venue performance10 signals
100
33
Matches
26
1.45
PPG
1.69
42.4%
Win rate
50.0%
18.2%
Draw rate
19.2%
39.4%
Loss rate
30.8%
72.7%
Over 1.5 rate
65.4%
48.5%
Over 2.5 rate
57.7%
24.2%
Over 3.5 rate
46.2%
1.55
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.04
33
History Matches
26
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.44
Goals for per game
2.06
72.1%
Scoring rate
87.0%
55.9%
BTTS rate
42.6%
1.36
Goals for per game
1.62
69.7%
Scoring rate
80.8%
51.5%
BTTS rate
53.8%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.50
75.0%
Scoring rate
75.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
68
History Matches
54
1.44
Goals Mean
2.06
1.31
Goals Std
1.47
72.1%
Scored 1+ rate
87.0%
42.6%
Scored 2+ rate
57.4%
19.1%
Scored 3+ rate
33.3%
1.36
Venue Goals Mean
1.62
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.53
Goals against per game
0.91
77.9%
Conceding rate
50.0%
1.18
Goals against per game
1.42
78.8%
Conceding rate
65.4%
1.25
Goals against per game
2.25
75.0%
Conceding rate
75.0%
68
History Matches
54
1.53
Conceded Mean
0.91
1.32
Conceded Std
1.27
44.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
22.2%
17.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
9.3%
1.18
Venue Conceded Mean
1.42
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
22.1%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
27.9%
Failed-to-score rate
13.0%
21.2%
Clean-sheet rate
34.6%
30.3%
Failed-to-score rate
19.2%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
22.1%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
27.9%
Failed-to-score rate
13.0%
21.2%
Clean-sheet rate
34.6%
30.3%
Failed-to-score rate
19.2%
22.1%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
68
History Matches
54
0.98
Result entropy
0.79
1.98
Goal Difference Std
2.09
2.30
Stability score
21.22
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
68
Eligible Matches
35
20
Lead Matches
18
70.0%
Lead Win Rate
88.9%
0.78
Lead Points Retention
0.91
23
Trailing Matches
6
8.7%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
16.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
68
Halftime Coverage Matches
35
0.74
First Half Goals For Mean
0.83
0.75
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.49
0.71
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.34
0.78
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.71
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
2
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.50
53
Normal Rest History Matches
43
1.28
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.21
10
Long Rest History Matches
8
1.30
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.88
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
1.25
PPG
1.50
25.0%
Win rate
50.0%
50.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
25.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
25.0%
Over 2.5 rate
75.0%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
1.09
Goal difference · Standard deviation
3.34
4
Current Competition Matches
4
1.25
Current Competition PPG
1.50
-0.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.75
6
Competition Season Count
5
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.24
Portability PPG Std
0.36
0.65
Portability PPG Range
0.90
67.41
Portability Score
58.07
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
68
Clean History Matches
54
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-167.8
PPG-0.85
GF-0.61
GA0.62
PPG-0.25
PPG-0.24
PPG-0.20
PPG-0.80
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches14
Clean-sheet rate-0.28
Failed-to-score rate15.0%
History Matches7
Clean-sheet rate-0.13
Failed-to-score rate11.1%
History Matches14
Goals Mean-0.61
Goals Std-0.16
Scored 1+ rate-0.15
Scored 2+ rate-0.15
Scored 3+ rate-0.14
Venue Goals Mean-0.25
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.30
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.70
History Matches14
Conceded Mean0.62
Conceded Std0.06
Clean-sheet rate-0.28
Conceded 2+ rate21.9%
Conceded 3+ rate8.4%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.24
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.57
History Matches14
Result entropy0.19
Goal Difference Std-0.10
Stability score-18.92
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.12
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.10
Eligible Matches33
Lead Matches2
Lead Win Rate-0.19
Lead Points Retention-0.12
Trailing Matches17
Non-loss rate-0.25
Trailing Win Rate-0.17
Halftime Coverage Matches33
First Half Goals For Mean-0.09
First Half Goals Against Mean0.26
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.64
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.07
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.50
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.12
Portability PPG Range-0.25
Portability Score9.34
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.50
Normal Rest History Matches10
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.93
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.58
Current Team ELO-167.8
Current Opponent ELO167.8
Current ELO Difference-335.7
Expected score-0.45
History Matches14
Residual Mean-0.15
Overperformance-11.15
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.02

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Wingate & Finchley

D
Wingate & Finchley1–1Burgess Hill Town3 Nov · home
Pick: Burgess Hill Town 39% · missed
D
Lewes2–2Wingate & Finchley31 Oct · away
Pick: Lewes 42% · missed
W
Needham Market0–2Wingate & Finchley24 Oct · away
Pick: Needham Market 55% · missed
W
Wingate & Finchley4–2Carshalton Athletic20 Oct · home
Pick: Carshalton Athletic 43% · missed
W
Wingate & Finchley4–1Stanway Rovers17 Oct · home
Pick: Wingate & Finchley 57% · hit

Maldon & Tiptree

W
Maldon & Tiptree3–1Three Bridges31 Oct · home
Pick: Maldon & Tiptree 54% · hit
L
Maldon & Tiptree1–2Eastbourne Borough27 Oct · home
Pick: Eastbourne Borough 44% · hit
D
Maldon & Tiptree1–1Dulwich Hamlet24 Oct · home
Pick: Dulwich Hamlet 45% · missed
W
Aveley1–2Maldon & Tiptree19 Oct · away
Pick: Aveley 65% · missed
D
Lewes1–1Maldon & Tiptree17 Oct · away
Pick: Lewes 56% · missed

About this match

Wingate & Finchley and Maldon & Tiptree meet in Non League Premier - Isthmian on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Wingate & Finchley win 53.8%, draw 20.1%, Maldon & Tiptree win 26.2%. The pick is Wingate & Finchley win. Over 2.5 goals: 58.6%. Both teams to score: 52.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.