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FA Trophy England Round 128 2026

Worksop Town vs South Shields

Worksop Town Home · Elo 1,547
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
South Shields Away · Elo 1,609
Sandy Lane Stadium, Worksop Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: South Shields win
Worksop Town win
30.4%
Draw
23.6%
South Shields winPick
46.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes58.2%
No41.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.560.2%
Under 2.539.8%

How much we know

Worksop Town history75 matches
South Shields history86 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (46.0%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.

Why South Shields are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • South Shields are rated 63 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,609 against 1,547. On rating alone South Shields would be expected to take 59% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.75 goals a game over 75 matches for Worksop Town, against 1.80 over 86 for South Shields.

  • South Shields concede fewer

    Worksop Town concede 1.45 a game, South Shields 1.16.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    63% of Worksop Town matches, against 59% for South Shields. The model puts this match at 60% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Worksop Town
South Shields@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1546.7
ELO
1609.3
75
ELO · Matches
86
1546.7
Current Team ELO
1609.3
1609.3
Current Opponent ELO
1546.7
-62.59
Current ELO Difference
62.59
0.41
Expected score
0.59
75
History Matches
86
0.04
Residual Mean
0.07
52.84
Overperformance
56.07
0.13
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.01
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
2.60
1.00
Goals for per game
1.80
1.20
Goals against per game
0.60
60.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
2.10
PPG
1.70
2.50
Goals for per game
1.20
1.20
Goals against per game
0.90
70.0%
Win rate
50.0%
2.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
2.29
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.08
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.90
1.08
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.70
0.56
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
2.87
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.35
Overall performance9 signals
90
75
Matches
86
1.63
PPG
1.73
49.3%
Win rate
51.2%
14.7%
Draw rate
19.8%
36.0%
Loss rate
29.1%
82.7%
Over 1.5 rate
82.6%
62.7%
Over 2.5 rate
59.3%
37.3%
Over 3.5 rate
32.6%
2.04
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.08
Venue performance10 signals
100
40
Matches
37
1.75
PPG
1.59
52.5%
Win rate
45.9%
17.5%
Draw rate
21.6%
30.0%
Loss rate
32.4%
82.5%
Over 1.5 rate
83.8%
60.0%
Over 2.5 rate
56.8%
35.0%
Over 3.5 rate
32.4%
2.27
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.76
40
History Matches
37
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.75
Goals for per game
1.80
84.0%
Scoring rate
82.6%
58.7%
BTTS rate
55.8%
1.95
Goals for per game
1.62
82.5%
Scoring rate
83.8%
52.5%
BTTS rate
62.2%
75
History Matches
86
1.75
Goals Mean
1.80
1.42
Goals Std
1.45
84.0%
Scored 1+ rate
82.6%
49.3%
Scored 2+ rate
48.8%
24.0%
Scored 3+ rate
26.7%
1.95
Venue Goals Mean
1.62
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.45
Goals against per game
1.16
72.0%
Conceding rate
70.9%
1.25
Goals against per game
1.30
67.5%
Conceding rate
75.7%
75
History Matches
86
1.45
Conceded Mean
1.16
1.27
Conceded Std
1.11
44.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
29.1%
21.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
9.3%
1.25
Venue Conceded Mean
1.30
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
28.0%
Clean-sheet rate
29.1%
16.0%
Failed-to-score rate
17.4%
32.5%
Clean-sheet rate
24.3%
17.5%
Failed-to-score rate
16.2%
28.0%
Clean-sheet rate
29.1%
16.0%
Failed-to-score rate
17.4%
32.5%
Clean-sheet rate
24.3%
17.5%
Failed-to-score rate
16.2%
28.0%
Clean-sheet rate
29.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
75
History Matches
86
0.91
Result entropy
0.93
2.04
Goal Difference Std
2.08
9.17
Stability score
6.93
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
74
Eligible Matches
85
27
Lead Matches
39
81.5%
Lead Win Rate
84.6%
0.85
Lead Points Retention
0.89
20
Trailing Matches
22
25.0%
Non-loss rate
18.2%
5.0%
Trailing Win Rate
4.5%
Goal timing5 signals
50
74
Halftime Coverage Matches
85
0.78
First Half Goals For Mean
0.85
0.54
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.55
0.93
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.95
0.89
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.61
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
84.04
Rest days
84.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
5
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.80
64
Normal Rest History Matches
71
1.56
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.85
7
Long Rest History Matches
9
1.86
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.44
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
8
Competition Season Count
7
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.73
Portability PPG Std
0.56
1.76
Portability PPG Range
1.60
40.65
Portability Score
46.95
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
75
Clean History Matches
86
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-62.59
PPG-0.11
GF-0.06
GA0.29
PPG0.16
PPG-0.80
PPG0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-11
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Failed-to-score rate-0.01
History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate8.2%
Failed-to-score rate1.3%
History Matches-11
Goals Mean-0.06
Goals Std-0.03
Scored 1+ rate1.4%
Scored 2+ rate0.5%
Scored 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Goals Mean0.33
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.30
Recent 10 Goals Std1.21
History Matches-11
Conceded Mean0.29
Conceded Std0.16
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Conceded 2+ rate14.9%
Conceded 3+ rate12.0%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.05
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.38
History Matches-11
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std-0.04
Stability score2.24
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.38
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.52
Eligible Matches-11
Lead Matches-12
Lead Win Rate-0.03
Lead Points Retention-0.04
Trailing Matches-2
Non-loss rate6.8%
Trailing Win Rate0.5%
Halftime Coverage Matches-11
First Half Goals For Mean-0.06
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.01
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.02
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.28
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Portability PPG Std0.16
Portability PPG Range0.16
Portability Score-6.30
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Short Rest Points Per Match1.20
Normal Rest History Matches-7
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.28
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.41
Current Team ELO-62.59
Current Opponent ELO62.59
Current ELO Difference-125.2
Expected score-0.18
History Matches-11
Residual Mean-0.04
Overperformance-3.23
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.15

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Worksop Town

L
Worksop Town0–1Brackley Town31 Oct · home
Pick: Worksop Town 44% · missed
W
Worksop Town5–0King's Lynn Town27 Oct · home
Pick: Worksop Town 47% · hit
D
Harborough Town1–1Worksop Town24 Oct · away
Pick: Harborough Town 57% · missed
D
Buxton2–2Worksop Town17 Oct · away
Pick: Buxton 56% · missed
L
Worksop Town0–1Oxford City31 Aug · home
Pick: Oxford City 43% · hit

South Shields

W
South Shields5–1Southport7 Nov · home
Pick: South Shields 52% · hit
W
Oxford City1–3South Shields31 Oct · away
Pick: Oxford City 40% · missed
W
Spennymoor Town0–1South Shields27 Oct · away
Pick: South Shields 52% · hit
W
South Shields3–1Chester24 Oct · home
Pick: Chester 35% · missed
L
FC Halifax Town3–2South Shields17 Oct · away
Pick: FC Halifax Town 39% · hit

About this match

Worksop Town and South Shields meet in FA Trophy on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. The match is played at Sandy Lane Stadium, Worksop. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Worksop Town win 30.4%, draw 23.6%, South Shields win 46.0%. The pick is South Shields win. Over 2.5 goals: 60.2%. Both teams to score: 58.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.