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National League England Round 17 2026

Yeovil Town vs Boreham Wood

Yeovil Town Home · Elo 1,484
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Boreham Wood Away · Elo 1,680
Huish Park, Yeovil Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Boreham Wood win
Yeovil Town win
25.1%
Draw
24.2%
Boreham Wood winPick
50.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes54.7%
No45.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.556.6%
Under 2.543.4%

How much we know

Yeovil Town history83 matches
Boreham Wood history99 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (50.7%). Picks in that band won 55.6% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 4,146 matches.

Why Boreham Wood are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Boreham Wood are rated 196 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,680 against 1,484. On rating alone Boreham Wood would be expected to take 76% of the points on offer.

  • Boreham Wood score far more

    1.17 goals a game over 83 matches for Yeovil Town, against 2.18 over 99 for Boreham Wood.

  • Defences are close

    Yeovil Town concede 1.39 a game, Boreham Wood 1.30.

  • Boreham Wood games more often go over 2.5 goals

    52% of Yeovil Town matches, against 74% for Boreham Wood. The model puts this match at 57% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Yeovil Town
Boreham Wood@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1483.9
ELO
1679.7
83
ELO · Matches
99
1483.9
Current Team ELO
1679.7
1679.7
Current Opponent ELO
1483.9
-195.8
Current ELO Difference
195.8
0.24
Expected score
0.76
83
History Matches
99
-0.01
Residual Mean
0.09
48.95
Overperformance
57.67
0.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.25
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
2.60
1.40
Goals for per game
3.20
1.00
Goals against per game
1.40
20.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
2.60
1.70
Goals for per game
3.20
1.50
Goals against per game
1.40
30.0%
Win rate
80.0%
1.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
3.20
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.83
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.80
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.46
1.72
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.72
Overall performance9 signals
90
83
Matches
99
1.20
PPG
1.99
33.7%
Win rate
60.6%
19.3%
Draw rate
17.2%
47.0%
Loss rate
22.2%
73.5%
Over 1.5 rate
87.9%
51.8%
Over 2.5 rate
73.7%
19.3%
Over 3.5 rate
42.4%
1.58
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.86
Venue performance10 signals
100
39
Matches
46
1.33
PPG
1.70
35.9%
Win rate
50.0%
25.6%
Draw rate
19.6%
38.5%
Loss rate
30.4%
74.4%
Over 1.5 rate
93.5%
51.3%
Over 2.5 rate
78.3%
17.9%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
1.45
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.01
39
History Matches
46
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.17
Goals for per game
2.18
71.1%
Scoring rate
90.9%
53.0%
BTTS rate
59.6%
1.15
Goals for per game
2.13
74.4%
Scoring rate
91.3%
56.4%
BTTS rate
65.2%
1.67
Goals for per game
3.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
66.7%
BTTS rate
66.7%
83
History Matches
99
1.17
Goals Mean
2.18
1.03
Goals Std
1.37
71.1%
Scored 1+ rate
90.9%
31.3%
Scored 2+ rate
66.7%
12.0%
Scored 3+ rate
39.4%
1.15
Venue Goals Mean
2.13
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.39
Goals against per game
1.30
77.1%
Conceding rate
65.7%
1.36
Goals against per game
1.50
74.4%
Conceding rate
69.6%
0.67
Goals against per game
1.33
66.7%
Conceding rate
66.7%
83
History Matches
99
1.39
Conceded Mean
1.30
1.11
Conceded Std
1.22
41.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
41.4%
15.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
18.2%
1.36
Venue Conceded Mean
1.50
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
22.9%
Clean-sheet rate
34.3%
28.9%
Failed-to-score rate
9.1%
25.6%
Clean-sheet rate
30.4%
25.6%
Failed-to-score rate
8.7%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
22.9%
Clean-sheet rate
34.3%
28.9%
Failed-to-score rate
9.1%
25.6%
Clean-sheet rate
30.4%
25.6%
Failed-to-score rate
8.7%
22.9%
Clean-sheet rate
34.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
83
History Matches
99
0.95
Result entropy
0.86
1.58
Goal Difference Std
1.86
5.44
Stability score
14.41
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
82
Eligible Matches
98
23
Lead Matches
45
60.9%
Lead Win Rate
84.4%
0.70
Lead Points Retention
0.88
24
Trailing Matches
21
12.5%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
8.3%
Trailing Win Rate
19.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
82
Halftime Coverage Matches
98
0.56
First Half Goals For Mean
0.95
0.63
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.56
0.61
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.17
0.77
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.73
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
84.15
Rest days
84.15
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
10
Short Rest History Matches
8
1.10
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.00
62
Normal Rest History Matches
79
1.27
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.04
10
Long Rest History Matches
11
0.90
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.82
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
1.67
PPG
2.33
33.3%
Win rate
66.7%
66.7%
Draw rate
33.3%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
66.7%
1.41
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.25
3
Current Competition Matches
3
1.67
Current Competition PPG
2.33
1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.67
7
Competition Season Count
11
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
8
0.33
Portability PPG Std
0.60
0.94
Portability PPG Range
1.83
60.58
Portability Score
45.57
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
83
Clean History Matches
99
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-195.8
PPG-0.79
GF-1.01
GA0.08
PPG-0.67
PPG-0.36
PPG-1.40
PPG-1.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-16
Clean-sheet rate-0.11
Failed-to-score rate19.8%
History Matches-7
Clean-sheet rate-0.05
Failed-to-score rate16.9%
History Matches-16
Goals Mean-1.01
Goals Std-0.35
Scored 1+ rate-0.20
Scored 2+ rate-0.35
Scored 3+ rate-0.27
Venue Goals Mean-0.98
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.50
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.83
History Matches-16
Conceded Mean0.08
Conceded Std-0.11
Clean-sheet rate-0.11
Conceded 2+ rate0.00
Conceded 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Conceded Mean-0.14
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.40
History Matches-16
Result entropy0.09
Goal Difference Std-0.28
Stability score-8.97
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.54
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.00
Eligible Matches-16
Lead Matches-22
Lead Win Rate-0.24
Lead Points Retention-0.19
Trailing Matches3
Non-loss rate-0.21
Trailing Win Rate-0.11
Halftime Coverage Matches-16
First Half Goals For Mean-0.39
First Half Goals Against Mean0.07
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.56
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.03
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.67
Competition Season Count-4
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Portability PPG Std-0.27
Portability PPG Range-0.89
Portability Score15.02
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.90
Normal Rest History Matches-17
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.76
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.92
Current Team ELO-195.8
Current Opponent ELO195.8
Current ELO Difference-391.7
Expected score-0.51
History Matches-16
Residual Mean-0.11
Overperformance-8.72
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.18

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Yeovil Town

L
Chesterfield4–3Yeovil Town7 Nov · away
Pick: Chesterfield 44% · hit
L
FC Halifax Town2–0Yeovil Town31 Oct · away
Pick: FC Halifax Town 41% · hit
W
AFC Hornchurch1–2Yeovil Town27 Oct · away
Pick: AFC Hornchurch 44% · missed
L
Yeovil Town1–2Altrincham24 Oct · home
Pick: Yeovil Town 48% · missed
D
Leatherhead3–3Yeovil Town17 Oct · away
Pick: Yeovil Town 47% · missed

Boreham Wood

L
Boreham Wood0–3Wigan7 Nov · home
Pick: Boreham Wood 53% · missed
W
Boreham Wood4–3Hartlepool31 Oct · home
Pick: Boreham Wood 57% · hit
W
Woking1–2Boreham Wood27 Oct · away
Pick: Boreham Wood 62% · hit
W
Boreham Wood4–0AFC Fylde24 Oct · home
Pick: Boreham Wood 56% · hit
W
Boreham Wood7–1Middlesbrough U2120 Oct · home
Pick: Boreham Wood 42% · hit

About this match

Yeovil Town and Boreham Wood meet in National League on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. The match is played at Huish Park, Yeovil. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Yeovil Town win 25.1%, draw 24.2%, Boreham Wood win 50.7%. The pick is Boreham Wood win. Over 2.5 goals: 56.6%. Both teams to score: 54.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.