ScoreProb
Supreme Division Women Russia Round 25 2026

Zenit W vs CSKA Moskva W

Zenit W Home · Elo 1,655
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
CSKA Moskva W Away · Elo 1,660
Akademiya Zenit pole 5, Saint Petersburg Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Zenit W win
Zenit W winPick
46.8%
Draw
26.4%
CSKA Moskva W win
26.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes47.4%
No52.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.548.4%
Under 2.551.6%

How much we know

Zenit W history38 matches
CSKA Moskva W history40 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 13:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (46.8%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Zenit W are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,655 against 1,660. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    2.29 goals a game over 38 matches for Zenit W, against 2.30 over 40 for CSKA Moskva W.

  • Defences are close

    Zenit W concede 0.47 a game, CSKA Moskva W 0.48.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    55% of Zenit W matches, against 55% for CSKA Moskva W. The model puts this match at 48% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 9 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Zenit W
CSKA Moskva W@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1655.1
ELO
1659.6
38
ELO · Matches
40
1655.1
Current Team ELO
1659.6
1659.6
Current Opponent ELO
1655.1
-4.47
Current ELO Difference
4.47
0.49
Expected score
0.51
38
History Matches
40
0.20
Residual Mean
0.20
63.02
Overperformance
63.09
0.21
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.08
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.60
PPG
2.00
2.60
Goals for per game
1.80
0.40
Goals against per game
0.60
80.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
2.60
PPG
2.20
2.60
Goals for per game
2.00
0.40
Goals against per game
0.60
80.0%
Win rate
70.0%
2.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.00
1.36
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.55
0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.60
0.49
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.66
0.46
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
1.54
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.62
Overall performance9 signals
90
38
Matches
40
2.37
PPG
2.43
73.7%
Win rate
77.5%
15.8%
Draw rate
10.0%
10.5%
Loss rate
12.5%
68.4%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
55.3%
Over 2.5 rate
55.0%
36.8%
Over 3.5 rate
30.0%
1.98
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.92
Venue performance10 signals
100
19
Matches
20
2.47
PPG
2.30
78.9%
Win rate
75.0%
10.5%
Draw rate
5.0%
10.5%
Loss rate
20.0%
68.4%
Over 1.5 rate
70.0%
57.9%
Over 2.5 rate
55.0%
42.1%
Over 3.5 rate
30.0%
2.12
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.86
19
History Matches
20
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.29
Goals for per game
2.30
84.2%
Scoring rate
82.5%
31.6%
BTTS rate
27.5%
2.47
Goals for per game
2.15
89.5%
Scoring rate
80.0%
36.8%
BTTS rate
25.0%
2.71
Goals for per game
2.40
92.9%
Scoring rate
80.0%
35.7%
BTTS rate
26.7%
38
History Matches
40
2.29
Goals Mean
2.30
1.72
Goals Std
1.68
84.2%
Scored 1+ rate
82.5%
57.9%
Scored 2+ rate
70.0%
44.7%
Scored 3+ rate
45.0%
2.47
Venue Goals Mean
2.15
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.47
Goals against per game
0.48
36.8%
Conceding rate
40.0%
0.58
Goals against per game
0.60
42.1%
Conceding rate
45.0%
0.36
Goals against per game
0.53
35.7%
Conceding rate
40.0%
38
History Matches
40
0.47
Conceded Mean
0.48
0.79
Conceded Std
0.63
5.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
7.5%
2.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
0.0%
0.58
Venue Conceded Mean
0.60
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
63.2%
Clean-sheet rate
60.0%
15.8%
Failed-to-score rate
17.5%
57.9%
Clean-sheet rate
55.0%
10.5%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
64.3%
Clean-sheet rate
60.0%
7.1%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
63.2%
Clean-sheet rate
60.0%
15.8%
Failed-to-score rate
17.5%
57.9%
Clean-sheet rate
55.0%
10.5%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
63.2%
Clean-sheet rate
60.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
38
History Matches
40
0.69
Result entropy
0.63
1.98
Goal Difference Std
1.92
31.42
Stability score
37.40
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
38
Eligible Matches
40
24
Lead Matches
27
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
92.6%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
0.95
3
Trailing Matches
4
33.3%
Non-loss rate
50.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
50.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
38
Halftime Coverage Matches
40
1.29
First Half Goals For Mean
1.20
0.26
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.18
1.00
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.10
0.21
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.30
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
98.10
Rest days
90.08
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
16
Normal Rest History Matches
12
2.06
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.58
21
Long Rest History Matches
27
2.67
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.33
Competition & season17 signals
170
14
Matches
15
2.71
PPG
2.47
85.7%
Win rate
80.0%
14.3%
Draw rate
6.7%
0.0%
Loss rate
13.3%
85.7%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
64.3%
Over 2.5 rate
60.0%
42.9%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
1.49
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.93
14
Current Competition Matches
15
2.71
Current Competition PPG
2.47
2.36
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.87
2
Competition Season Count
3
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.27
Portability PPG Std
0.02
0.55
Portability PPG Range
0.03
64.62
Portability Score
96.77
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
38
Clean History Matches
40
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-4.47
PPG-0.06
GF-0.01
GA0.00
PPG0.25
PPG0.17
PPG0.60
PPG0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate3.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.02
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate2.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.09
History Matches-2
Goals Mean-0.01
Goals Std0.04
Scored 1+ rate1.7%
Scored 2+ rate-0.12
Scored 3+ rate0.00
Venue Goals Mean0.32
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.19
History Matches-2
Conceded Mean0.00
Conceded Std0.15
Clean-sheet rate3.2%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.02
Conceded 3+ rate2.6%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.02
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.17
History Matches-2
Result entropy0.06
Goal Difference Std0.06
Stability score-5.98
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.27
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.09
Eligible Matches-2
Lead Matches-3
Lead Win Rate7.4%
Lead Points Retention0.05
Trailing Matches-1
Non-loss rate-0.17
Trailing Win Rate-0.50
Halftime Coverage Matches-2
First Half Goals For Mean0.09
First Half Goals Against Mean0.09
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.10
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.09
Current Competition Matches-1
Current Competition PPG0.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.49
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.26
Portability PPG Range0.51
Portability Score-32.16
Rest days8.02
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches4
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.52
Long Rest History Matches-6
Long Rest Points Per Match0.33
Current Team ELO-4.47
Current Opponent ELO4.47
Current ELO Difference-8.94
Expected score-0.01
History Matches-2
Residual Mean0.00
Overperformance-0.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.13

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Zenit W

W
Zenit W3–1Lokomotiv Moskva W31 Oct · home
Pick: Zenit W 55% · hit
W
Krylya Sovetov W0–1Zenit W24 Oct · away
Pick: Zenit W 56% · hit
L
Zenit W1–2Chertanovo W18 Oct · home
Pick: Zenit W 81% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

CSKA Moskva W

W
CSKA Moskva W4–2Krasnodar W30 Oct · home
Pick: CSKA Moskva W 82% · hit
W
Dinamo Moskva W1–2CSKA Moskva W24 Oct · away
Pick: CSKA Moskva W 60% · hit
W
CSKA Moskva W2–0Ryazan W18 Oct · home
Pick: CSKA Moskva W 86% · hit
W
CSKA Moskva W4–1Rubin Kazan W29 Aug · home
Pick: CSKA Moskva W 81% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Zenit W and CSKA Moskva W meet in Supreme Division Women on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 13:30 UTC. The match is played at Akademiya Zenit pole 5, Saint Petersburg. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Zenit W win 46.8%, draw 26.4%, CSKA Moskva W win 26.8%. The pick is Zenit W win. Over 2.5 goals: 48.4%. Both teams to score: 47.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.