ScoreProb
Supreme Division Women Russia Round 25 2026

Zvezda Perm W vs Dinamo Moskva W

Zvezda Perm W Home · Elo 1,395
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Dinamo Moskva W Away · Elo 1,505
Zvezda Stadium, Perm Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 3 Nov, 07:46 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Dinamo Moskva W win
Zvezda Perm W win
26.0%
Draw
30.1%
Dinamo Moskva W winPick
43.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes41.8%
No58.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.543.5%
Under 2.556.5%

How much we know

Zvezda Perm W history40 matches
Dinamo Moskva W history38 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 4 d 0 h ahead
    3 Nov · 07:46 UTC
  2. Re-published 4 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 08:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,274 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,668
40–49% Won 45.5% · said 44.8% · n 6,228
50–59% Won 55.7% · said 54.4% · n 3,755
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,872
70–79% Won 76.3% · said 73.9% · n 587
80%+ Won 83.5% · said 84.5% · n 164
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (43.9%). Picks in that band won 45.5% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,228 matches.

Why Dinamo Moskva W are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Dinamo Moskva W are rated 109 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,505 against 1,395. On rating alone Dinamo Moskva W would be expected to take 65% of the points on offer.

  • Dinamo Moskva W score far more

    0.63 goals a game over 40 matches for Zvezda Perm W, against 1.26 over 38 for Dinamo Moskva W.

  • Dinamo Moskva W concede fewer

    Zvezda Perm W concede 1.55 a game, Dinamo Moskva W 1.08.

  • Dinamo Moskva W games more often go over 2.5 goals

    35% of Zvezda Perm W matches, against 45% for Dinamo Moskva W. The model puts this match at 44% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 9 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Zvezda Perm W
Dinamo Moskva W@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1395.3
ELO
1504.7
40
ELO · Matches
38
1395.3
Current Team ELO
1504.7
1504.7
Current Opponent ELO
1395.3
-109.4
Current ELO Difference
109.4
0.35
Expected score
0.65
40
History Matches
38
-0.12
Residual Mean
0.01
41.74
Overperformance
50.42
-0.12
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.01
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
2.00
0.60
Goals for per game
1.80
1.40
Goals against per game
0.40
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
0.60
PPG
1.60
0.50
Goals for per game
1.20
1.80
Goals against per game
0.60
10.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
0.67
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.47
1.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.60
1.17
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.66
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.49
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.80
Overall performance9 signals
90
40
Matches
38
0.80
PPG
1.47
20.0%
Win rate
44.7%
20.0%
Draw rate
13.2%
60.0%
Loss rate
42.1%
62.5%
Over 1.5 rate
65.8%
35.0%
Over 2.5 rate
44.7%
17.5%
Over 3.5 rate
21.1%
1.47
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.88
Venue performance10 signals
100
21
Matches
19
0.90
PPG
1.37
23.8%
Win rate
42.1%
19.0%
Draw rate
10.5%
57.1%
Loss rate
47.4%
52.4%
Over 1.5 rate
63.2%
28.6%
Over 2.5 rate
47.4%
9.5%
Over 3.5 rate
15.8%
1.29
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.66
21
History Matches
19
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
0.63
Goals for per game
1.26
47.5%
Scoring rate
68.4%
35.0%
BTTS rate
39.5%
0.67
Goals for per game
1.05
47.6%
Scoring rate
73.7%
33.3%
BTTS rate
42.1%
0.73
Goals for per game
0.93
46.7%
Scoring rate
50.0%
33.3%
BTTS rate
14.3%
40
History Matches
38
0.63
Goals Mean
1.26
0.76
Goals Std
1.29
47.5%
Scored 1+ rate
68.4%
12.5%
Scored 2+ rate
28.9%
2.5%
Scored 3+ rate
18.4%
0.67
Venue Goals Mean
1.05
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.55
Goals against per game
1.08
80.0%
Conceding rate
63.2%
1.24
Goals against per game
1.21
81.0%
Conceding rate
63.2%
1.53
Goals against per game
0.86
80.0%
Conceding rate
57.1%
40
History Matches
38
1.55
Conceded Mean
1.08
1.22
Conceded Std
1.06
45.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
31.6%
20.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
10.5%
1.24
Venue Conceded Mean
1.21
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
36.8%
52.5%
Failed-to-score rate
31.6%
19.0%
Clean-sheet rate
36.8%
52.4%
Failed-to-score rate
26.3%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
42.9%
53.3%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
36.8%
52.5%
Failed-to-score rate
31.6%
19.0%
Clean-sheet rate
36.8%
52.4%
Failed-to-score rate
26.3%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
36.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
40
History Matches
38
0.86
Result entropy
0.90
1.47
Goal Difference Std
1.88
13.50
Stability score
9.80
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
40
Eligible Matches
38
7
Lead Matches
14
57.1%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
0.67
Lead Points Retention
1.00
14
Trailing Matches
12
7.1%
Non-loss rate
8.3%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
40
Halftime Coverage Matches
38
0.33
First Half Goals For Mean
0.58
0.60
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.55
0.30
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.68
0.95
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.53
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
91.00
Rest days
90.92
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
13
Normal Rest History Matches
14
1.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.50
26
Long Rest History Matches
23
0.73
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.39
Competition & season17 signals
170
15
Matches
14
1.00
PPG
1.36
26.7%
Win rate
42.9%
20.0%
Draw rate
7.1%
53.3%
Loss rate
50.0%
73.3%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
21.4%
20.0%
Over 3.5 rate
7.1%
1.64
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.87
15
Current Competition Matches
14
1.00
Current Competition PPG
1.36
-0.80
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.07
3
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.15
Portability PPG Std
0.09
0.29
Portability PPG Range
0.18
77.42
Portability Score
84.42
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
40
Clean History Matches
38
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-109.4
PPG-0.67
GF-0.64
GA0.47
PPG-0.36
PPG-0.46
PPG-1.20
PPG-1.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate-0.17
Failed-to-score rate20.9%
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate-0.18
Failed-to-score rate26.1%
History Matches2
Goals Mean-0.64
Goals Std-0.53
Scored 1+ rate-0.21
Scored 2+ rate-0.16
Scored 3+ rate-0.16
Venue Goals Mean-0.39
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.80
History Matches2
Conceded Mean0.47
Conceded Std0.16
Clean-sheet rate-0.17
Conceded 2+ rate13.4%
Conceded 3+ rate9.5%
Venue Conceded Mean0.03
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.50
History Matches2
Result entropy-0.04
Goal Difference Std-0.40
Stability score3.70
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.04
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.31
Eligible Matches2
Lead Matches-7
Lead Win Rate-0.43
Lead Points Retention-0.33
Trailing Matches2
Non-loss rate-0.01
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches2
First Half Goals For Mean-0.25
First Half Goals Against Mean0.05
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.38
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.42
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG-0.36
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.87
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.05
Portability PPG Range0.11
Portability Score-7.00
Rest days0.08
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.50
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.66
Current Team ELO-109.4
Current Opponent ELO109.4
Current ELO Difference-218.7
Expected score-0.30
History Matches2
Residual Mean-0.13
Overperformance-8.69
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.12

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Zvezda Perm W

L
Ryazan W2–0Zvezda Perm W31 Oct · away
Pick: Ryazan W 37% · hit
W
Yenisey W0–1Zvezda Perm W18 Oct · away
Pick: Zvezda Perm W 52% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Dinamo Moskva W

L
Dinamo Moskva W1–2CSKA Moskva W24 Oct · home
Pick: CSKA Moskva W 60% · hit
D
Lokomotiv Moskva W1–1Dinamo Moskva W18 Oct · away
Pick: Lokomotiv Moskva W 58% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Zvezda Perm W and Dinamo Moskva W meet in Supreme Division Women on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 08:00 UTC. The match is played at Zvezda Stadium, Perm. ScoreProb published its prediction on 3 Nov, 07:46 UTC: Zvezda Perm W win 26.0%, draw 30.1%, Dinamo Moskva W win 43.9%. The pick is Dinamo Moskva W win. Over 2.5 goals: 43.5%. Both teams to score: 41.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.