ScoreProb
Supreme Division Women Russia Round 25 2026

Chertanovo W vs Rubin Kazan W

Chertanovo W Home · Elo 1,486
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Rubin Kazan W Away · Elo 1,443
Chertanovo Arena, Moscow Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Chertanovo W win
Chertanovo W winPick
38.2%
Draw
26.9%
Rubin Kazan W win
34.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes54.1%
No45.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.553.6%
Under 2.546.4%

How much we know

Chertanovo W history39 matches
Rubin Kazan W history39 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 14:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (38.2%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Chertanovo W are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Chertanovo W are rated 44 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,486 against 1,443. On rating alone Chertanovo W would be expected to take 56% of the points on offer.

  • Chertanovo W score more

    1.23 goals a game over 39 matches for Chertanovo W, against 0.95 over 39 for Rubin Kazan W.

  • Chertanovo W concede fewer

    Chertanovo W concede 1.54 a game, Rubin Kazan W 1.74.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    51% of Chertanovo W matches, against 54% for Rubin Kazan W. The model puts this match at 54% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 8 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Chertanovo W
Rubin Kazan W@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1486.5
ELO
1442.7
39
ELO · Matches
39
1486.5
Current Team ELO
1442.7
1442.7
Current Opponent ELO
1486.5
43.75
Current ELO Difference
-43.75
0.56
Expected score
0.44
39
History Matches
39
-0.02
Residual Mean
-0.07
48.74
Overperformance
45.46
0.11
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.14
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
1.60
1.40
Goals for per game
1.20
1.60
Goals against per game
1.00
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.70
PPG
1.30
1.70
Goals for per game
1.10
1.60
Goals against per game
1.30
50.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.10
1.42
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.83
1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
1.43
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.10
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
2.43
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.40
Overall performance9 signals
90
39
Matches
39
1.31
PPG
0.92
38.5%
Win rate
20.5%
15.4%
Draw rate
30.8%
46.2%
Loss rate
48.7%
69.2%
Over 1.5 rate
74.4%
51.3%
Over 2.5 rate
53.8%
30.8%
Over 3.5 rate
38.5%
2.17
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.90
Venue performance10 signals
100
19
Matches
19
0.79
PPG
0.68
21.1%
Win rate
10.5%
15.8%
Draw rate
36.8%
63.2%
Loss rate
52.6%
63.2%
Over 1.5 rate
78.9%
47.4%
Over 2.5 rate
57.9%
31.6%
Over 3.5 rate
42.1%
2.18
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.84
19
History Matches
19
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.23
Goals for per game
0.95
56.4%
Scoring rate
64.1%
41.0%
BTTS rate
48.7%
0.74
Goals for per game
0.74
36.8%
Scoring rate
52.6%
31.6%
BTTS rate
47.4%
1.33
Goals for per game
1.27
60.0%
Scoring rate
66.7%
46.7%
BTTS rate
46.7%
39
History Matches
39
1.23
Goals Mean
0.95
1.42
Goals Std
0.90
56.4%
Scored 1+ rate
64.1%
33.3%
Scored 2+ rate
25.6%
20.5%
Scored 3+ rate
2.6%
0.74
Venue Goals Mean
0.74
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.54
Goals against per game
1.74
76.9%
Conceding rate
69.2%
1.89
Goals against per game
2.05
78.9%
Conceding rate
78.9%
1.67
Goals against per game
1.20
86.7%
Conceding rate
60.0%
39
History Matches
39
1.54
Conceded Mean
1.74
1.45
Conceded Std
1.56
38.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
53.8%
20.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
30.8%
1.89
Venue Conceded Mean
2.05
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
23.1%
Clean-sheet rate
30.8%
43.6%
Failed-to-score rate
35.9%
21.1%
Clean-sheet rate
21.1%
63.2%
Failed-to-score rate
47.4%
13.3%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
40.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
23.1%
Clean-sheet rate
30.8%
43.6%
Failed-to-score rate
35.9%
21.1%
Clean-sheet rate
21.1%
63.2%
Failed-to-score rate
47.4%
23.1%
Clean-sheet rate
30.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
39
History Matches
39
0.92
Result entropy
0.94
2.17
Goal Difference Std
1.90
7.85
Stability score
5.52
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
39
Eligible Matches
39
8
Lead Matches
7
75.0%
Lead Win Rate
85.7%
0.83
Lead Points Retention
0.90
17
Trailing Matches
17
11.8%
Non-loss rate
11.8%
5.9%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
39
Halftime Coverage Matches
39
0.41
First Half Goals For Mean
0.38
0.79
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.74
0.82
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.56
0.74
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.00
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
91.25
Rest days
91.00
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
15
Normal Rest History Matches
13
1.07
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.15
23
Long Rest History Matches
25
1.39
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.80
Competition & season17 signals
170
15
Matches
15
1.33
PPG
1.27
40.0%
Win rate
26.7%
13.3%
Draw rate
46.7%
46.7%
Loss rate
26.7%
73.3%
Over 1.5 rate
73.3%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
46.7%
40.0%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
2.21
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.57
15
Current Competition Matches
15
1.33
Current Competition PPG
1.27
-0.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.07
2
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.02
Portability PPG Std
0.28
0.04
Portability PPG Range
0.56
96.00
Portability Score
64.17
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
39
Clean History Matches
39
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO43.75
PPG0.38
GF0.28
GA-0.21
PPG0.07
PPG0.11
PPG0.00
PPG0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate-0.08
Failed-to-score rate7.7%
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate0.0%
Failed-to-score rate15.8%
History Matches0
Goals Mean0.28
Goals Std0.52
Scored 1+ rate-0.08
Scored 2+ rate7.7%
Scored 3+ rate17.9%
Venue Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std0.59
History Matches0
Conceded Mean-0.21
Conceded Std-0.12
Clean-sheet rate-0.08
Conceded 2+ rate-0.15
Conceded 3+ rate-0.10
Venue Conceded Mean-0.16
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.33
History Matches0
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std0.28
Stability score2.33
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.03
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches1
Lead Win Rate-0.11
Lead Points Retention-0.07
Trailing Matches0
Non-loss rate0.0%
Trailing Win Rate5.9%
Halftime Coverage Matches0
First Half Goals For Mean0.03
First Half Goals Against Mean0.05
Second Half Goals For Mean0.26
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.26
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.07
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.40
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.26
Portability PPG Range-0.52
Portability Score31.83
Rest days0.25
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.09
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.59
Current Team ELO43.75
Current Opponent ELO-43.75
Current ELO Difference87.50
Expected score0.13
History Matches0
Residual Mean0.05
Overperformance3.27
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.04

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Chertanovo W

W
Chertanovo W4–0Rostov W31 Oct · home
Pick: Chertanovo W 65% · hit
L
Spartak Moskva W3–1Chertanovo W24 Oct · away
Pick: Spartak Moskva W 75% · hit
W
Zenit W1–2Chertanovo W18 Oct · away
Pick: Zenit W 81% · missed
L
Lokomotiv Moskva W2–1Chertanovo W29 Aug · away
Pick: Lokomotiv Moskva W 68% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Rubin Kazan W

D
Rostov W1–1Rubin Kazan W24 Oct · away
Pick: Rubin Kazan W 53% · missed
L
CSKA Moskva W4–1Rubin Kazan W29 Aug · away
Pick: CSKA Moskva W 81% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Chertanovo W and Rubin Kazan W meet in Supreme Division Women on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 14:00 UTC. The match is played at Chertanovo Arena, Moscow. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Chertanovo W win 38.2%, draw 26.9%, Rubin Kazan W win 34.9%. The pick is Chertanovo W win. Over 2.5 goals: 53.6%. Both teams to score: 54.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.