ScoreProb
Supreme Division Women Russia Round 25 2026

Lokomotiv Moskva W vs Spartak Moskva W

Lokomotiv Moskva W Home · Elo 1,568
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Spartak Moskva W Away · Elo 1,673
Sapsan Arena, Moscow Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Spartak Moskva W win
Lokomotiv Moskva W win
31.6%
Draw
28.9%
Spartak Moskva W winPick
39.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes46.1%
No53.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.546.6%
Under 2.553.4%

How much we know

Lokomotiv Moskva W history38 matches
Spartak Moskva W history40 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 0 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (39.4%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Spartak Moskva W are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Spartak Moskva W are rated 105 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,673 against 1,568. On rating alone Spartak Moskva W would be expected to take 65% of the points on offer.

  • Spartak Moskva W score more

    1.71 goals a game over 38 matches for Lokomotiv Moskva W, against 2.48 over 40 for Spartak Moskva W.

  • Spartak Moskva W concede fewer

    Lokomotiv Moskva W concede 0.79 a game, Spartak Moskva W 0.55.

  • Spartak Moskva W games more often go over 2.5 goals

    39% of Lokomotiv Moskva W matches, against 48% for Spartak Moskva W. The model puts this match at 47% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 10 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Lokomotiv Moskva W
Spartak Moskva W@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1567.5
ELO
1672.7
38
ELO · Matches
40
1567.5
Current Team ELO
1672.7
1672.7
Current Opponent ELO
1567.5
-105.1
Current ELO Difference
105.1
0.35
Expected score
0.65
38
History Matches
40
0.09
Residual Mean
0.22
55.77
Overperformance
64.35
0.11
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.07
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
2.00
1.00
Goals for per game
2.40
0.40
Goals against per game
1.00
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
2.00
PPG
2.10
1.50
Goals for per game
1.90
0.40
Goals against per game
0.70
60.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.90
1.12
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.45
0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.70
0.66
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.90
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.51
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.89
Overall performance9 signals
90
38
Matches
40
1.79
PPG
2.48
55.3%
Win rate
75.0%
13.2%
Draw rate
22.5%
31.6%
Loss rate
2.5%
65.8%
Over 1.5 rate
77.5%
39.5%
Over 2.5 rate
47.5%
18.4%
Over 3.5 rate
37.5%
2.14
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.77
Venue performance10 signals
100
19
Matches
19
1.68
PPG
2.53
52.6%
Win rate
78.9%
10.5%
Draw rate
15.8%
36.8%
Loss rate
5.3%
73.7%
Over 1.5 rate
78.9%
52.6%
Over 2.5 rate
42.1%
21.1%
Over 3.5 rate
36.8%
2.53
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.63
19
History Matches
19
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.71
Goals for per game
2.48
76.3%
Scoring rate
95.0%
23.7%
BTTS rate
42.5%
1.89
Goals for per game
2.42
73.7%
Scoring rate
94.7%
21.1%
BTTS rate
47.4%
1.79
Goals for per game
2.33
85.7%
Scoring rate
100.0%
28.6%
BTTS rate
60.0%
38
History Matches
40
1.71
Goals Mean
2.48
1.65
Goals Std
1.66
76.3%
Scored 1+ rate
95.0%
44.7%
Scored 2+ rate
62.5%
23.7%
Scored 3+ rate
42.5%
1.89
Venue Goals Mean
2.42
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.79
Goals against per game
0.55
44.7%
Conceding rate
42.5%
0.79
Goals against per game
0.58
47.4%
Conceding rate
47.4%
0.57
Goals against per game
0.73
35.7%
Conceding rate
60.0%
38
History Matches
40
0.79
Conceded Mean
0.55
1.06
Conceded Std
0.77
23.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
7.5%
7.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
5.0%
0.79
Venue Conceded Mean
0.58
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
55.3%
Clean-sheet rate
57.5%
23.7%
Failed-to-score rate
5.0%
52.6%
Clean-sheet rate
52.6%
26.3%
Failed-to-score rate
5.3%
64.3%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
55.3%
Clean-sheet rate
57.5%
23.7%
Failed-to-score rate
5.0%
52.6%
Clean-sheet rate
52.6%
26.3%
Failed-to-score rate
5.3%
55.3%
Clean-sheet rate
57.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
38
History Matches
40
0.87
Result entropy
0.59
2.14
Goal Difference Std
1.77
12.74
Stability score
41.42
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
38
Eligible Matches
40
22
Lead Matches
17
77.3%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
0.82
Lead Points Retention
1.00
5
Trailing Matches
4
0.0%
Non-loss rate
75.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
38
Halftime Coverage Matches
40
0.87
First Half Goals For Mean
0.88
0.26
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.35
0.84
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.60
0.53
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.20
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
89.89
Rest days
90.70
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
16
Normal Rest History Matches
12
1.94
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.50
21
Long Rest History Matches
27
1.76
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.44
Competition & season17 signals
170
14
Matches
15
1.93
PPG
2.27
57.1%
Win rate
66.7%
21.4%
Draw rate
26.7%
21.4%
Loss rate
6.7%
71.4%
Over 1.5 rate
86.7%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
46.7%
14.3%
Over 3.5 rate
40.0%
1.78
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.78
14
Current Competition Matches
15
1.93
Current Competition PPG
2.27
1.21
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.60
2
Competition Season Count
4
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.11
Portability PPG Std
0.19
0.22
Portability PPG Range
0.39
81.95
Portability Score
72.18
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
38
Clean History Matches
40
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-105.1
PPG-0.69
GF-0.76
GA0.24
PPG-0.34
PPG-0.84
PPG-0.40
PPG-0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Failed-to-score rate18.7%
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate0.0%
Failed-to-score rate21.1%
History Matches-2
Goals Mean-0.76
Goals Std-0.01
Scored 1+ rate-0.19
Scored 2+ rate-0.18
Scored 3+ rate-0.19
Venue Goals Mean-0.53
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.33
History Matches-2
Conceded Mean0.24
Conceded Std0.28
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Conceded 2+ rate16.2%
Conceded 3+ rate2.9%
Venue Conceded Mean0.21
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.24
History Matches-2
Result entropy0.29
Goal Difference Std0.38
Stability score-28.67
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.37
Eligible Matches-2
Lead Matches5
Lead Win Rate-0.23
Lead Points Retention-0.18
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate-0.75
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-2
First Half Goals For Mean-0.01
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.09
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.76
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.33
Current Competition Matches-1
Current Competition PPG-0.34
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.39
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.08
Portability PPG Range-0.17
Portability Score9.78
Rest days-0.81
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches4
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.56
Long Rest History Matches-6
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.68
Current Team ELO-105.1
Current Opponent ELO105.1
Current ELO Difference-210.3
Expected score-0.29
History Matches-2
Residual Mean-0.13
Overperformance-8.57
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.04

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Lokomotiv Moskva W

L
Zenit W3–1Lokomotiv Moskva W31 Oct · away
Pick: Zenit W 55% · hit
W
Krasnodar W0–1Lokomotiv Moskva W24 Oct · away
Pick: Lokomotiv Moskva W 53% · hit
D
Lokomotiv Moskva W1–1Dinamo Moskva W18 Oct · home
Pick: Lokomotiv Moskva W 58% · missed
W
Lokomotiv Moskva W2–1Chertanovo W29 Aug · home
Pick: Lokomotiv Moskva W 68% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Spartak Moskva W

W
Krylya Sovetov W0–2Spartak Moskva W31 Oct · away
Pick: Spartak Moskva W 51% · hit
W
Spartak Moskva W3–1Chertanovo W24 Oct · home
Pick: Spartak Moskva W 75% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Lokomotiv Moskva W and Spartak Moskva W meet in Supreme Division Women on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 08:45 UTC. The match is played at Sapsan Arena, Moscow. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Lokomotiv Moskva W win 31.6%, draw 28.9%, Spartak Moskva W win 39.4%. The pick is Spartak Moskva W win. Over 2.5 goals: 46.6%. Both teams to score: 46.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.