ScoreProb
Supreme Division Women Russia Round 25 2026

Krasnodar W vs Yenisey W

Krasnodar W Home · Elo 1,479
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Yenisey W Away · Elo 1,305
Malaya Arena, Krasnodar Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Krasnodar W win
Krasnodar W winPick
76.0%
Draw
14.2%
Yenisey W win
9.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes40.9%
No59.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.558.2%
Under 2.541.8%

How much we know

Krasnodar W history39 matches
Yenisey W history38 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 0 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 09:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,274 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,668
40–49% Won 45.5% · said 44.8% · n 6,228
50–59% Won 55.7% · said 54.4% · n 3,755
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,872
70–79% Won 76.3% · said 73.9% · n 587
80%+ Won 83.5% · said 84.5% · n 164
This pick sits in the 70–79% band (76.0%). Picks in that band won 76.3% of the time, and the model said 73.9% on average, over 587 matches.

Why Krasnodar W are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Krasnodar W are rated 174 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,479 against 1,305. On rating alone Krasnodar W would be expected to take 73% of the points on offer.

  • Krasnodar W score far more

    1.00 goals a game over 39 matches for Krasnodar W, against 0.37 over 38 for Yenisey W.

  • Krasnodar W concede fewer

    Krasnodar W concede 1.15 a game, Yenisey W 2.68.

  • Yenisey W games more often go over 2.5 goals

    38% of Krasnodar W matches, against 55% for Yenisey W. The model puts this match at 58% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 9 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Krasnodar W
Yenisey W@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1479.3
ELO
1304.9
39
ELO · Matches
38
1479.3
Current Team ELO
1304.9
1304.9
Current Opponent ELO
1479.3
174.4
Current ELO Difference
-174.4
0.73
Expected score
0.27
39
History Matches
38
-0.03
Residual Mean
-0.26
47.76
Overperformance
33.24
-0.26
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.15
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.40
PPG
0.20
0.60
Goals for per game
0.40
1.80
Goals against per game
3.20
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
0.60
PPG
0.20
0.70
Goals for per game
0.30
1.80
Goals against per game
2.50
10.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.30
0.64
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.64
1.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.50
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.57
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.46
1.51
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.72
Overall performance9 signals
90
39
Matches
38
1.36
PPG
0.21
38.5%
Win rate
2.6%
20.5%
Draw rate
13.2%
41.0%
Loss rate
84.2%
61.5%
Over 1.5 rate
71.1%
38.5%
Over 2.5 rate
55.3%
25.6%
Over 3.5 rate
34.2%
1.83
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.10
Venue performance10 signals
100
18
Matches
20
1.67
PPG
0.25
55.6%
Win rate
5.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
10.0%
44.4%
Loss rate
85.0%
77.8%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
55.6%
Over 2.5 rate
55.0%
38.9%
Over 3.5 rate
40.0%
2.31
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.53
18
History Matches
20
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.00
Goals for per game
0.37
59.0%
Scoring rate
28.9%
33.3%
BTTS rate
26.3%
1.44
Goals for per game
0.30
66.7%
Scoring rate
20.0%
33.3%
BTTS rate
15.0%
0.80
Goals for per game
0.40
53.3%
Scoring rate
33.3%
40.0%
BTTS rate
33.3%
39
History Matches
38
1.00
Goals Mean
0.37
1.11
Goals Std
0.62
59.0%
Scored 1+ rate
28.9%
23.1%
Scored 2+ rate
7.9%
15.4%
Scored 3+ rate
0.0%
1.44
Venue Goals Mean
0.30
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.15
Goals against per game
2.68
61.5%
Conceding rate
89.5%
1.33
Goals against per game
3.00
66.7%
Conceding rate
90.0%
1.67
Goals against per game
2.47
66.7%
Conceding rate
86.7%
39
History Matches
38
1.15
Conceded Mean
2.68
1.21
Conceded Std
2.03
30.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
63.2%
17.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
50.0%
1.33
Venue Conceded Mean
3.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
38.5%
Clean-sheet rate
10.5%
41.0%
Failed-to-score rate
71.1%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
10.0%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
80.0%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
13.3%
46.7%
Failed-to-score rate
66.7%
38.5%
Clean-sheet rate
10.5%
41.0%
Failed-to-score rate
71.1%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
10.0%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
80.0%
38.5%
Clean-sheet rate
10.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
39
History Matches
38
0.96
Result entropy
0.46
1.83
Goal Difference Std
2.10
3.70
Stability score
53.82
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
39
Eligible Matches
38
9
Lead Matches
2
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
50.0%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
0.50
10
Trailing Matches
21
0.0%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
39
Halftime Coverage Matches
38
0.41
First Half Goals For Mean
0.21
0.54
First Half Goals Against Mean
1.24
0.59
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.16
0.62
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.45
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
90.71
Rest days
91.13
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
9
Normal Rest History Matches
15
1.67
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.27
29
Long Rest History Matches
22
1.21
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.18
Competition & season17 signals
170
15
Matches
15
0.73
PPG
0.20
13.3%
Win rate
0.0%
33.3%
Draw rate
20.0%
53.3%
Loss rate
80.0%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
73.3%
46.7%
Over 2.5 rate
60.0%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
40.0%
2.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.61
15
Current Competition Matches
15
0.73
Current Competition PPG
0.20
-0.87
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-2.07
2
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.51
Portability PPG Std
0.01
1.02
Portability PPG Range
0.02
49.59
Portability Score
98.29
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
39
Clean History Matches
38
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO174.4
PPG1.15
GF0.63
GA-1.53
PPG0.53
PPG1.42
PPG0.20
PPG0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate27.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.30
History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate23.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.47
History Matches1
Goals Mean0.63
Goals Std0.48
Scored 1+ rate30.0%
Scored 2+ rate15.2%
Scored 3+ rate15.4%
Venue Goals Mean1.14
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std0.00
History Matches1
Conceded Mean-1.53
Conceded Std-0.82
Clean-sheet rate27.9%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.32
Conceded 3+ rate-0.32
Venue Conceded Mean-1.67
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.17
History Matches1
Result entropy0.50
Goal Difference Std-0.27
Stability score-50.12
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.36
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.21
Eligible Matches1
Lead Matches7
Lead Win Rate50.0%
Lead Points Retention0.50
Trailing Matches-11
Non-loss rate0.0%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches1
First Half Goals For Mean0.20
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.70
Second Half Goals For Mean0.43
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.83
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.53
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.20
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.50
Portability PPG Range1.00
Portability Score-48.70
Rest days-0.42
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-6
Normal Rest Points Per Match1.40
Long Rest History Matches7
Long Rest Points Per Match1.03
Current Team ELO174.4
Current Opponent ELO-174.4
Current ELO Difference348.8
Expected score0.46
History Matches1
Residual Mean0.22
Overperformance14.52
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.12

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Krasnodar W

L
CSKA Moskva W4–2Krasnodar W30 Oct · away
Pick: CSKA Moskva W 82% · hit
L
Krasnodar W0–1Lokomotiv Moskva W24 Oct · home
Pick: Lokomotiv Moskva W 53% · hit
W
Krasnodar W1–0Krylya Sovetov W18 Oct · home
Pick: Krylya Sovetov W 38% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Yenisey W

L
Yenisey W1–3Ryazan W24 Oct · home
Pick: Ryazan W 51% · hit
L
Yenisey W0–1Zvezda Perm W18 Oct · home
Pick: Zvezda Perm W 52% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Krasnodar W and Yenisey W meet in Supreme Division Women on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 09:00 UTC. The match is played at Malaya Arena, Krasnodar. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Krasnodar W win 76.0%, draw 14.2%, Yenisey W win 9.8%. The pick is Krasnodar W win. Over 2.5 goals: 58.2%. Both teams to score: 40.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.