ScoreProb
Supreme Division Women Russia Round 25 2026

Rostov W vs Krylya Sovetov W

Rostov W Home · Elo 1,370
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Krylya Sovetov W Away · Elo 1,547
Stadion Lokomotiv Rostov na Donu Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 3 Nov, 07:46 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Krylya Sovetov W win
Rostov W win
12.0%
Draw
17.9%
Krylya Sovetov W winPick
70.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes37.6%
No62.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.545.9%
Under 2.554.1%

How much we know

Rostov W history39 matches
Krylya Sovetov W history39 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 4 d 4 h ahead
    3 Nov · 07:46 UTC
  2. Re-published 4 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 70–79% band (70.1%). Picks in that band won 76.2% of the time, and the model said 73.9% on average, over 583 matches.

Why Krylya Sovetov W are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Krylya Sovetov W are rated 177 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,547 against 1,370. On rating alone Krylya Sovetov W would be expected to take 74% of the points on offer.

  • Krylya Sovetov W score far more

    0.36 goals a game over 39 matches for Rostov W, against 1.13 over 39 for Krylya Sovetov W.

  • Krylya Sovetov W concede fewer

    Rostov W concede 1.97 a game, Krylya Sovetov W 1.00.

  • Rostov W games more often go over 2.5 goals

    41% of Rostov W matches, against 28% for Krylya Sovetov W. The model puts this match at 46% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 8 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Rostov W
Krylya Sovetov W@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1369.9
ELO
1547.3
39
ELO · Matches
39
1369.9
Current Team ELO
1547.3
1547.3
Current Opponent ELO
1369.9
-177.5
Current ELO Difference
177.5
0.26
Expected score
0.74
39
History Matches
39
-0.17
Residual Mean
0.06
39.04
Overperformance
53.79
-0.11
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.06
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.40
PPG
2.00
0.00
Goals for per game
2.40
2.20
Goals against per game
1.00
0.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
0.50
PPG
1.80
0.10
Goals for per game
1.70
2.00
Goals against per game
0.80
10.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.70
0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.27
2.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.80
1.61
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.17
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.76
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.07
Overall performance9 signals
90
39
Matches
39
0.56
PPG
1.67
12.8%
Win rate
48.7%
17.9%
Draw rate
20.5%
69.2%
Loss rate
30.8%
71.8%
Over 1.5 rate
59.0%
41.0%
Over 2.5 rate
28.2%
17.9%
Over 3.5 rate
20.5%
1.82
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.96
Venue performance10 signals
100
19
Matches
20
0.47
PPG
1.15
5.3%
Win rate
30.0%
31.6%
Draw rate
25.0%
63.2%
Loss rate
45.0%
63.2%
Over 1.5 rate
55.0%
31.6%
Over 2.5 rate
35.0%
10.5%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
1.63
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.03
19
History Matches
20
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
0.36
Goals for per game
1.13
25.6%
Scoring rate
69.2%
17.9%
BTTS rate
30.8%
0.26
Goals for per game
0.80
21.1%
Scoring rate
60.0%
15.8%
BTTS rate
35.0%
0.20
Goals for per game
1.53
13.3%
Scoring rate
86.7%
0.0%
BTTS rate
33.3%
39
History Matches
39
0.36
Goals Mean
1.13
0.66
Goals Std
1.11
25.6%
Scored 1+ rate
69.2%
10.3%
Scored 2+ rate
25.6%
0.0%
Scored 3+ rate
10.3%
0.26
Venue Goals Mean
0.80
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.97
Goals against per game
1.00
82.1%
Conceding rate
53.8%
1.74
Goals against per game
1.45
78.9%
Conceding rate
65.0%
2.20
Goals against per game
1.20
73.3%
Conceding rate
46.7%
39
History Matches
39
1.97
Conceded Mean
1.00
1.51
Conceded Std
1.34
59.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
20.5%
30.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
12.8%
1.74
Venue Conceded Mean
1.45
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
17.9%
Clean-sheet rate
46.2%
74.4%
Failed-to-score rate
30.8%
21.1%
Clean-sheet rate
35.0%
78.9%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
26.7%
Clean-sheet rate
53.3%
86.7%
Failed-to-score rate
13.3%
17.9%
Clean-sheet rate
46.2%
74.4%
Failed-to-score rate
30.8%
21.1%
Clean-sheet rate
35.0%
78.9%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
17.9%
Clean-sheet rate
46.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
39
History Matches
39
0.75
Result entropy
0.94
1.82
Goal Difference Std
1.96
24.79
Stability score
5.52
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
39
Eligible Matches
39
3
Lead Matches
11
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
90.9%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
0.94
26
Trailing Matches
10
11.5%
Non-loss rate
20.0%
3.8%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
39
Halftime Coverage Matches
39
0.21
First Half Goals For Mean
0.56
1.05
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.38
0.15
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.56
0.92
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.62
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
91.08
Rest days
91.25
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
14
Normal Rest History Matches
16
0.36
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.81
24
Long Rest History Matches
22
0.71
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.59
Competition & season17 signals
170
15
Matches
15
0.53
PPG
1.80
13.3%
Win rate
53.3%
13.3%
Draw rate
20.0%
73.3%
Loss rate
26.7%
73.3%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
26.7%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
2.13
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.57
15
Current Competition Matches
15
0.53
Current Competition PPG
1.80
-2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.33
2
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.03
Portability PPG Std
0.11
0.05
Portability PPG Range
0.22
95.24
Portability Score
82.19
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
39
Clean History Matches
39
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-177.5
PPG-1.10
GF-0.77
GA0.97
PPG-1.27
PPG-0.68
PPG-1.60
PPG-1.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate-0.28
Failed-to-score rate43.6%
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate-0.14
Failed-to-score rate38.9%
History Matches0
Goals Mean-0.77
Goals Std-0.45
Scored 1+ rate-0.44
Scored 2+ rate-0.15
Scored 3+ rate-0.10
Venue Goals Mean-0.54
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.60
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.97
History Matches0
Conceded Mean0.97
Conceded Std0.17
Clean-sheet rate-0.28
Conceded 2+ rate38.5%
Conceded 3+ rate17.9%
Venue Conceded Mean0.29
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.45
History Matches0
Result entropy-0.19
Goal Difference Std-0.14
Stability score19.27
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.21
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.31
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches-8
Lead Win Rate9.1%
Lead Points Retention0.06
Trailing Matches16
Non-loss rate-0.08
Trailing Win Rate3.8%
Halftime Coverage Matches0
First Half Goals For Mean-0.36
First Half Goals Against Mean0.67
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.41
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.31
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.27
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-2.33
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.08
Portability PPG Range-0.17
Portability Score13.05
Rest days-0.17
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest Points Per Match-1.46
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.88
Current Team ELO-177.5
Current Opponent ELO177.5
Current ELO Difference-355.0
Expected score-0.47
History Matches0
Residual Mean-0.22
Overperformance-14.75
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.18

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Rostov W

L
Chertanovo W4–0Rostov W31 Oct · away
Pick: Chertanovo W 65% · hit
D
Rostov W1–1Rubin Kazan W24 Oct · home
Pick: Rubin Kazan W 53% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Krylya Sovetov W

L
Krylya Sovetov W0–2Spartak Moskva W31 Oct · home
Pick: Spartak Moskva W 51% · hit
L
Krylya Sovetov W0–1Zenit W24 Oct · home
Pick: Zenit W 56% · hit
L
Krasnodar W1–0Krylya Sovetov W18 Oct · away
Pick: Krylya Sovetov W 38% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Rostov W and Krylya Sovetov W meet in Supreme Division Women on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. The match is played at Stadion Lokomotiv Rostov na Donu. ScoreProb published its prediction on 3 Nov, 07:46 UTC: Rostov W win 12.0%, draw 17.9%, Krylya Sovetov W win 70.1%. The pick is Krylya Sovetov W win. Over 2.5 goals: 45.9%. Both teams to score: 37.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.