ScoreProb
Serie D - Girone I Italy Group I - 11 2026

AC Palermo vs Igea Virtus

AC Palermo Home · Elo 1,544
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Igea Virtus Away · Elo 1,549
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Igea Virtus win
AC Palermo win
28.7%
Draw
24.8%
Igea Virtus winPick
46.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes56.9%
No43.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.557.7%
Under 2.542.3%

How much we know

AC Palermo history35 matches
Igea Virtus history48 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 13:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (46.5%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Igea Virtus are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,544 against 1,549. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • AC Palermo score more

    1.69 goals a game over 35 matches for AC Palermo, against 1.44 over 48 for Igea Virtus.

  • Igea Virtus concede fewer

    AC Palermo concede 1.37 a game, Igea Virtus 1.21.

  • AC Palermo games more often go over 2.5 goals

    74% of AC Palermo matches, against 48% for Igea Virtus. The model puts this match at 58% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 11 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
AC Palermo
Igea Virtus
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1544.1
ELO
1549.3
35
ELO · Matches
48
1544.1
Current Team ELO
1549.3
1549.3
Current Opponent ELO
1544.1
-5.19
Current ELO Difference
5.19
0.49
Expected score
0.51
35
History Matches
48
0.06
Residual Mean
0.05
53.74
Overperformance
53.50
-0.15
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.08
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
1.40
1.20
Goals for per game
1.40
2.00
Goals against per game
2.20
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
1.30
1.30
Goals for per game
1.10
1.90
Goals against per game
1.50
40.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.10
1.35
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.94
1.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
0.83
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.20
0.61
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.69
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.62
Overall performance9 signals
90
35
Matches
48
1.71
PPG
1.60
51.4%
Win rate
43.8%
17.1%
Draw rate
29.2%
31.4%
Loss rate
27.1%
82.9%
Over 1.5 rate
77.1%
74.3%
Over 2.5 rate
47.9%
34.3%
Over 3.5 rate
27.1%
1.62
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.69
Venue performance10 signals
100
17
Matches
24
1.82
PPG
1.25
52.9%
Win rate
29.2%
23.5%
Draw rate
37.5%
23.5%
Loss rate
33.3%
88.2%
Over 1.5 rate
79.2%
76.5%
Over 2.5 rate
54.2%
35.3%
Over 3.5 rate
29.2%
1.68
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.70
17
History Matches
24
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.69
Goals for per game
1.44
82.9%
Scoring rate
79.2%
65.7%
BTTS rate
50.0%
1.82
Goals for per game
1.21
88.2%
Scoring rate
75.0%
64.7%
BTTS rate
54.2%
35
History Matches
48
1.69
Goals Mean
1.44
1.14
Goals Std
1.10
82.9%
Scored 1+ rate
79.2%
57.1%
Scored 2+ rate
43.8%
20.0%
Scored 3+ rate
16.7%
1.82
Venue Goals Mean
1.21
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.37
Goals against per game
1.21
80.0%
Conceding rate
64.6%
1.29
Goals against per game
1.50
76.5%
Conceding rate
70.8%
35
History Matches
48
1.37
Conceded Mean
1.21
0.96
Conceded Std
1.17
42.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
35.4%
14.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
16.7%
1.29
Venue Conceded Mean
1.50
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
35.4%
17.1%
Failed-to-score rate
20.8%
23.5%
Clean-sheet rate
29.2%
11.8%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
35.4%
17.1%
Failed-to-score rate
20.8%
23.5%
Clean-sheet rate
29.2%
11.8%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
35.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
35
History Matches
48
0.92
Result entropy
0.98
1.62
Goal Difference Std
1.69
8.24
Stability score
2.17
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
35
Eligible Matches
48
13
Lead Matches
18
76.9%
Lead Win Rate
77.8%
0.85
Lead Points Retention
0.85
9
Trailing Matches
14
44.4%
Non-loss rate
50.0%
33.3%
Trailing Win Rate
7.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
35
Halftime Coverage Matches
48
0.80
First Half Goals For Mean
0.69
0.63
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.60
0.89
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.75
0.74
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.60
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
182.0
Rest days
189.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
4
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.25
22
Normal Rest History Matches
28
1.64
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.57
11
Long Rest History Matches
15
2.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.93
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
1
Competition Season Count
3
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
—
Portability PPG Std
0.20
—
Portability PPG Range
0.40
—
Portability Score
71.41
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
35
Clean History Matches
48
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
ELO-5.19
PPG0.11
GF0.25
GA0.16
PPG0.57
PPG-0.20
PPG-0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-13
Clean-sheet rate-0.15
Failed-to-score rate-0.04
History Matches-7
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Failed-to-score rate-0.13
History Matches-13
Goals Mean0.25
Goals Std0.04
Scored 1+ rate3.7%
Scored 2+ rate13.4%
Scored 3+ rate3.3%
Venue Goals Mean0.62
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std0.40
History Matches-13
Conceded Mean0.16
Conceded Std-0.21
Clean-sheet rate-0.15
Conceded 2+ rate7.4%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Conceded Mean-0.21
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.37
History Matches-13
Result entropy-0.06
Goal Difference Std-0.07
Stability score6.07
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.38
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.06
Eligible Matches-13
Lead Matches-5
Lead Win Rate-0.01
Lead Points Retention-0.01
Trailing Matches-5
Non-loss rate-0.06
Trailing Win Rate26.2%
Halftime Coverage Matches-13
First Half Goals For Mean0.11
First Half Goals Against Mean0.02
Second Half Goals For Mean0.14
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.14
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Rest days-7.04
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-3
Short Rest Points Per Match0.75
Normal Rest History Matches-6
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.06
Long Rest History Matches-4
Long Rest Points Per Match0.07
Current Team ELO-5.19
Current Opponent ELO5.19
Current ELO Difference-10.38
Expected score-0.01
History Matches-13
Residual Mean0.01
Overperformance0.24
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.07

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

AC Palermo

W
Vigor Lamezia0–1AC Palermo1 Nov · away
Pick: AC Palermo 41% · hit
W
AC Palermo1–0Calcio Avola25 Oct · home
Pick: AC Palermo 66% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Igea Virtus

W
Gelbison0–1Igea Virtus28 Oct · away
Pick: Gelbison 47% · missed
W
Igea Virtus3–1Ragusa18 Oct · home
Pick: Igea Virtus 38% · hit
W
Igea Virtus3–2Reggina7 Oct · home
Pick: Reggina 41% · missed
D
Igea Virtus1–1Nissa4 Oct · home
Pick: Nissa 39% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

AC Palermo and Igea Virtus meet in Serie D - Girone I on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 13:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: AC Palermo win 28.7%, draw 24.8%, Igea Virtus win 46.5%. The pick is Igea Virtus win. Over 2.5 goals: 57.7%. Both teams to score: 56.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.